2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

So in Maharashtra the seat sharing would be

NDA
BJP      152
SHS     124
RPI(A)     4 (will contest on BJP symbol)
SSP         3 (will contest on BJP symbol)
RKS         3 (SWP splinter, will contest on BJP symbol)
RSP         2 (will contest on BJP symbol)

UPA
INC      145
NCP     123
PWP        6
SWP        4
RPI(K)     3
BVA         3
BRSP       2 (BSP splinter)
Minor       2

SP's alliance with UPA fell through and will not be part of UPA alliance

UPA has some weak candidates in a bunch of seats where it is clear they are tactically backing NMS or BJP/SHS rebel to take down NDA.

NMS will contest 103 seats, mostly in Coastal Maharashtra and could cut into SHS votes.  VBA-AIMIM alliance collapsed so VBA will contest all 288 seats with AIMIM contesting 44.  UPA has to hope that the collapse of the VBA-AIMIM alliance means the anti-NDA marginal Dalit and Muslim votes will shift back to UPA to prevent a NDA total landslide.

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat poll for Maharashtra has massive landslide for BJP-SHS over INC-NCP




Medium estimate

             Seat      Vote Share
NDA      227           57%
 BJP        143           33%
 SHS         84           24%
UPA        50           26%
 INC         22           11%
 NCP        28           15%
NMS        0             1%
AIMIM     0             2%
Others   11           14%



Jan Ki Baat poll for Haryana also has massive BJP landslide




Medium projection
       
               Seat     Vote share
BJP             68           56.7%
INC              8            9.6%
INLD-SAD     1            3.1%             
JJP               8          26.7%
Others          5            4.9%

What this poll has is NDA holding its 2019 LS vote share while UPA vote share drifts to other regional rivals and/or minor candidates/rebels.   While NDA will win both by a good margin I am not sure they can hold their 2019 LS vote share.  The  Haryana poll is very problematic for INC not because of the BJP vote share but that JJP is the main rival to BJP versus INC.   If true then INC might be in terminal decline in  Haryana.

[jaichind]

These assembly elections has BJP double down with its 2014 strategy of spurring the dominate caste of the state to consolidate a coalition of all non-Muslim forces outside of dominate caste and then use Modi to make nationalist appeals to get enough of the dominate caste to vote BJP to form a massive majority.  In Maharashtra BJP has worked to consolidate all non-Maratha non-Muslim vote and then use revocation of Article 370 of J&K to rally the nationalist sentiment of Marathas to vote BJP.  The BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis is a non-Maratha Upper caste background is the glue in this strategy.  In Haryana the dominate caste are Jats the BJP strategy is the same where it consolidates all non-Jat non-Muslims and then use its nationalist appeal to rope in enough Jat votes to vote BJP.  The BJP CM Manohar Lal Khattar who is a non-Jat Upper Caste background is also the glue of that strategy.    Modi then plays the role of the nationalist rallying point so the BJP vote becomes a cross-caste nationalist vote PLUS the consolidation of all non-dominate caste vote.

[jaichind]

Cvoter poll.

Maharashtra NDA 194 UPA 85 Others 9. 
Haryana BJP 83 INC 4 Others 3

The Haryana poll result is massive.  I think both polls underestimate Others

[Conservatopia]

In general how do each of the castes vote?
And what about the language groups?
I saw something once about Modi being from a water carrying caste - has this had any effect?

[jaichind]

In general how do each of the castes vote?
And what about the language groups?
I saw something once about Modi being from a water carrying caste - has this had any effect?

BJP strong with Upper Castes and OBCs and weak in Muslims.  Some Upper Caste support for INC and depending on the state non-BJP OBC voters would vote for regional parties while non-BJP Dalit votes would vote INC or BSP.  Non-BJP tribal vote goes to INC or some regional party depending on the state.

Nationwide CSDS post-election survey on BJP vote

It seems the real growth of the NDA are with OBC voters.  The NDA growth with Upper Caste was relatively small when compared to the NDA growth with OBCs.  Surprisingly Dalit and Tribal votes also swung toward NDA.

                                    BJP               BJP allies
                             2014   2019      2014     2019
All Hindus                  36    44            7           8
Hindu Upper castes     47    52            9          7
Hindu OBCs               34     44           8         10
Hindu Dalits               24     34           6           7
Hindu Adivasis            37    44           3           2
Muslims                      8      8            1           1
Christians                   7     11          10           5
Sikhs                        16    11           33         20

Vote share of BJP in states by language group.  BJP very strong in Hindi states and getting stronger in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states while weak in Dravidan and Sino-Tibetian states.  Of course Sino-Tibetian states are easier to co-op.

Back on the topic of NDA/BJP performance in states grouped by languages. I also computed vote share in the 1991-2019 period by such groups.

NDA total
                    1991    1996    1998     1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             29.5%   37.1%  40.7%  42.8%  34.7%  31.8%  46.4%  55.3%
Indo-Aryan    22.0%   21.7%  39.9%  41.1%  38.4%  28.0%  37.5%  48.1%
Sino-Tibetian   5.3%    5.1%   13.2%  10.1%  18.5%   7.2%   31.2%  29.0%
Dravidian        5.5%    4.7%   27.0%  40.3%  33.5%   3.9%   26.2%  17.9%
Total            20.9%   23.9%   37.5%  41.3%   35.8% 24.1%  38.9%   45.4%

BJP only
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             29.5%  32.1%   35.7%  34.1%  30.1%  25.9%  44.2%  49.6%
Indo-Aryan    19.9%  17.6%   22.2%  23.1%  22.4%  20.4%  29.9%  39.8%
Sino-Tibetian   5.3%    5.1%    9.0%    5.6%   13.2%   7.2%  11.4%  19.8%
Dravdian         5.4%    4.6%   12.1%   8.2%    7.7%    3.7%    6.9%    7.2%
Total             20.1%  20.3%   25.6%  24.0%  22.3%  18.7%  31.1%  37.6%

BJP allies
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi              0.0%    5.0%    5.0%    8.7%    4.6%   6.0%    2.2%   5.7%
Indo-Aryan     2.1%    4.1%   17.7%  18.1%  16.0%   7.7%    7.6%   8.4%
Sino-Tibetian   0.0%   0.0%     4.2%    4.5%    5.3%   0.0%  19.8%   9.2%
Dravidain        0.0%   0.1%   15.0%   32.2%  25.8%   0.2%  19.3% 10.7%
Total              0.8%    3.6%   11.8%   17.3%  13.5%   5.4%   7.8%    7.7%

Some main takeaways
1) BJP core strength in the 1990s was in the Hindi areas but had a solid based of around 20% in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas where they were able to leverage that base to gain allies in 1996-2004.
2) BJP always weak in Dravidian area and only did well in the 1998-1999 period due to its ability to gain allies (AIADMK/DMK and NTRTDP/TDP).  The 1998 BJP vote share in Dravidian states in 1998 is artificially high as BJP ally in undivided AP, NTRTDP, let BJP run in most LS seats with their support as NTRTDP was focused on winning power at the state assembly level.
3) After 2004 defeat BJP lost a lot of allies which drove down its vote share across the board as it became not viable in many states in 2009
4) The 2014 surge was mostly in Hindi areas and to some extent non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas while regaining some allies in Dravidian areas (PMK/DMDK/MDMK and TDP)
5) The 2019 surge was mostly in Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas while gaining some more in Hindi areas but the gains are mostly due to new allies (JD(U) in Bihar and AJSU in Jharkhand) while in Dravidian areas the BJP brand lost it allies (TDP) or dragged down the performance of new allies (AIADMK)
6) As of 2019 the BJP is truely a Hindu Indo-Aryan party that dominates that region with the help of allies.
7) The INC position in 2019 is not that dire.  In 2019 INC won 19.7% of the vote with UPA winning 27.1% of the vote.  Both numbers are higher than BJP (18.7%) and NDA (24.1%) respectively in 2009.   In many ways 2019 wiped out a lot of rivals of INC for the main opponent to the BJP. If and when BJP declines the INC is expected to gain once it can survive the current crisis of leadership.

As for Modi being from a OBC caste that is part of his appeal.  The BJP Hindu nationalism narrative is to overcome traditional OBC and Dalit hostilely to traditional Upper caste social domination  by offering them with being part of the same ruling bloc.  Upper caste members will still be the leaders overall due to merit and social capital issues but there is no reason why an OBC like Modi cannot be made the leader of the overall movement.  Modi is a symbol of the OBC joining up with the Hindu nationalist narrative.

[jaichind]

With BJP heading to a landslide re-election in Haryana led by BJP CM Manohar Lal Khattar he is already being hailed as the "4th Lal" of Haryana politics.  The 4 Lals pretty much controlled the CM position except for the 2005-2014 CM and INC Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda.

The key attribute of Haryana politics are the domination of Haryana by the land owning Jats who make up 27% of the population and non-Jat coalitions to try to contain Jat power.  Haryana politics from the 1960s to 2005 are dominated by the "3 Lals"

Bansi Lal (who is a Jat)


Devi Lal (who is also a Jat)


And Bhajan Lal (who is a non-Jat)

 
The "3 Lals"

 

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra it is clear that BJP-SHS will sweep to victory.  Yet both parties are sparing no effort or expense in their campaigning.  This is because the real race is between BJP and SHS.  Both are trying to win the most seats to put them in a better position in the post-election bargaining. SHS is determined to get the DCM spot for Aditya Thackeray if not the CM spot.  Given the seat allocation between BJP and SHS it is clear that the seats that the SHS will end up with as a RATIO of the seats BJP will end up with will be better than 1:2 in 2014.  This puts pressure on BJP as even if the BJP is able to continue holding the CM spot having a SHS DCM means that the SHS will be able to poke its nose in all aspects of the BJP administration.  This is why toward the end of the campaign there are some signs of snipping between BJP and SHS leaders given this tension and the fact that INC-NCP seems to be well beaten.

[jaichind]

Voting in progress.  Turnout so far does not seem that high in either Maharashtra or Haryana with rural turnout higher than urban turnout so far.

[jaichind]

Higher rural turnout is not positive for BJP.  There is an acute economic slowdown which is mostly manifesting itself in fall in agriculture prices plus a fall in rural demand.  So if there is going to be an anti-incumbent vote it will take place in rural areas.  None of this would take away the NDA landslides but might make it smaller than expected.

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 4pm  Maharashtra 43.84%  Haryana 50.83%.  Maharashtra turnout seems low 

[jaichind]

Maharashtra exit polls

Times Now:
BJP+: 230
Cong+: 48
Others: 10

India Today:
BJP+: 181
Cong+: 80
Others: 27

CNN News 18:
BJP+: 243
Cong+: 41
Others: 4

Republic:
BJP+: 223
Cong+: 54
Others: 11

ABP News
BJP+: 204
Cong+: 69
Others: 15

VDPA:
BJP+: 214
Cong+: 59
Others: 15

[jaichind]

Haryana exit polls

TIMES NOW
BJP+: 71
Cong+:11
Others:8

CNN NEWS 18
BJP+: 75
Cong+: 10
Others: 2

NEWS X
BJP+: 78
Cong+: 10
Others: 2

REPUBLIC
BJP+: 58
Cong+17
INLD: 0
JJP: 7
Others: 8

VDPA:
BJP  74
INC 7
JJP  6
INLD 0
Others 3

[jaichind]

VDPA exit polls have vote shares

Haryana  
INLD-SAD have alliance


Without Modi on the ballot the 2019 LS BJP Jat vote flows to JJP but BJP strong with non-Jat Hindu vote including Dalits

 

Maharashtra


VBA cut into the INC Dalit vote, BJP kept its 2019 LS Maratha vote despite Modi not being on the ballot.   Maharashtra Buddhists are all ex-Dalits that now vote RPI which is the basis of VBA so not a surprise BVA swept the Buddhists vote

[jaichind]

News 18 Maharashtra exit poll is massive for BJP-SHS with BJP winning a majority on its own.  But Others with 4 seems fishy as I am sure more than 4 VBA, AIMIM and rebels of all stripes have won



Vote share wise it has NDA beating UPA 52% to 30%

[jaichind]

Times Now also have massive BJP-SHS landslide in Maharashtra

[jaichind]

News 18 Haryana exit poll also massive for BJP


Vote share wise it has BJP beating INC 50% to 23% with JJP at 15%

[jaichind]

Maharashtra poll of polls so far

[jaichind]

Haryana poll of polls so far

[jaichind]

Well for Haryana at least INC made it into double digits in terms of seats and seems to be the strongest  opposition party which I guess is some sort of consolation

[jaichind]

Haryana TV9-Cicero exit poll


For Maharashtra it has NDA 197 UPA 75
 

[jaichind]

NDTV poll of polls.



Overall Maharashtra better for BJP-SHS than what I would expect and  Haryana worse for BJP then I would expect. It seems it has to do with the 2019 LS Modi wave Maratha vote staying with NDA in Maharashtra while the 2019 LS Modi wave Jat vote going over to JJP in Haryana.

[jaichind]

Republic TV exit poll
BJP+: 223
Cong+: 54
Others: 11

Vote share is massive

NDA    57
 BJP      33
 SHS     24
UPA    26
 INC     11
 NCP     15
Others 16

Which I do not buy.  If NDA-UPA vote share split is 57 to 26 then NDA seat count should be something like 260 out of 288

[jaichind]

Times Now poll of polls

[jaichind]

REPUBLIC TV exit poll

BJP+: 58
Cong+17
INLD: 0
JJP: 7
Others: 8

Vote share is
BJP     56%
INC     18%
INLD     7%
JJP      10%
Others  9%

Looks fishy.  BJP at 56% should mean BJP be at least 75 out 90 seats and not 58