Eight maps to understand 2008 electoral college structure

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would like to study more precisely the structure of electoral votes for this election. The following maps are simulations of the Electoral College results of 2008 functions of the popular vote margin. It shows us a lot of things.

- Obama +20%

Obama's biggest weakness : even with a landslide victory, he can't win more than 451 E.V. Republican popular vote appears to be concentrated in some very solid strongholds. Interesting to see that Texas isn't one of them.


- Obama +10%

Even in these situation, McCain does quite good, with Obama carrying only 378 E.V when Clinton won 379 with 1,5% less.


- Obama +5%

Now we see Obama keeping a 338 E.V. majority.


- Obama + 1%

Obama manages to keep Virginia by 0.05% and gets 291 E.V. It's a very good performance, especially considering that Al Gore lost electoral vote with about the same margin.


- McCain +1%

Now we can see McCain's structural failure : even with an 1% popular vote margin,  he would only win 260 votes and so lose the election. Obama so has about 1% of structural advantage : that's enough to reduce McCain possibilities of win.


- McCain +5%

We see a quite strange map for these years : Now Nevada appears to be more democrat than traditionnal democrat strongholds like Minnesota. New Mexico, where John Kerry failed to win in 2004, becomes too a solid democrat state. Anyway, McCain's 311 E.V. is a poor performance.


- McCain : +10%

Now we begin to see McCain doing better than Obama, only failing to carry Northeastern states and obviously Illinois, Hawaii and California, who's becoming a very strong democrat state. McCain manages to get 381 E.V.


- McCain : +20%

You can see what a McCain landslide would look like : carrying 524 E.V., McCain would get a victory comparable with 1972 and 1984 elections. Obama has got only four true strongholds : DC, Hawaii, Vermont and Rhode Island.


We can sum up these result with a table :

Lead	Obama	McCain
20%	451	524
10%	378	381
5%	338	311
1%	291	260

We now can see the famous "blue wall" ( red in this case ) : Democratic vote is more disseminated while Republican is too concentrated : that gives the democrats a very usefull advantage for close election. However, a Republican landslide would be more impressive than a Democrat one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very good post, I perfectly agree with you. These religious right ruined America as nobody did in the past. But now, time for a change is come : rational America, intelligent America, progressive America has taken the power with the best politician since Franklin Roosevelt. Obama can change America, and America wants to change : now we expect truly progressive policies, more freedom and more justice for the future society.
Ok, I know that I am very, very utopian, but history shows us that changes happen : the Roosevelt revolution in 1932, as the Reagan revolution who created so many problems to America.

In fact, I'm more optimistic for the USA than for France or Italy, were two ultraconservatives can govern without opposition and destroy all the past progresses.

YES, WE CAN !!!

[Antonio the Sixth]

which, of course, goes quite against conventional wisdom, which has it that Democrats are concentrated in the big cities and the Black Belt and are out of touch with Teh Real America.

Exactly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mind you, things look much more (though not quite) like the conventional wisdom when looking at county rather than state maps. But counties don't have electoral votes.

Looking into this... I began with New England.

Obama + 20 - he wins every county in the region, obviously.
Obama + 10 - same map as really happened, ie every county but Piscataquis
Obama +5 - McCain wins Piscataquis and Washington (ME), Belknap and Rockinham (NH).
Obama +1 - McCain adds 5 more ME counties, Carroll and Hillsborough (NH), and Litchfield (CT)
McCain +1 - adds Plymouth (MA)
McCain +5 - adds Aroostook (ME)
McCain +10 - adds 3 more ME counties, Merrimack (NH), Essex (VT), Worcester and Barnstable (MA), Kent (RI) and Windham (CT)
McCain +20 - adds 4 more ME counties, Obama winning only Cumberland. Adds 4 more NH counties, Obama winning only Grafton. Adds 4 more VT counties - Orleans, Caledonia, Franklin and Rutland - Obama still winning 9. Adds 4 more MA counties - Hampden, Essex, Norfolk and Bristol - Obama still winning 7. Adds 3 more RI counties, Obama winning only Providence (but the state). Adds 5 more CT counties, Obama winning only Hartford.

Very good job. Unfortunately, New England is not at all representative of the coutry...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's the point:

Bill Clinton was able to win the states in  green in 1992 or 1996. Jimmy Carter was able to win the states in yellow and green in 1976.  Both won running as southern moderate Democrats.  Should Obama convince people in those states colored yellow and green, he wins the electoral college 504-34.

Yes, but the real point is that, contrary to Carter and Clinton, Obama doesn't more need to be saw as a moderate. The democrat's advantage permit them to run as real progressives instead of moderates : now a liberal like Obama can win the election without the help of the South ( excepted Virginia who is influenced by Washington DC suburbs ).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, but the real point is that, contrary to Carter and Clinton, Obama doesn't more need to be saw as a moderate. The democrat's advantage permit them to run as real progressives instead of moderates : now a liberal like Obama can win the election without the help of the South ( excepted Virginia who is influenced by Washington DC suburbs ).

But only if they do as well as Obama - and Gore - in the suburbs. Which depends on continued unpopularity of the Republicans there. Which is not a given.

After Bush policies, who ruined American economy, they will continue to have resentment for at least one decade. Don't forget that the last who did so, Jimmy Carter, permitted a 12-years period of republican government.

[Antonio the Sixth]

IMHO, Crist thinks that if the GOP nominates a staunch conservative in 2012 and he/she gets crushed ala Mondale, then by 2016 the base will come to appreciate his moderate credentials and electability argument.     

Exactly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks, that's a very good job.
If you can, you should make some maps to illustrate your data.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nobody wants to do a county map ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I scribbled down the remainder of this thing, but it seems that I never posted it.

Yes, and that's the reason why I would like a map. If I knew how to do it, I would do it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nobody wants to do a county map ?

What kind of a map? I could.

In reality eight maps, like those I made in the first page of the topic, but showing counties' vote instead of States'.