Interesting swings among the majority-Hispanic townships from the 2020 US Presidential election to the 2021 Gubernatorial election (data from "Dead Parrot"'s
spreadsheet right above and the US Election Atlas).
D+5.0 (D+44 in 2020, D+49 in 2021) - (83% Hispanic, Pop. 55K) Perth Amboy, Middlesex County
D+26.2 (D+44 in 2020, D+70 in 2021) - (82% Hispanic, Pop. 69K) Union City, Hudson County
R+4.4 (D+35 in 2020, D+31 in 2021) - (77% Hispanic, Pop. 18K) Dover, Morris County
D+10.4 (D+39 in 2020, D+49 in 2021) - (76% Hispanic, Pop. 53K) West New York, Hudson County
D+12.4 (D+26 in 2020, D+38 in 2021) - (73% Hispanic, Pop. 71K) Passaic, Passaic County
D+10.8 (D+34 in 2020, D+45 in 2021) - (71% Hispanic, Pop. 63K) North Bergen, Hudson County
D+2.6 (D+22 in 2020, D+25 in 2021) - (67% Hispanic, Pop. 15K) Fairview, Bergen County
D+1.2 (D+41 in 2020, D+55 in 2021) - (66% Hispanic, Pop. 137K) Elizabeth, Union County
D+10.7 (D+41 in 2020, D+55 in 2021) - (65% Hispanic, Pop. 12K) Guttenberg, Hudson County
D+9.0 (D+61 in 2020, D+70 in 2021) - (62% Hispanic, Pop. 160K) Paterson, Passaic County
R+7.1 (D+33 in 2020, D+26 in 2021) - (62% Hispanic, Pop. 2.6K) East Newark, Hudson County
R+13.5 (D+53 in 2020, D+40 in 2021) - (60% Hispanic, Pop. 27K) Bridgeton, Cumberland County
R+6.8 (D+48 in 2020, D+41 in 2021) - (59% Hispanic, Pop. 6.4K) Prospect Park, Passaic County
R+4.2 (D+64 in 2020, D+60 in 2021) - (57% Hispanic, Pop. 55K) New Brunswick, Middlesex County
R+1.3 (D+80 in 2020, D+79 in 2021) - (55% Hispanic, Pop. 55K) Plainfield, Union County
D+3.5 (D+79 in 2020, D+83 in 2021) - (53% Hispanic, Pop. 72K) Camden, Camden County
R+19.7 (D+22 in 2020, D+3 in 2021) - (53% Hispanic, Pop. 13K) Freehold, Monmouth County
R+18.8 (D+20 in 2020, D+1 in 2021) - (53% Hispanic, Pop. 12K) Bound Brook, Somerset County
R+10.9 (D+48 in 2020, D+37 in 2021) - (51% Hispanic, Pop. 23K) North Plainfield, Somerset County
NO DATA - (50% Hispanic, Pop. 38K) Belleville, Essex County
R+19.4 (D+70 in 2020, D+50 in 2021) - (50% Hispanic, Pop. 21K) Pleasantville, Atlantic County
Population numbers and Hispanic percentages from 2020 US Census
First thing you'll notice is that the pattern is that the less Hispanic the city is, the more White the city is, and the more it swung to Biden by in the 2020 US Presidential election, the more it swung to Ciattarelli in 2021. You can see this difference between Camden (a 4% White city that swung double digits to Trump), which swung by 4% towards Murphy, and Bridgeton (which, while being a majority-Hispanic city, actually swung towards Biden in 2020, showing its relatively richer and more assimilated status), which swung against Murphy by 14%.
And all these swings occurred while the rest of New Jersey swung some 13% towards the Republican (Trump to Ciattarelli).
You all think this is because Hispanic Trump voters truly are "low-propensity"? Or is this is an example of downballot trends lagging? Or does it show that Trump 2020 was a fluke among Hispanics? Or somewhere in between?
Or does it show nothing at all?
