FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Maxwell]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

Is it just me, or does Murphy's district have a poor bench for Republicans?

[Maxwell]

I'd say CLC and DeSantis keep this in the toss-up/tilt R range, while Rooney would move it to Lean R.

Is Rooney still interested?

[Maxwell]

The FLDems are coalescing around a strong nominee with wide appeal and a proven track record of victory and the RPOF appears set to descend into a pissing match between a bunch of B-list-at-best candidates?

Is this opposite world?

Almost like when the Democrats had an A-list candidate with a track record of victory and the GOP had a pissing match between a bunch of C-list candidates.

[Maxwell]

The FLDems are coalescing around a strong nominee with wide appeal and a proven track record of victory and the RPOF appears set to descend into a pissing match between a bunch of B-list-at-best candidates?

Is this opposite world?

Almost like when the Democrats had an A-list candidate with a track record of victory and the GOP had a pissing match between a bunch of C-list candidates.

Well Bailey imploded spectacularly on the campaign trail (using one of your state's main occupations as an insult tends to not win you any favor) and the national tide turned hard against Democrats in general, two circumstances which (hopefully) will not be repeated here...

I'll dispute that it was just that quote that killed Braley's campaign (he came off as petulant and negative at every appearance and Joni Ernst, for all the crazy talk, had a winning personality and was likable). But my main point is that the look on the outset looks good for the Democrats, but things change. Murphy had a drunk driving arrest, and though I don't think that scandal won't matter much, there are probably other things. Don't get too cocky is all.

Also I don't think the Democrats strategy of putting all of their eggs in one basket is a good one, but that's a conversation for another day.

[Maxwell]

How come none of the True Leftists are attacking Murphy for being a right wing Democrat?

Because True Leftists even realize how unelectable Alan Grayson is, apparently.

[Maxwell]

The FLDems are coalescing around a strong nominee with wide appeal and a proven track record of victory and the RPOF appears set to descend into a pissing match between a bunch of B-list-at-best candidates?

Is this opposite world?

Almost like when the Democrats had an A-list candidate with a track record of victory and the GOP had a pissing match between a bunch of C-list candidates.

Well Bailey imploded spectacularly on the campaign trail (using one of your state's main occupations as an insult tends to not win you any favor) and the national tide turned hard against Democrats in general, two circumstances which (hopefully) will not be repeated here...

I'll dispute that it was just that quote that killed Braley's campaign (he came off as petulant and negative at every appearance and Joni Ernst, for all the crazy talk, had a winning personality and was likable). But my main point is that the look on the outset looks good for the Democrats, but things change. Murphy had a drunk driving arrest, and though I don't think that scandal won't matter much, there are probably other things. Don't get too cocky is all.

Also I don't think the Democrats strategy of putting all of their eggs in one basket is a good one, but that's a conversation for another day.

Braley's biggest mistake was that he didn't follow Harry Reid's strategy to pounce Ernst mercilessly 24/7 for all the crazy things she said. Instead of that he run a rudderless and vacillating campaign allowing his opponent to define herself.

Nah he was plenty aggressive toward Ernst. The problem is being aggressive does not work for a guy who comes off as petulant and dickish doing it.

[Maxwell]

If FL Dems nominate Grayson, the party should probably just disband. Nothing of value would be lost. Nelson can run as an independent.

You'd be permanently conceding 10 house seats...

Even in the absence of a Democrat, FL-05 is not going to send a Republican to Congress.

They'll send a green then. So it's still technically the dem party conceding a seat, even though the green would probably caucus with the Dems.

Yes. That was what he was insinuating.

[Maxwell]

Run Alan Run!

You guys actually want CLC in the senate? Grayson would lose the general by at least 15, no questions asked.

They're Republicans/Republican-leaning.

Nah, I'm just looking for entertainment in these races.

Indeed. I'm frankly tired, as an election observer, of the Democrats coronation process.

[Maxwell]

McCollum is interested? Congrats Murphy

[Maxwell]

what about Ileana Ros-Lehtinen or one of the Diaz-Balarts? are they just house lifers? or would any of them ever seek higher office?

They are lifers and wouldn't make it out of the primary.

[Maxwell]

Are we still pretending like picking a person from a swing state matters?

[Maxwell]

Are you people actually taking Beet's post in this thread seriously?

Beet has expressed unironic support for Schultz many times, so it isn't really that far off that he's being serious.

And that's the concern. The most hated Democrat, period, whom basically got you guys slaughtered in 2010/14, does not deserve any support.

Tim Kaine was the DNC head in 2010.

[Maxwell]

Fun fact: the Republican Senate candidate in Florida has never gotten more than 50% of the vote since 1994.

That's just because silly Charlie Crist decided to run third party. Marco Rubio would've been closing in on 60% otherwise.

[Maxwell]

Beet is someone who takes half a loaf unless the rest of Atlas is willing to take half a loaf, then he just wants to piss on the half a loaf.

[Maxwell]

Murphy is further to the right than any Dem I've ever supported. I'd support someone like Murphy in a red state like Georgia or Mississippi, but Florida can do better.

To me, Murphy doesn't sound like someone with a coherent ideology. He seems like someone who would be puddy in the hands of Democratic Leadership.

[Maxwell]

In an interview with the Tampa Bay Times' political editor Adam Smith discussing his offshore investments, Alan Grayson asked Smith: "are you some kind of shing robot? You go around shing on on people?”

Make this man President.

[Maxwell]

Freedom fighters

Patrick Murphy (FL-18) introduced a bill to the House that would stop seismic wave testing for oil, being co-sponsored by Gwen Graham (FL-2), Corrine Brown (FL-5), Bill Posey (FL-8), Alcee Hastings (FL-20), Lois Frankel (FL-22), and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (FL-24).

Meanwhile Alan Grayson has millions of dollars in offshore accounts. Who's the real progressive?

Still Alan Grayson? It's like saying Hillary Clinton is more progressive than Bernie Sanders because of guns. I'm sure you were joking somewhat but still.

[Maxwell]

Miller's run surprises me.

Same here. Why after all these years?

[Maxwell]

Grayson announcing Thursday. BOOYAH!

I love it. Grayson 5 Senate plz

[Maxwell]

Miller has been out for weeks.

[Maxwell]

Grayson is capitalizing on the Sanders surge, whether or not he actually stands with Sanders 100% of the time, he represents the same anti-establishment energy. I definitely see him winning the primary, in which case, bye bye general to whoever the Republican is.

[Maxwell]

Grayson is really the Democrat Akin. Not because of his ideology, but because he's just a ticking time bomb of dickish things to say, and his general baggage.

[Maxwell]

I wish Connie Mack, IV, ran. He'd wipe up the primary quickly and make sure Grayson didn't stand a chance.

You mean the guy that lost to Bill Nelson by 12 points?

[Maxwell]

Just curious, why does everyone think Murphy is such a great candidate? People here talk as if he's a shoo in in Florida with several competent GOP opponents. I think this race is a toss up no matter what unless the GOP is getting landslides nationally which seems unlikely. Am I missing something? Is Murphy even well known statewide?

Murphy has a strong electoral record, but I somewhat agree with this actually. The fact he's not locking up the primary between him and Grayson is deeply troubling to me.

[Maxwell]

This is why Jolly is an overrated candidate. I would be fine with facing him in November.