Paul Ryan 2020

[JMT]

Yes, I'm aware Paul Ryan endorsed Trump today. But it seems clear he did this because he really doesn't have another option. I think Ryan endorses Trump today knowing that Trump will lose the general election in the fall. So assuming Trump loses in November, do you think Paul Ryan runs for President in 2020 against Hillary Clinton? I think he will, he will have shaped the conservative agenda in the House as speaker for a few years at that point, and I expect that Clinton will be a rather unpopular president. Ryan could make the argument that someone with political experience is necessary, since Trump lost. 2020 will likely be Paul Ryan's best chance at winning the presidency, in my opinion. I think he would enter the race as the front runner and would likely be the nominee.

[JMT]

He might run, but I'm just a teensy bit skeptical that the base will run into the arms of a tempermentally moderate Reaganesque conservative and softie on immigration after nominating a bomb-throwing, street-fighting nationalist just four years prior.

I see what you're saying, but I also think Trump primary voters are unique in the sense that many of them aren't very involved in the political process. So long as Trump doesn't run again after losing, I think it's possible many of his voters don't show up to vote for other candidates. Also, now that the establishment knows that someone like Trump can actually be nominated, I think they will work earlier and harder to unite behind one candidate, and Paul Ryan will likely be that candidate. I don't think you will see a bunch of establishment types (like this year with Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Christie etc), but rather many will unite behind Paul Ryan. It's not a guarantee Ryan is nominated in 2020, but I at least think he starts out as the favorite.