Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

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While I'd normally point out that extremely high turnout (2016-like turnout) would imply that Republicans are turning out in high numbers as well, the fact is, if turnout is like this in Texas, that probably means that a lot of new voters or "unlikely" voters are turning out, which definitely helps Democrats more.

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Another big day in Clark https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054508750390743040

That's good, but it'll be important to see if the party breakdown is more like Saturday or Sunday.

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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054558729935323136

Democrats win Washoe by a sizeable margin again. High numbers of votes as well.

That's a 7 point win, a little less than before, but an additional 600 votes to the D margin.

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These numbers in Texas do look pretty insane, but I'd be curious to see what more rural counties look like. If turnout is extremely high in ruby red Republican territory as well, that doesn't bode nearly as well for Beto.

Some rural counties in Nevada are reporting, and turnout seems higher than Saturday, like in Washoe. Republicans were able to cut into the Democrat margin a bit as a result. While Clark will likely more than offset that, it does present a possible problem for Democrats: High Republican turnout could limit the impact of high Democratic turnout.

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Clark is in, 28K voted, but the Democratic advantage was about the same as it was on Sunday, about 44-37. That means a net gain of 2K from Clark itself, and Democrats are now ahead by 7.2K in the in person vote, 4.8K overall. They're padding to their lead, but they need to hope that unaffiliated voters are going to break Democratic, since a 7% win in Clark isn't going to be enough.

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This thread makes me want to roll my eyes out of my head

Why? Do you not trust the analysis of expert Atlas posters over some rando called Steve Schale?

it's not analysis dude, it's raw numbers.

True, but there are many different ways to read the numbers, and 1-3 days of in person voting really isn’t enough to conclude anything.

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This thread makes me want to roll my eyes out of my head

Why? Do you not trust the analysis of expert Atlas posters over some rando called Steve Schale?

it's not analysis dude, it's raw numbers.

True, but there are many different ways to read the numbers, and 1-3 days of in person voting really isn’t enough to conclude anything.

And I didn't conclude anything rather what it's obvious, bigger R percentage in big counties in comparison with total numbers. Like in Clarke in NV. And I cautioned many times that comparison is day 1 with total numbers. And it's no worse than what Schale does. He mentions for example turnout in Broward but fails to mention composition of that turnout. We'll see what happens next but day 1 is all we have.  

Sure, but take NV, where early voting is the most indicative. While Republicans have beaten their registration numbers in Clark more than Democrats in 2 out of the past 3 days, and rurals look good for Republicans, Washoe is a glaring exception so far. The in person vote in Washoe so far nearly offsets all of the numbers from the rurals without counting Clark at all. While things could change in Washoe over the next few days, the same can be said for every other county.

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This thread makes me want to roll my eyes out of my head

Why? Do you not trust the analysis of expert Atlas posters over some rando called Steve Schale?

it's not analysis dude, it's raw numbers.

True, but there are many different ways to read the numbers, and 1-3 days of in person voting really isn’t enough to conclude anything.

And I didn't conclude anything rather what it's obvious, bigger R percentage in big counties in comparison with total numbers. Like in Clarke in NV. And I cautioned many times that comparison is day 1 with total numbers. And it's no worse than what Schale does. He mentions for example turnout in Broward but fails to mention composition of that turnout. We'll see what happens next but day 1 is all we have.  

Sure, but take NV, where early voting is the most indicative. While Republicans have beaten their registration numbers in Clark more than Democrats in 2 out of the past 3 days, and rurals look good for Republicans, Washoe is a glaring exception so far. The in person vote in Washoe so far nearly offsets all of the numbers from the rurals without counting Clark at all. While things could change in Washoe over the next few days, the same can be said for every other county.

But at this point you're not contradicting anything I've said. I've been writing about NV and Washoe being bad for Republicans. Also have written that Washoe could be bad omen for Republicans nationaly, that they could do well enough in Dem leading counties and rural counties but in swing counties they could be evaporated. Of course we are guessing. But it would be hard not to mention dismissing the early vote now versus only couple of days ago when things looke much better for Dems.

I'm not trying to contradict you, simply to say that it's early to be making conclusions, since the current numbers could lead to a lot of different ones.

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You guys learned nothing from early voting projections in 2016, huh? It's only useful in very few states, like NV.

They're certainly not that useful for making actual projections, but I think they can alert us to some possibilities, for example, the idea that high Democratic turnout might not be enough to cause a blue wave if Republican turnout is also very high.

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All NV counties have now updated day 2 and Dems have a total lead of around 3200 votes counting the absentees.

*4200

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The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

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The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

If they win Washoe by a healthy margin, a high single-digit margin is probably enough in Clark. Of course, this is all speculation, since we don't know who Indies are voting for, or how much crossover voting there will be.

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The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

It's been 3 days.

But we are already seeing monster turnout already in a lot of areas. Heck Ralston practically wrote “Heller is going to survive” in his opt this morning.

That's not what he said, and he mentioned the possibility of rural turnout being cannibalized. We'll see over the next few days how real of a possibility that is.

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The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

It's been 3 days.

But we are already seeing monster turnout already in a lot of areas. Heck Ralston practically wrote “Heller is going to survive” in his opt this morning.

That's not what he said, and he mentioned the possibility of rural turnout being cannibalized. We'll see over the next few days how real of a possibility that is.

But you touched on the problem that’s bothering me.We are seeing massive rural vote turnout already when this group is suppose to suck during midterms. After all the crap Trump has done we should be hearing the opposite. Why is Clark not murdering? Why are we doing this bad in Arizona? Why are we doing so bad in Indiana? We can’t just sit back and say “well they have registration advantage there” because then we’re just conceding AZ, MO, ND, IN, and MT based on partisanship alone

The idea is that the blue wave is real if Democrats are winning Independents by a decent margin, and at least peeling off *some* voters who are still registered Republicans. We saw rural turnout in Nevada high enough on *one day* so far to match Washoe and Clark. Democrats are still ahead statewide, even counting absentees. If Democrats still only hold a tiny lead by the end of the week or are behind, and rural turnout is consistently high, then it might be time to start to worry.

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A few rurals in NV just came in, looks like a net gain of about 750 votes for the Republicans. Lower turnout in some (Douglas went from 1,424 to 1,002), roughly the same in others (Nye: 942 -> 972.) Turnout looks to be high again in Clark today, so Democrats might be able to pad to their margin if they get a strong showing there and in Washoe.

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A few rurals in NV just came in, looks like a net gain of about 750 votes for the Republicans. Lower turnout in some (Douglas went from 1,424 to 1,002), roughly the same in others (Nye: 942 -> 972.) Turnout looks to be high again in Clark today, so Democrats might be able to pad to their margin if they get a strong showing there and in Washoe.

They need Douglas to do well since it’s larger than many of the other rurals

Yeah, the good news for Democrats is that Lyon is likely the only remaining county where Republicans could reduce the margin quite a bit more. Most of the other rural counties are too small, and their edge in Carson City (right now, at least) is too narrow. If Democrats do well in Washoe and Clark, they'll have a much better day today than yesterday.

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I'll concede that the first four days (assuming Clark is still about a 7-point win for Democrats, probably not a safe assumption) have not been great for Democrats in Nevada, but calling the race for Heller right now is definitely premature.

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The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

That Spokane number is impressive. It'll be interesting to see if it holds up, even though I'm kind of bearish on Brown's chances.

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Clark was a bit better for Democrats today. 25.4K voted, Democrats won by about 10% (45.2-35.3), padding their lead by 2.5K.

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So I gather the Democrats' overall lead in Nevada right now is around 5%, correct?

Then, two things. How does that compare to 1. voter registration in the State, and 2. the Democrats'  lead in the early vote as of this time in 2016 and 2010?

1. Democrats have a 7-point registration advantage, so Republicans are overperforming a bit compared to that, but according to Ralston, that's to be expected.

2. I can't calculate that exactly, but I know that Democrats had a 75K lead in Clark in 2016, and a 25K lead in 2010.

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2. I can't calculate that exactly, but I know that Democrats had a 75K lead in Clark in 2016, and a 25K lead in 2010.

...that's at the end of early voting, right? If they had a 25K lead AT THIS POINT in 2010 then we're royally screwed.

Pretty sure he means end of the early vote cycle.

Yes, at the end of the cycle my apologies for not making that clearer. Democrats have a 10K advantage overall in Clark, so they're definitely on their way to beat the 2010 number, though some of that could be due to population growth.

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McDonald is a hack, end of story.

To be fair, anyone saying that these numbers must mean someone will win, rather than being suggestive of certain possibilities, is a hack.

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Ignore the troll, guys. Just like we should be ignoring the troll's username, since this is a different and unique year.

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Turnout in Clark is 17k at 3pm, so a little less than previous days, will probably be around 20k at the end of the day.

Could end up a bit higher, since it was roughly the same yesterday at 3 PM. I'd guess around 22-23K

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Turnout in Clark is 17k at 3pm, so a little less than previous days, will probably be around 20k at the end of the day.

Could end up a bit higher, since it was roughly the same yesterday at 3 PM. I'd guess around 22-23K

It was 19k yesterday at 3pm

That was Monday, yesterday it was 17K.