UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Clyde1998]

Final round of Ashcroft constituency polling:

Battersea: Con 12 ahead of Lab
Croydon Central: Con 4 ahead of Lab
Norwich North: Lab 2 ahead of Con
Peterborough: Lab 2 ahead of Con
Pudsey: Con 1 ahead of Lab
Stourbridge: Con 2 ahead of Lab
Wirral West: Lab 3 ahead of Con

North Cornwall: LD 2 ahead of Con

Dumfriesshire et al: SNP 11 ahead of Con
East Renfrewshire: SNP 3 ahead of Lab

Take with as much salt as you want, but there's something for everyone there.

(And also remember that even if you trust the sampling, there's still a margin of error, as conventionally defined, of about 6 percentage points for the lead.)

East Renfrewshire seems to be affected by tactical voting (assuming consistent data).

Labour up 5% on April, Conservatives down 5% - others move within the MoE.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov Scotland:
SNP - 49% (N/C)
Lab - 26% (+1)
Con - 15% (-2)
Lib - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 2% (-1)
Grn - 1% (N/C)

All movements are within the margin of error.

[Clyde1998]

What Time Does Each Constituency Declare?

Some were quite a bit off last time (some by well over an hour) - so I've started getting a list of when they declared in 2010.

I've found Scotland's 2010 declaration times so far:
00:45 - East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow, Lanark & Hamilton East, Rutherglen & Hamilton West
01:00 - Motherwell & Wishaw
01:10 - Na h-Eileanan an Iar
01:30 - East Lothian; Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath; North East Fife
01:35 - Kilmarnock & Loudoun; Falkirk
01:45 - Inverclyde;  Livingston
01:55 - Linlithgow & Falkirk East
02:00 - Angus; Dunfermline & Fife West; Glenrothes; Paisley & Renfrewshire South; Dundee East
02:05 - Coatbridge; Chryston & Bellshill; Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East
02:06 - Glasgow East
02:15 - Airdrie & Shotts; Paisley & Renfrewshire North; Midlothian
02:18 - Glasgow Central
02:20 - Stirling
02:30 - Perth & Perthshire North; Renfrewshire East; Dunbartonshire West
02:33 - Glasgow North
02:35 - Dundee West
02:40 - Moray; Berwickshire; Roxburgh & Selkirk
02:45 - Glasgow South West
02:47 - Edinburgh East
02:50 - Dunbartonshire East
02:55 - Glasgow South
03:07 - Edinburgh South West
03:10 - Glasgow North West; Banff & Buchan
03:13 - Glasgow North East
03:15 - Aberdeen South; Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross; Gordon; Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine; Edinburgh North & Leith
03:20 - Ayrshire North & Arran
03:25 - Ayrshire Central; Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
03:30 - Dumfries & Galloway
03:32 - Edinburgh West
03:45 - Aberdeen North
03:50 - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey; Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
04:05 - Ochil & Perthshire South
04:39 - Ross, Skye & Lochaber
04:55 - Edinburgh South
06:00 - Orkney & Shetland
13:30 - Argyll & Bute

[Clyde1998]

I got:

SNP - 98%
Green - 97%
Liebour - 95%
Plaid Cymru - 91%
Fib Dem - 89%
Sinn Fein - 87%
Conservative - 52%
UKIP - 44%
BNP - 37%
DUP - 24%

[Clyde1998]

ITV production workers are going on strike, but it will not be tomorrow - as originally planned. The election coverage on ITV will be unaffected as a result.

They're striking on the 14th instead.

[Clyde1998]

Hmm, to watch Channel 4's Paxman/Mitchell coverage or stick with the classic Beeb coverage? Decisions, decisions.

I'm planning on watching the Sky News coverage - I might see if Channel 4's coverage is any good though before making my final decision.

Out of the two you've said - I'd go with Channel 4.

[Clyde1998]

@YouGov: Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

[Clyde1998]

The SNP has really screwed Labor, and badly, hasn't it?

Not necessarily. Although the SNP will back up Labour in the event of a hung parliament.

YouGov have the SNP leading in 51 seats in Scotland, but only clearly ahead in 38. A total of 17 seats in Scotland are "too close to call" - most of these are between the SNP and Labour. If the SNP gain most of them - then yes. If Labour manage to win most of them then maybe.

I'd think the SNP will win around 45 seats, with Labour on around 10 in Scotland.

[Clyde1998]

@YouGov: Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

The outcome that allows the SNP to force another election at any time of their choosing, assuming that the Tories go along with it. Not good.

It's needs a 2/3s majority to dissolve Parliament now - under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act.

[Clyde1998]

@YouGov: Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

The outcome that allows the SNP to force another election at any time of their choosing, assuming that the Tories go along with it. Not good.

It's needs a 2/3s majority to dissolve Parliament now - under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act.

That's option 1. I was thinking of option 2, which does not require a two thirds vote (copy and pasted from the BBC site):

The Fixed-Term Parliament Act - passed by the Lib Dems and Conservatives to make their coalition less likely to collapse - has set the date of the next election in May 2020.
An election can only be held before that date if:

1. Two-thirds of MPs vote for it. In practice, that would mean it would need to be supported by both Labour and the Conservatives

2. A motion of "no confidence" in the government is passed by a simple majority of MPs. An election must then be called within 14 days unless a new government can win a confidence vote before that period is up

I doubt the SNP would vote down a Labour government; they'd be risking getting a Conservative one...

[Clyde1998]

Survation/Scotland:
SNP 48.9%
Labour 24.8%
Conservatives 15.5%
Liberal Democrats 5.9%