Which state will be the "Ohio" of 2008?

[Gustaf]

Given a close election, I think it'll be either Florida or Ohio. I'm currently leaning towards Florida, because it's bigger and seems to have more of a pro-Democrat trend (Ohio was mostly due to economic circumstances)

[Gustaf]

The closest state last time was Wisconsin. And the state closest to the average was Nevada. Neither of those was "the Ohio of 2004" as what we're talking about is not that, but a state of CONSIDERABLE SIZE which is very close, so that the winner of that state seems likely to win the election regardless of the out-come in other close states. In 2004 this was the case: while New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire were all close and went 2-2, Ohio decided it. Had Ohio swung the election would have tilted. Looking at it from that perspective, Ohio and Florida are the only big states likely to be that close next time around (Pennsylvania or Michigan being close would mean an assured GOP victory).

I expect New Hampshire to remain on the Democratic side, Nevada might come over to the Democratic side. New Mexico, Wisconsin and Iowa will probably remain pretty much dead centre. Colorado will become very close as well. Virginia will be closer than last time, but not closer then the above mentioned states.

And, of course, it all depends on the candidates.