The absentee/early vote thread

[Speed of Sound]

Thanks for such a thorough update, NOVA! These numbers are indeed encouraging.

[Speed of Sound]

This sounds good out of FL:

@joshuarhicks

@steveschale in other FLA news , Broward was stronger in turnout today & Palm Beach had their best EV day yet! still waiting on Miami-Dade.

[Dr. Arch]

This sounds good out of FL:

@joshuarhicks

@steveschale in other FLA news , Broward was stronger in turnout today & Palm Beach had their best EV day yet! still waiting on Miami-Dade.

Beautiful

[Xing]

But I thought we were wrong to be confident about Clinton in FL! Obviously, there's still a week to go, but the fact that a lot of Latinos in Florida might be voting for Hillary despite not being registered with either party, or even being registered as Republicans should help some red avatars relax a bit.

[psychprofessor]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith
Turnout in Florida across all race/ethnicity is up relative to 2012, 8 days out:
Black up 49%
Hispanic up 152%
White up 72%

@paulythegun

[JerryArkansas]

I just saw a tweet which made me think about all the worry in Florida with black voters.  Turnout among them is up compared to 2012, however due to huge surge in both whites and Hispanics it isn't showing up in the percentages. 

[dspNY]

Ralston:

Dems led by 300 votes in Washoe at this time in 2012
Dems lead by 1900 votes in Washoe now

[Speed of Sound]

I just saw a tweet which made me think about all the worry in Florida with black voters.  Turnout among them is up compared to 2012, however due to huge surge in both whites and Hispanics it isn't showing up in the percentages. 

If (***and only if***) the white growth is a split growth between educated and not, it's a great sign.

[BoAtlantis]

If Tom Bonier is right (And I trust he is), it seems that pollsters trimming their samples to "extremely likely" voters end up missing out on a lot of low-propensity voters that tell pollsters they're not likely to vote but did go on to vote. These voters are much more likely to be Democratic.

[psychprofessor]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith
Turnout in Florida across all race/ethnicity is up relative to 2012, 8 days out:
Black up 49%
Hispanic up 152%
White up 72%

@paulythegun

please no more florida in the bag for trump with this huge surfe in latino turnout

[ApatheticAustrian]

as i said.

black is up...all others are even more up.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Wisconsin early vote so far: 51% Dem, 37% Rep. In 2012 it was: 46% Dem, 39% Rep
2012: 46% Dem, 39% Rep, 15% Other (231,000)
2016: 51% Dem, 37% Rep, 12% Other (446,000)

[Speed of Sound]

Those WI numbers look good indeed.

[dspNY]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith
Turnout in Florida across all race/ethnicity is up relative to 2012, 8 days out:
Black up 49%
Hispanic up 152%
White up 72%

@paulythegun

please no more florida in the bag for trump with this huge surfe in latino turnout

If African-American turnout increases come close to white turnout increases then Florida is in the bag for Hillary

[Badger]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 11/1

Ballots requested:

DEM: 252,589
GOP: 202,634
IND: 136,250
Other: 1,962

Ballots cast:

DEM: 205,540
GOP: 162,467
IND: 102,623
Other: 1,455

Dem ballot request lead stays around 50K and their overall vote lead is 43K. I'd say a little below par

again, compare the difference in percentage rather than raw numbers to 2012. I believe Clinton is only nominally behind.

[ApatheticAustrian]

what is the possible maximum for hispanic florida voting share....20%?

[Storebought]

If early vote results are available for Ohio please report them.

[Speed of Sound]

If early vote results are available for Ohio please report them.

I'm afraid I haven't seen much today, but that's one state where I don't have any of the connections. Hopefully we'll hear soon.

[Maxwell]

Wisconsin early vote so far: 51% Dem, 37% Rep. In 2012 it was: 46% Dem, 39% Rep
2012: 46% Dem, 39% Rep, 15% Other (231,000)
2016: 51% Dem, 37% Rep, 12% Other (446,000)

relax bruh - it's all Trump Dems folks!

[Xing]

Do people really think that Hillary is in danger of losing Wisconsin? If Marquette somehow shows a tied race or Trump ahead, then there might be cause for concern, but it seems like all the talk about Wisconsin being winnable for Trump has been just that, talk. Polls have consistently had Hillary ahead, and these early votes don't suggest a strong R trend in the state.

[IceSpear]

Wisconsin early vote so far: 51% Dem, 37% Rep. In 2012 it was: 46% Dem, 39% Rep
2012: 46% Dem, 39% Rep, 15% Other (231,000)
2016: 51% Dem, 37% Rep, 12% Other (446,000)

relax bruh - it's all Trump Dems folks!

All those Reagan Democrats in Madison!

[psychprofessor]

Do people really think that Hillary is in danger of losing Wisconsin? If Marquette somehow shows a tied race or Trump ahead, then there might be cause for concern, but it seems like all the talk about Wisconsin being winnable for Trump has been just that, talk. Polls have consistently had Hillary ahead, and these early votes don't suggest a strong R trend in the state.

charles franklin, the marquette pollster director has a very stringent LV screen; combined with polling at the height of comey-gate i wouldn't be surprised with a close tesult. i wonder what he finds with the early vote?

[Badger]

Compared to Obama (which is OK) or compared to Gore/Kerry (which is not OK)

I'm not sure. This is my first election that I've canvassed in. It's not that they aren't voting - it seems like all the older (30 - 35+) African Americans I've talked to are definitely voting.. it's the younger ones. I have noticed a steep decline in interest between knocking on a middle+ age black voter's door and a <30 door. It doesn't seem like they are against Hillary, but they just seem really turned off to the whole thing. However, most of them said they were going to vote, but it sounded to me like a 50/50 or maybe 60/40 chance that they vote as opposed to 80/20 for the older folks.

did you really just call 30 and up "older"?

[Speed of Sound]

The selected results earlier already implied this, but:

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[Badger]

as i said.

black is up...all others are even more up.

but the end result is the same. if white voters are an increased share of the electorate, Trump benefits bigly.