Cruz will be the nominee. Prove me wrong.

[Mehmentum]

I would say #1 is at about 50-50 at this point.  The race is right at the edge right now, imo.

#3 depends entirely on the 1st ballot.  If Trump can persuade enough unpledged delegates to back him on the 1st ballot, he's got it.  After the first ballot, there's no chance for Trump.  The bottom will fall out as the delegates that were bound to him are released.  This is one of the big reasons why Cruz's delegate games at the state conventions could be so important.

#2 also depends on how good Cruz's ninja delegate skills are.  Once delegates become unbound, how many of the delegates at the convention will be establishmentarians?  How many are Cruz supporters?  How many are Trump supporters?

If Cruz can plant a majority or a strong plurality of the convention with his supporters, then the nomination is his at that point.  If Cruz doesn't have quite enough support, then things become truly unpredictable.  Cruz would have a chance still. A Romney nomination would be unlikely, but maybe Ryan could be the compromise candidate?  Who knows what else could happen.