It's not must win in the sense he'll drop out if he loses. But if he can't win SC then it's hard to see how we wins the nomination. TRUMP is really the only candidate that can afford to lose here, IMO, and still have a realistic chance at the nomination.
So the race will be essentially over after the SC votes are counted, so says Lief. Whatever.
Yes, if we look at historic GOP races, the candidate that first won their second state always won the nomination and 2012 and 1976 were the only primaries where the winner in SC wasn't the eventual nominee. SC is the bellwether of the Republican presidential primaries.