I do believe she will win. It is just a bit jarring to see some of the posts on here from folks planning their celebration for election night when it is in part still flying around.
Hillary will run up huge margins in CA NY and other blue states. That doesn't help her one bit in FL or OH. Again, do the math.
maths
Florida and Ohio don't get Trump to 270. He needs states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Minnesota, Virginia, or Michigan, and he's currently down at least 6 in all of those. You're right that we shouldn't get complacent, but it's not razor-thin like you're implying.