UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

The (general) trend is for governments to do worse in Westminster byelections than polls suggest.

[CumbrianLefty]

Various local worthies now throwing their hats in the ring to be Labour's candidate in Wakefield.

[CumbrianLefty]

Parish might only get a small vote anyway, quite a few MPs restanding as Independents do.

(though I remain sceptical he will do this anyway)

[CumbrianLefty]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

[CumbrianLefty]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

Well, by most measures it ought to be an easier gain for them than North Shropshire…

Wasn't the Lib Dem Canidate over there also pretty unremarkable beyond being a local?

Yes, she had been the candidate who got 10% at the 2019 GE.

Overall, the Lib Dems need a smaller swing to win Tiverton and Honiton than happened in either Chesham and Amersham or North Shropshire, so it seems quite plausible that they could take it.

Not quite, C & A had a majority of "only" about 30% for the Tories in 2019.

(plus the LibDems actually started in second place there)

[CumbrianLefty]

As recent electoral evidence demonstrates, the council isn't that unpopular at all. Its hardly Bolton.

It may have been more a case of many of those wanting a "local" candidate putting all their eggs in one basket when that person was never likely to be selected for reasons already stated.

[CumbrianLefty]

No way that could possibly backfire on them, either.

[CumbrianLefty]

With the news of a rape arrest out today, we are presumably on track for yet another by-election in a Tory seat, although we don't know where just yet.  Shame it'll be too late to schedule it for June 23rd and have three on the same day (and all for the same sleazy reason).

I wondered how rare it is to have three by-elections on the same day, but I only had to go back to November 2012 to find not one but two instances (six by-elections overall!) all in the same month.

Any resulting byelection could be "twinned" with Leicester East, if Webbe hangs on a while longer.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

Military officers being Liberal Democrats is a sterotype ? I thought that was a solidly conservative group.

Paddy "SAS" Ashdown's ghost would like a word.

[CumbrianLefty]

Nominations close for Wakefield next Wednesday and I haven’t even seen a discussion about who the Tory candidate is.

They announced a shortlist yesterday:
- Nadeem Ahmed, councillor for Wakefield South (not in the constituency) and former leader of the Tory group on Wakefield council;
- Laura Weldon, losing candidate recently in Wakefield West and formerly associated with the Yorkshire Party
- Tanya Graham, candidate for Bradford South in the 2015 and 2017 general elections.

Speaking of the Yorkshire Party, the fairly prominent (in some circles anyway) former Tory David Herdson is standing for them.  UKIP also announced a candidate.

Beaten nearly 2 to 1 in what is often a fairly marginal Labour ward, maybe not the best omen.

[CumbrianLefty]

At least on paper, the Tory candidate for T/H looks fairly strong. I think any doubt about which of the two seats they were going to prioritise holding has been pretty much removed now.

[CumbrianLefty]

At least on paper, the Tory candidate for T/H looks fairly strong. I think any doubt about which of the two seats they were going to prioritise holding has been pretty much removed now.

I suspect very strongly that they will go right up to the spending limit - which for those who don't know is as high as £100,000 for by-elections; which is much higher than for constituency campaigning at a GE - to try to hang on there. It will probably be a very brutal, very nasty campaign.

Though they may struggle to make the LibDem hopeful in this one look scary.

[CumbrianLefty]

Disappointingly for observers of bizarre by-election candidacies, Neil Parish is not going to stand as an Independent to get his old seat back.

And no sign thus far of Galloway (or indeed his party) in Wakefield either.

Nominations for both seats close this afternoon.

[CumbrianLefty]

Always possible she resigns before that, given the appeal has now failed.

(and it would probably be best if she did)

EDIT: this was posted before the subsequent developments came to light. Morally speaking perhaps she should still resign, but another way of looking at things is that if Rob Roberts (remember him?) didn't then why should she?? And yes, any resulting byelection would be a total s***show.

[CumbrianLefty]

It would certainly be "amusing" if a certain somebody held back from standing in Wakefield because they were waiting for Leicester.......

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't believe there was ever any serious possibility of Galloway standing in Wakefield.

It was rumoured half-heartedly.

Maybe more seriously, some other Workers Party candidate was also mooted - especially when there was the kerfuffle over Labour's selection.

[CumbrianLefty]

The weird thing about that poll is Starmer was weirdly unpopular in Wakefield. In the nationwide polls it does vary a lot but that rating seems unusually low. This is just one poll and maybe the Tories are down by 20% with a sample skewed towards them.

All the politicians in the survey had massively negative ratings, Starmer was in mid-table.

Which does make me think it may be partly about the methodology, rather than Wakefield being much more hostile to them than the average.

[CumbrianLefty]

I might be imagining it but it's interesting that a fair few Conservative commentators (who are largely anti-Boris) seem to think they'll win Tiverton.

The only difference to Wakefield & Shropshire is that the reason for the resignation was rather hilarious & also short lived, and they seem to have at least have a local candidate. But the political picture looks a lot worse than it did in late December...

They are far from infallible of course, but bookies have the LibDems as low as 2/9 on to win there. So if they really believe that, they know what to do.....

[CumbrianLefty]

It was too soon for Cooper in 2020, I agree it is hers to lose next time round though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Usual caveats but there is genuine talk of people switching to Labour with some enthusiasm and also of the Conservative villages basically going on strike.

The interesting thing is that the norm for the last what 15 years has been for Labour to struggle in these sort of by-elections e.g Oldham, Rotherham.

I'm not sure which Oldham by-election you're referring to.  Oldham West & Royton 2015 was widely trailed as a bad performance (which is perhaps what you're remembering) but was actually a pretty respectable result, and Oldham East & Saddleworth 2011 wasn't that bad either (especially considering the circumstances).  The real near disaster in a Greater Manchester by-election was Heywood & Middleton 2014, which perhaps was a warning that the seat, which was lost in 2019, could be vulnerable.

I wouldn't consider Tory-held Wakefield to be very comparable to these, anyway.

Rotherham in 2012 wasn't at all bad given the wider circumstances, either (and its mostly forgotten now, but it was one of *the* top UKIP targets in 2015)

[CumbrianLefty]

Though isn't the point about Lembit Opik that he is very much estranged from the LibDems now?

[CumbrianLefty]

I think he did, yes?

One thing about T & H is that the Tory candidate - who appeared impressive on paper - has proved to be something of a liability on the campaign trail. Whereas the LibDems seem to have gone with pretty much the ideal choice for a potential mid-term protest such as this.

[CumbrianLefty]

Blair also went to Eddisbury and Hamilton S in 1999 I think.

Nearly losing the latter caused him to give up on it, apparently.

[CumbrianLefty]

To be fair, it seems unclear if she's a liability because she's a bad candidate, or because the Tory by-election strategy is to hide the candidate and rely on national messages and any candidate will perform poorly when the national brand is mud.

I understand that she has now released a, shall we say, "interesting" video.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hahahah oh I miss New Labour.

Chartered Accountant working for One North-East. Born in Hartlepool and educated at Manor Comprehensive School. Member of Hartlepool Borough Council for Rift House ward from 2002. Cabinet Member for Performance Management. Member of the GMB. Member of the North East Regional Board of the Labour Party.

The main themes of his campaign were:

'Shop-a-yob' to combat crime and anti-social behavior.

Lives here, went to school here, works here, uses the local hospital.

Stop 'Jody come lately' - remember her insult to the town.

Election literature available:

Ah those were the days indeed. That byelection probably influenced how Labour treated the rerun last year, despite all that had changed in the interim.