UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Clyde1998]

Here's my forecast using the average of the polls in the first week



Conservatives 273
Labour 302
Liberal Democrats 38
Scottish Nationalists 15
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1
Speaker 1

I will be forecasting Northern Ireland once nominations close today

Are the seats in white ties?

[Clyde1998]

Panelbase (heaps of salt probably a necessity): Lab 37, Con 31, UKIP 15, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4

That's got the looks of an outlier, without even looking at the datatables...

[Clyde1998]

Ed's personality ratings are finally above DC, after 4 years haha. I said that when the public got to see him, and got to see his policies they'd move towards him. Nom-doms yesterday, and the Trident smear today have been a gift to Labour. The tories appear to be ing up their campaign

Interesting that the nationalist leaders are the top two - is that because of a high number of don't knows?

Great to see Farage's approval rating fall off the edge of a cliff in this poll.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov/Times Scotland Poll:
SNP - 49% (+4%)
Lab - 25% (-3%)
Con - 18% (+2%)
Lib - 4% (+1%)

SNP surge to largest ever YouGov lead.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov/Times Scotland Poll:
SNP - 49% (+4%)
Lab - 25% (-3%)
Con - 18% (+2%)
Lib - 4% (+1%)

SNP surge to largest ever YouGov lead.

Unexpected actually.

I was expecting Labour to close the gap, but obviously not. Are the Conservatives going to beat Labour in Scotland?

[Clyde1998]

The YouGov Scotland poll suggests the SNP are on 61% among 18-24 year olds [9% MoE] and only 9% of the C2DE category thought Murphy won the STV Debate, compared to 63% for Sturgeon.

Is this a short term blip for Labour [in Scottish Westminster voting] - or is it going to be a near-permanent decline for them (like the Conservatives)?

[Clyde1998]

I see the Conservatives are running in 16 of the 18 NI constituencies (with 11 candidates not from NI).

The two constituencies where they are not standing: Fermanagh-South Tyrone and North Belfast.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/10/one-all-male-constituency-24-candidates-are-female-3-unionist-parties-running-all-male-candidates-ge2015/

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

Any bets for how the paper endorsements going to go this time around?

The Conservative alliance with the UUP seems to have fallen apart - so they're standing their own candidates now.

I think Labour are grouped with the SDLP and the Lib Dems with the Alliance party.

[Clyde1998]

Hmm...

https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/586921688790511616

John Smith wouldn't recognise the Scottish Labour Party today.

Anyone else notice: "We will guarantee even more powers for the Scotland."

[Clyde1998]

TNS/BMRB poll of Scotland: SNP 52, Lab 24, Con 13, Lib Dems 6, Greens 3

SNP up six on the last TNS poll, Labour down six compared to their late-Jan; mid-Feb poll. This poll was conducted between mid-March and early-April.

Labour in Scotland are attacking the SNP's flagship Full Fiscal Autonomy - which polls show that around 60% of Scots want and Labour are trying to win back Yes voters. Attacking FFA, the closest thing to independence on offer, is not going to convince supporters of independence. Additionally, lots of Scots wouldn't want Trident renewed or there being further budget cuts - the SNP are opposed to both. The SNP also support a higher minimum wage than Labour.

The SNP lead is massive among people of 'Twitter age' (55% of Twitter users are between 18 and 49)  - the Yes campaign had around 70% of traffic during the referendum, and I think it's one of the main reasons Yes reached 45% (without it, Yes would've been around 35%, IMO). In fact, polling showed Yes won among people of 'Twitter age'. My Twitter, and Facebook, feeds are full of people giving accurate figures that Scottish Labour are twisting - or show them for what they are. One that caught my eye yesterday was 62 Labour MPs employ people on zero-hour contracts.

I think Labour are all but finished in Scottish Westminster elections in the near future.

[Clyde1998]

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

[Clyde1998]

The trouble is, the SNP basically want to turn Scotland into a tax haven - which is obviously kind of irritating for Labourites.

The SNP support raising the £150k tax rate to 50% - same as Labour.

[Clyde1998]

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That's the thing, Labour'll never support independence, that's just not the party that it is.

The problem is, Labour are trying to make traditional class politics play to an electorate where identity politics has definitely become the new flavour of the month. The SNP will get themselves into trouble when a selection of voters, eventually, in a few year, get tired and the party over plays the 'identity' card and it starts to alienate people - as happens in plenty of separatist movements, the world over. The SNP won't want to gain a reputation over the next 10-15 years as 'the party of no'.

If they're members of the SNP - they'll be expelled from the party. That goes against Party rules - assuming it descends into racism.

I hope that it doesn't end up like that - the party has never done this (as far as I can see). I'm glad Salmond didn't blame "money and the English vote" (slightly modified) for the referendum defeat, unlike a certain party that tried to cushion themselves up to the SNP during the campaign...

[Clyde1998]

Scotland is going to be an utter bloodbath.

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That is the one of the worst arguments for or against anything that I've ever heard.

In what way?

A majority of Scottish voters want Full Fiscal Autonomy (according to polling) and the only party proposing it (who have a chance of winning a seat) is the SNP. The SNP generally act in the Scottish national interest - unlike the unionist parties (as they have to worry about winning votes elsewhere in the UK).

[Clyde1998]

Scotland is going to be an utter bloodbath.

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That is the one of the worst arguments for or against anything that I've ever heard.

In what way?

A majority of Scottish voters want Full Fiscal Autonomy (according to polling) and the only party proposing it (who have a chance of winning a seat) is the SNP. The SNP generally act in the Scottish national interest - unlike the unionist parties (as they have to worry about winning votes elsewhere in the UK).

Maybe it becomes clearer why exactly that argument is so bad if you try and phrase it as a syllogism:

P1 In 2010 Scotland mainly voted for Labour
P2 After 2010 the Conservatives formed a government
C Therefore Scotland should not vote for Labour

It's functionally equivalent to saying the people of Perth should vote for Labour this time, because in 2010 they voted for the SNP and got a Tory government.

Added to that, even if the SNP had won 59 seats in 2010, a Conservative government would still have been formed with the SNP completely powerless to stop it.

A lot of people voted Labour in Scotland on the basis of stopping Conservative governments - and didn't vote for other parties because of the fear of this occurring.

The point is referring to the fact that Scotland's votes don't usually decide who the government is - so this is an attempt to stop people from falling into the old trap of voting Labour to stop the Tories. There were/are people who vote Labour in UK elections and SNP in Scottish elections for this reason. It's these people who this is mainly aimed at.

The SNP were ~20% in 2010 and ~45% in 2011.
Labour were ~40% in 2010 and ~25% in 2011.

There's potentially a huge number of people that this would be aimed at.

[Clyde1998]

The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

No, it won't. He was an independent, and, so, the election is continuing as planned.

As glad as I am it'll still go ahead, what f'in bizarre technicality in the law that it doesn't count if you're an indie.

It's because they won't be replaced. If it was a party, they can replace them with a new candidate - which would take a bit of time.

[Clyde1998]

Usual constituency poll warnings:

East Dunbartonshire (Lib Dem poll)
Lib - 34.5% (-4.2% on 2010)
SNP - 32.1% (+21.6%)
Lab - 16.2% (-17.9%)
Con - 13.1% (-2.4%)
Grn - 2.0% (+2.0%)
UKIP - 0.7% (-0.4%)

This is a Lib Dem poll - so it's likely that it's weighted to benefit the Lib Dems. Apparently Ashcroft are polling there right now, which would give an indication on what non-partisan (or as close as we're going to get) polling says. East Dunbartonshire was 39% Yes in the referendum.

[Clyde1998]

Another YouGov Wales poll: Labour 40, Con 23, UKIP 13, Plaid 12, LDem 6, Greens 4

Insert the usual remarks.

If this is to be believed:

Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP are level on the YouGov March poll; Conservatives and Greens down one; Plaid up three.

What does everyone think of the YouGov nowcast - is it actually worth anything, or is it just a bit of fun?

[Clyde1998]

BBC Debate tonight at 8pm - Miliband, Farage, Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett.

Cameron not taking part


Clegg isn't either. My local Lib Dem PPC is claiming that he wasn't invited by the broadcasters...

[Clyde1998]

Ipsos MORI phone poll: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 10 Green 8 Lib Dem 7.  They were ramping this as "definitely worth watching"...

MORI were the first to whore themselves out in their press releases and are still the worst for it. I presume those headline figures are their usual Certains Only ones? What are the Everyone figures?

The Everyone figures are Lab 35 Con 32 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 8 SNP 5.  (The SNP are also on 5 in the Certains Only ones.)  So not much difference this time.

The SNP figure will depend on how Scotland's weighted.

Taking the last YouGov polls for the UK and Scotland - turnout could give the SNP 5% of the total vote - of those certain to vote (10/10):
UK - 69%
Scotland - 81%

[Clyde1998]

Opposition leaders' debate right now. The first question was Ed bashing on all fronts. This is probably how it will continue.

He's getting attacked from the left by Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett and by a xenophobe in Farage.

[Clyde1998]

Survation poll on 'who won?': Miliband 35, Sturgeon 31, Farage 27, Bennett 5, Wood 2

35% is roughly what Labour is polling at.

A few questions that will be answered with the data tables:
Was Miliband preaching to the converted?
How did Conservative/Lib Dem voters split?
How well did Miliband do among Scottish voters?

I think Miliband only did as well as he did in the polls due to moderate Conservative voters and Lib Dem voters siding with him tonight.

[Clyde1998]

Performed the “best”?
Nicola Sturgeon - 35%
Ed Miliband - 29%
Nigel Farage - 26%
Natalie Bennett - 5%
Leanne Wood - 5%
 
Performed the “worst”?
Nigel Farage - 36%
Natalie Bennett - 21%
Ed Miliband - 18%
Leanne Wood - 17%
Nicola Sturgeon - 6%

Survation net performance
Nicola Sturgeon - +29%
Ed Miliband - +11%
Nigel Farage - -10%
Leanne Wood - -12%
Natalie Bennett - -16%

http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=e17762efe2cccb1f0ed943c1f&id=8f6f97df25

[Clyde1998]

Who should be Prime Minister - Miliband or Cameron?

Miliband - 45%
Cameron - 40%

That's terrible news for David Cameron (see what I did there?). But the audience was almost certainly to the left of the population as a whole, so meh.

Is that because the average Briton is to the left though?

[Clyde1998]

Scotland sub-sample data:
Peformed "best"
Sturgeon - 71.6%
Miliband - 16.1%
Wood - 4.5%
Farage - 4.2%
Bennett - 3.5%

Performed "worst"
Farage - 59.4%
Miliband - 17.3%
Wood - 15.5%
Bennett - 6.1%
Sturgeon - 1.8%

Net result:
Sturgeon +69.8%
Miliband -1.2%
Bennett -2.6%
Wood -11.0%
Farage -55.2%

[Clyde1998]

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Post-Debate-Poll-Tables.pdf

Only 55% of those who play to vote Labour thought Miliband performed best. 34% thought Sturgeon did best.

To answer my earlier question:

Conservative voters:
37.5% - Farage
37.4% - Sturgeon
15.7% - Miliband
4.9% - Bennett
4.5% - Wood

Lib Dem voters:
57.4% - Sturgeon
21.9% - Miliband
11.7% - Farage
7.6% - Wood
1.4% - Bennett