538.com map

[Alcon]

The Snapshot includes the regression, but also includes the polling averages, which factor into the regression.  The regression is just another data point, not a prediction of any kind.  Just for clarity's sake

[Likely Voter]

from the FAQ

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seems to me that the snapshot is the most interesting for a map, but its your thread

[KeyKeeper]

Ah Ok, well I will do the snapshot. Thanks for pointing that out to me guys. I will update the map for yesterday in a few. I was very busy yesterday.

[KeyKeeper]

09/17/08

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 265
Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 260
Toss-up: 13


In Sen. McCain's direction

ND: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
NH: Lean Obama to toss-up Obama

In Sen. Obam's direction

CA: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
CO: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain
CT: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
DE: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
HI: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
MA: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
MD: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
NM: Toss-up Obama to Lean Obama
OR: Lean Obama to Likely Obama



538 Snapshot

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 264

[afleitch]

And it now flips back to Obama.

[KeyKeeper]

And it now flips back to Obama.

Yep, I'm getting ready to post today's update. It is quite a different map from yesterday's map.

[Ronnie]

Obama has a 61% chance at winning?  Things look really bad.

[KeyKeeper]

09/18/08

Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 273
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227
Toss-up: 38


In Sen. McCain's direction

None

In Sen. Obam's direction

CO: Toss-up McCain to Lean Obama
FL: Likely McCain to Lean McCain
IL: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
IN: Likely McCain to Lean McCain
ME: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
MN: Lean Obama to Likely Obama
NH: Toss-up Obama to Lean Obama
NM: Lean Obama to Likely Obama
NV: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain
OH: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain
VA: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain
WI: Lean Obama to Likely Obama
WV: Likely McCain to Lean McCain

538 Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 273
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 265

[Jens]

Quite a change in so few days - looks like McCains bounce is over. I wonder whether it will stay close or Obama will take a lead.

[daboese]

I am not quite sure about 538.com right now- the snapshot values seem to be equal to the projection values?!?

[Brittain33]

Quite a change in so few days - looks like McCains bounce is over. I wonder whether it will stay close or Obama will take a lead.

Obama is going to take a lead this week, it's pretty clear. Where we go from here, who knows?

[HardRCafé]

Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 273

Could you please start spelling "Barack" correctly?

[KeyKeeper]

09/19/08

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 273
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227
Toss-up: 38


In Sen. McCain's direction

None

In Sen. Obam's direction

MT: Likely McCain to Lean McCain
ND: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
SD: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
LA: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
MO: Likely McCain to Lean McCain
AZ: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
GA: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
PA: Lean Obama to Likely Obama
OH: Toss-up McCain to Toss-up Obama
VA: Toss-up McCain to Toss-up Obama
NV: Toss-up McCain to Toss-up Obama

538 Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227


[/quote]

[Firefly]

Wow, the 538.com snapshot seems to be turning into my prediction map.  Just need them to switch Indiana.

[Ronnie]

Wow, the 538.com snapshot seems to be turning into my prediction map.  Just need them to switch Indiana.

Let me ask you a question.  How do you think it's possible that Indiana to swing 20 points in 4 years?

Indiana ain't flipping.

[Firefly]

Wow, the 538.com snapshot seems to be turning into my prediction map.  Just need them to switch Indiana.

Let me ask you a question.  How do you think it's possible that Indiana to swing 20 points in 4 years?

Indiana ain't flipping.

It's Obama vs. McCain this year, not Kerry vs. Bush.  Such a large swing in a state from one election to the next is not completely unprecedented.  Look at 1980 vs. 1976 (Florida was a great example), and half of that 1980 lineup was exactly the same as the one in 1976.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, the 538.com snapshot seems to be turning into my prediction map.  Just need them to switch Indiana.

Let me ask you a question.  How do you think it's possible that Indiana to swing 20 points in 4 years?

Indiana ain't flipping.

It's Obama vs. McCain this year, not Kerry vs. Bush.  Such a large swing in a state from one election to the next is not completely unprecedented.  Look at 1980 vs. 1976 (Florida was a great example), and half of that 1980 lineup was exactly the same as the one in 1976.

1928: The Republican party wins their VP nominee Curtis' home state of KS by 45.0 points
1932: The Republican party loses their VP nominee Curtis' home state of KS by 9.4 points

GA had an even bigger swing 1972-1976, but for an obvious reason.

[Firefly]

Wow, the 538.com snapshot seems to be turning into my prediction map.  Just need them to switch Indiana.

Let me ask you a question.  How do you think it's possible that Indiana to swing 20 points in 4 years?

Indiana ain't flipping.

It's Obama vs. McCain this year, not Kerry vs. Bush.  Such a large swing in a state from one election to the next is not completely unprecedented.  Look at 1980 vs. 1976 (Florida was a great example), and half of that 1980 lineup was exactly the same as the one in 1976.

1928: The Republican party wins their VP nominee Curtis' home state of KS by 45.0 points
1932: The Republican party loses their VP nominee Curtis' home state of KS by 9.4 points

GA had an even bigger swing 1972-1976, but for an obvious reason.

Aye, I tried to limit myself to something recent and not involving home state advantage for one of the candidates, but there are many more examples..

[Lief 🗽]

West Virginia:

1996: Democrats take the state by 15 points.
2000: Republicans take the by 6 points.

That's a 21 point swing. It's definitely possible, especially when McCain looks to be completely ignoring the state.

[RJ]

GA had an even bigger swing 1972-1976, but for an obvious reason.

Just about every southern state swung a good 30-35 points on average between 1972 and 1976. It's not out of the realm of possibility for a state 20 points between presidential elections.

I do have to wonder if it will happen this year, however.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, the 538.com snapshot seems to be turning into my prediction map.  Just need them to switch Indiana.

Let me ask you a question.  How do you think it's possible that Indiana to swing 20 points in 4 years?

Indiana ain't flipping.

It's Obama vs. McCain this year, not Kerry vs. Bush.  Such a large swing in a state from one election to the next is not completely unprecedented.  Look at 1980 vs. 1976 (Florida was a great example), and half of that 1980 lineup was exactly the same as the one in 1976.

1928: The Republican party wins their VP nominee Curtis' home state of KS by 45.0 points
1932: The Republican party loses their VP nominee Curtis' home state of KS by 9.4 points

GA had an even bigger swing 1972-1976, but for an obvious reason.

Aye, I tried to limit myself to something recent and not involving home state advantage for one of the candidates, but there are many more examples..

It was still Curtis' home state in 1932, although I suppose he was more of a national figure then.

[Ronnie]

Wow, the 538.com snapshot seems to be turning into my prediction map.  Just need them to switch Indiana.

Let me ask you a question.  How do you think it's possible that Indiana to swing 20 points in 4 years?

Indiana ain't flipping.

It's Obama vs. McCain this year, not Kerry vs. Bush.  Such a large swing in a state from one election to the next is not completely unprecedented.  Look at 1980 vs. 1976 (Florida was a great example), and half of that 1980 lineup was exactly the same as the one in 1976.

You'll see.

[KeyKeeper]

09/20/08

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 293
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 200
Toss-up: 45


In Sen. McCain's direction

None

In Sen. Obam's direction

OH: Toss-up Obama to Lean Obama
VA: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain


538 Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227

[Firefly]

Wow, the 538.com snapshot seems to be turning into my prediction map.  Just need them to switch Indiana.

Let me ask you a question.  How do you think it's possible that Indiana to swing 20 points in 4 years?

Indiana ain't flipping.

It's Obama vs. McCain this year, not Kerry vs. Bush.  Such a large swing in a state from one election to the next is not completely unprecedented.  Look at 1980 vs. 1976 (Florida was a great example), and half of that 1980 lineup was exactly the same as the one in 1976.

You'll see.

Maybe.  *shrugs*  Whether Obama takes the state or not, it'll be way, way closer than 2004.

[KeyKeeper]

09/21/08

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 273
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 200
Toss-up: 65


In Sen. McCain's direction

OH: Lean Obama to Toss-up Obama

In Sen. Obam's direction

AR: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
NC: Likely McCain to Lean McCain


538 Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227