Early Voting thread.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota updated today: https://www.sos.state.mn.us/election-administration-campaigns/data-maps/absentee-data/

Applications submitted (10/6/22): 340,525
Accepted ballots (10/6/22): 49,575

47.5% of those returned are from Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota update, number of ballots cast has doubled:

Applications submitted (10/13/22): 400,975
Accepted ballots (10/13/22): 99,252

Hennepin and Ramsey share is at just over 40% which is a drop from the previous number of about half.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The notion that Democrats are going to vote by mail as much as in 2020 only makes sense if you actually believe that most Democrats are Arthur Chu-like freaks who'll avoid all physical contact for life which is even dumber than assuming that the average Democrat is like a stereotypically woke Twitter poster.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota update:
Applications submitted (10/20/22): 467,902
Accepted ballots (10/20/22): 172,520

37.22% from Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Georgia was 32.3% black as of the last census and probably smaller than that in terms of VAP%. So that means black turnout was higher than the state numbers for two days and only slightly lower the third.... that's not grim at all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why would any normally Democratic black voters vote for Walker? What exactly does Walker have in terms of crossover appeal? Is it his impeccable personal credentials or his very articulate and well argued policy stances?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Has Florida reported any mail-in votes yet?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I ran something to calculate the total percentage of votes cast in each Minnesota county so far as a share of 2020's total numbers ranked highest to lowest. Statewide the percentage is 5.26% (so yes this really isn't that important regardless.) Biden counties are bolded.

Red Lake County 21.35% Marshall County 17.62% Grant County 16.31% Traverse County 14.18% Norman County 13.91% Cass County 13.74% Koochiching County 13.12% Watonwan County 11.63% Aitkin County 11.30% Kittson County 10.85% Lake of the Woods County 10.40% Pope County 10.39% Lac qui Parle County 10.19% Stevens County 10.13% Polk County 10.04% Murray County 9.56% Cook County 9.49% Itasca County 8.43% Blue Earth County 8.31% Le Sueur County 8.31% Nobles County 8.26% Roseau County 7.66% Swift County 7.57% Nicollet County 7.55% Mahnomen County 7.32% Yellow Medicine County 7.12% Hubbard County 7.06% Brown County 7.05% Washington County 6.51% Ramsey County 6.48% Mower County 6.26% Hennepin County 6.16% Wabasha County 6.09% Meeker County 6.02% Carlton County 5.98% Freeborn County 5.87% Crow Wing County 5.79% Pipestone County 5.78% Fillmore County 5.70% Douglas County 5.67% Lake County 5.53% Lyon County 5.39% Sibley County 5.30% Pennington County 5.20% Carver County 5.15% Stearns County 5.09% Dakota County 4.96% Chippewa County 4.91% Clay County 4.70% Rice County 4.35% St. Louis County 4.34% Olmsted County 4.28% Pine County 4.23% Big Stone County 4.22% Goodhue County 4.16% Faribault County 4.13% Becker County 4.05% Anoka County 3.99% Steele County 3.84% Clearwater County 3.78% Morrison County 3.77% Otter Tail County 3.64% Beltrami County 3.53% Scott County 3.51% Benton County 3.50% Kandiyohi County 3.48% Mille Lacs County 3.17% Wright County 3.15% Sherburne County 3.11% Chisago County 3.06% McLeod County 2.82% Redwood County 2.82% Isanti County 2.58% Kanabec County 2.55% Todd County 2.55% Wadena County 2.53% Houston County 2.50% Waseca County 2.47% Cottonwood County 2.18% Rock County 2.08% Dodge County 2.02% Wilkin County 2.00% Winona County 1.95% Renville County 1.95% Jackson County 1.91% Martin County 1.86% Lincoln County 1.77%

As far as why those rural counties rank so high: A lot of rural townships in Minnesota are vote by mail only, and the ballots get sent out automatically to all registered voters in them. The double digit ones all have a bunch of the population in such townships. That's the only real correlation I can draw from these to results to anything.

We'll get new numbers tomorrow and I'll update then.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

New Minnesota update. A big surge and up to 282,277 votes cast, which is 8.6% of 2020's total and 10.9% of 2018's.

Here's an approximation (for various reasons based on different data sources in annoying formatting it would take way too long to get exact numbers including third party votes so this is adjusting all counties to have the statewide percentage, should be accurate within 1%) of the total of 2020 vote cast in each county with Biden counties in bold (btw there were a few tabulation errors in my previous post so disregard it):

Red Lake County 28.93% Marshall County 28.19% Cook County 27.64% Grant County 25.52% Lake of the Woods County 23.13% Mahnomen County 21.81% Aitkin County 21.43% Norman County 20.73% Big Stone County 20.14% Cass County 20.14% Koochiching County 19.78% Traverse County 19.14% Watonwan County 18.43% Stevens County 16.45% Murray County 16.29% Lac qui Parle County 15.74% Itasca County 15.18% Pope County 14.43% Pipestone County 14.02% Polk County 13.49% Swift County 13.03% Nobles County 12.75% Kittson County 12.10% Blue Earth County 12.03% Nicollet County 11.68% Yellow Medicine County 11.59% Le Sueur County 11.58% Wilkin County 11.31% Roseau County 11.11% Chippewa County 10.84% Brown County 10.51% Lyon County 10.46% Hubbard County 10.13% Washington County 10.11% Hennepin County 10.04% Morrison County 9.86% Rock County 9.83% Meeker County 9.75% Sibley County 9.47% Wabasha County 9.23% Ramsey County 9.02% Carlton County 8.85% Crow Wing County 8.63% Mower County 8.63% -------STATEWIDE------- Freeborn County 8.57% Douglas County 8.56% Fillmore County 8.44% Dakota County 8.27% Lake County 8.12% Carver County 8.08% Stearns County 8.02% Pennington County 7.63% Martin County 7.58% Rice County 7.29% Becker County 7.07% Beltrami County 6.87% Olmsted County 6.85% St. Louis County 6.79% Anoka County 6.74% Goodhue County 6.58% Kandiyohi County 6.46% Faribault County 6.42% Clay County 6.32% Pine County 6.08% Clearwater County 5.87% Jackson County 5.82% Otter Tail County 5.77% Scott County 5.65% Wright County 5.64% Steele County 5.61% Benton County 5.31% Mille Lacs County 5.21% Isanti County 4.82% Chisago County 4.71% Sherburne County 4.57% McLeod County 4.50% Redwood County 4.28% Wadena County 4.25% Todd County 4.17% Winona County 4.10% Kanabec County 3.74% Cottonwood County 3.70% Renville County 3.47% Waseca County 3.44% Houston County 3.34% Dodge County 2.93% Lincoln County 2.84%

Total is 52.02% in Biden counties and 47.98% in Trump counties. However for the reason mentioned earlier that many rural areas are VBM only there's a bit more inflated number in Trump counties than you'd expect in most states.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I also ran a probably meaningless but no worse than TargetSmart type data extrapolation of each county's 2020 results toward their share of the current amount, and the 2020 exit polls to get each respective share, and got this total estimate for the ballots cast by Party ID:

Democratic 37%
Republican 32%
Independent 31%

Which translates to in terms of votes:

Democrats 103,639
Republicans 90,969
Independents 87,669

So that means D+12,670 in terms of raw vote lead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I also ran a probably meaningless but no worse than TargetSmart type data extrapolation of each county's 2020 results toward their share of the current amount, and the 2020 exit polls to get each respective share, and got this total estimate for the ballots cast by Party ID:

Democratic 37%
Republican 32%
Independent 31%

Which translates to in terms of votes:

Democrats 103,639
Republicans 90,969
Independents 87,669

So that means D+12,670 in terms of raw vote lead.

Does the early vote typically favor either party in MN?

Tough to say because early voting is so new to Minnesota. We didn't have no excuse absentee voting at all until 2016 and technically we don't even have in person early voting even now. What happens is that in some municipalities and the county courthouse everywhere you can walk in, request an "absentee ballot" and then fill it out on site and "drop it off" just as you can an absentee ballot mailed to you. It's still treated the same as a mailed ballot including being in the same envelopes.

2020 was the first time we had widespread early voting in Minnesota with 66.9% of total votes cast early but that was obviously a special case. In the primary this year it was only 20.4%. At this rate we may not even hit that for the general.

I'd say in 2020 the early votes were very D leaning for obvious reasons but traditionally probably slightly R leaning for the reason of rural mail voting only precincts mentioned before.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will even Mastriano lead on Election Night?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will even Mastriano lead on Election Night?

Yep. He'll probably declare victory then, too.

It will then be funny when he loses by 10 points.

It'll be funny but the insufferable Doomer takes here will not be. We should tempban SnowLabrador, The Trump Virus, MillennialModerate and GoTfan in the interim.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will even Mastriano lead on Election Night?

Yep. He'll probably declare victory then, too.

It will then be funny when he loses by 10 points.

It'll be funny but the insufferable Doomer takes here will not be. We should tempban SnowLabrador, The Trump Virus, MillennialModerate and GoTfan in the interim.

From the guidelines in the first post in both results threads:

As always, personal attacks are not acceptable; nor is trolling, which includes excessive dooming or concern trolling.

Problem is those threads happen so quickly that it's impossible to reign in such types before severe thread derailment. Note how SnowLabrador derailed a few special election threads severely.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota updated today. Now 375,983 votes cast total.

Throwing the county results into the "BRTD Model" shows a likely Party ID of:

D 37%
R 32%
I 31%

Which equals about
D 138,043
R 121,168
I 116,772

Thus equaling D+16,875.

Total cast in comparison to 2020:

Cook County   40.87%
Marshall County   36.18%
Lake of the Woods County   33.95%
Red Lake County   33.76%
Grant County   31.57%
Big Stone County   30.26%
Norman County   30.04%
Aitkin County   28.77%
Traverse County   28.63%
Mahnomen County   28.23%
Koochiching County   25.25%
Cass County   24.00%
Lac qui Parle County   23.14%
Kittson County   22.21%
Stevens County   22.08%
Watonwan County   21.87%
Itasca County   20.02%
Murray County   19.27%
Wilkin County   18.68%
Pope County   18.46%
Polk County   17.95%
Swift County   17.29%
Rock County   16.83%
Roseau County   16.80%
Nobles County   16.31%
Yellow Medicine County   15.93%
Pipestone County   15.81%
Blue Earth County   15.80%
Le Sueur County   15.20%
Nicollet County   14.76%
Lyon County   14.22%
Chippewa County   14.19%
Meeker County   14.10%
Brown County   13.99%
Hubbard County   13.64%
Hennepin County   13.36%
Washington County   13.08%
Sibley County   13.01%
Morrison County   12.87%
Carlton County   12.61%
Mower County   12.46%
Ramsey County   11.67%
-------- STATEWIDE 11.47% --------
Beltrami County   11.44%
Carver County   11.26%
Crow Wing County   11.20%
Douglas County   11.20%
Wabasha County   11.07%
Dakota County   11.00%
Jackson County   10.99%
Fillmore County   10.92%
Stearns County   10.49%
Lake County   10.33%
Becker County   10.14%
Freeborn County   10.13%
Pennington County   9.98%
Olmsted County   9.83%
Clay County   9.61%
Rice County   9.58%
Anoka County   9.00%
Scott County   8.92%
St. Louis County   8.67%
Pine County   8.55%
Faribault County   8.34%
Goodhue County   8.33%
Kandiyohi County   7.81%
Wright County   7.77%
Steele County   7.74%
Otter Tail County   7.63%
Martin County   7.58%
Clearwater County   7.32%
Benton County   7.01%
Mille Lacs County   6.62%
Winona County   6.50%
Isanti County   6.21%
McLeod County   6.16%
Redwood County   5.59%
Kanabec County   5.58%
Chisago County   5.48%
Wadena County   5.44%
Sherburne County   5.30%
Todd County   5.25%
Houston County   5.21%
Waseca County   5.19%
Cottonwood County   5.15%
Renville County   4.82%
Dodge County   4.62%
Lincoln County   4.51%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota updated today. Now 375,983 votes cast total.

New update today, which will probably be the last one before the final numbers on Monday. A two day surge going up to 451,992 votes, although that's not too surprising this close to the election.

I'll plug into the county numbers into my "model" and then update later.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So here's the county numbers as a percentage of 2020:

Marshall County   45.46%
Cook County   44.15%
Lake of the Woods County   40.94%
Grant County   39.32%
Red Lake County   37.64%
Big Stone County   33.99%
Norman County   33.71%
Aitkin County   33.11%
Mahnomen County   32.26%
Kittson County   30.98%
Traverse County   28.63%
Koochiching County   27.52%
Watonwan County   26.63%
Cass County   26.32%
Stevens County   25.66%
Lac qui Parle County   25.06%
Murray County   24.66%
Wilkin County   24.19%
Itasca County   22.84%
Swift County   21.94%
Pipestone County   21.80%
Pope County   20.58%
Rock County   20.48%
Roseau County   20.05%
Nobles County   18.73%
Yellow Medicine County   18.44%
Polk County   18.37%
Blue Earth County   17.89%
Jackson County   17.72%
Chippewa County   17.54%
Brown County   16.94%
Nicollet County   16.89%
Lyon County   16.63%
Le Sueur County   16.37%
Hennepin County   16.06%
Washington County   15.95%
Meeker County   15.71%
Sibley County   15.70%
Hubbard County   15.49%
Ramsey County   14.25%
Carlton County   13.96%
Mower County   13.94%
Dakota County   13.86%
-------- STATEWIDE 13.79% --------
Crow Wing County   13.64%
Carver County   13.38%
Fillmore County   13.16%
Freeborn County   12.94%
Morrison County   12.87%
Stearns County   12.70%
Wabasha County   12.68%
Douglas County   12.49%
Beltrami County   12.16%
Becker County   12.11%
Pennington County   11.80%
Olmsted County   11.73%
Lake County   11.69%
Rice County   11.32%
Anoka County   11.14%
Clay County   10.93%
Martin County   10.56%
Scott County   10.51%
St. Louis County   10.38%
Kandiyohi County   10.23%
Goodhue County   9.62%
Faribault County   9.61%
Wright County   9.54%
Steele County   9.41%
Pine County   9.24%
Otter Tail County   9.24%
Clearwater County   8.46%
Mille Lacs County   8.21%
Winona County   8.13%
Chisago County   8.05%
Isanti County   8.04%
McLeod County   7.85%
Benton County   7.76%
Sherburne County   7.71%
Waseca County   7.42%
Redwood County   6.96%
Kanabec County   6.94%
Wadena County   6.40%
Todd County   5.85%
Houston County   5.83%
Lincoln County   5.82%
Cottonwood County   5.78%
Dodge County   5.71%
Renville County   5.47%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So here's the county numbers as a percentage of 2020:

Marshall County 45.46%
Cook County 44.15%
Lake of the Woods County 40.94%
Grant County 39.32%
Red Lake County 37.64%
Big Stone County 33.99%
Norman County 33.71%
Aitkin County 33.11%
Mahnomen County 32.26%
Kittson County 30.98%
Traverse County 28.63%
Koochiching County 27.52%
Watonwan County 26.63%
Cass County 26.32%
Stevens County 25.66%
Lac qui Parle County 25.06%
Murray County 24.66%
Wilkin County 24.19%
Itasca County 22.84%
Swift County 21.94%
Pipestone County 21.80%
Pope County 20.58%
Rock County 20.48%
Roseau County 20.05%
Nobles County 18.73%
Yellow Medicine County 18.44%
Polk County 18.37%
Blue Earth County 17.89%
Jackson County 17.72%
Chippewa County 17.54%
Brown County 16.94%
Nicollet County 16.89%
Lyon County 16.63%
Le Sueur County 16.37%
Hennepin County 16.06%
Washington County 15.95%
Meeker County 15.71%
Sibley County 15.70%
Hubbard County 15.49%
Ramsey County 14.25%
Carlton County 13.96%
Mower County 13.94%
Dakota County 13.86%
-------- STATEWIDE 13.79% --------
Crow Wing County 13.64%
Carver County 13.38%
Fillmore County 13.16%
Freeborn County 12.94%
Morrison County 12.87%
Stearns County 12.70%
Wabasha County 12.68%
Douglas County 12.49%
Beltrami County 12.16%
Becker County 12.11%
Pennington County 11.80%
Olmsted County 11.73%
Lake County 11.69%
Rice County 11.32%
Anoka County 11.14%
Clay County 10.93%
Martin County 10.56%
Scott County 10.51%
St. Louis County 10.38%
Kandiyohi County 10.23%
Goodhue County 9.62%
Faribault County 9.61%
Wright County 9.54%
Steele County 9.41%
Pine County 9.24%
Otter Tail County 9.24%
Clearwater County 8.46%
Mille Lacs County 8.21%
Winona County 8.13%
Chisago County 8.05%
Isanti County 8.04%
McLeod County 7.85%
Benton County 7.76%
Sherburne County 7.71%
Waseca County 7.42%
Redwood County 6.96%
Kanabec County 6.94%
Wadena County 6.40%
Todd County 5.85%
Houston County 5.83%
Lincoln County 5.82%
Cottonwood County 5.78%
Dodge County 5.71%
Renville County 5.47%

Is this 2020 Early vote or total vote?
If the former off the top my head that looks like a great sign for Dems, if the latter a great sign for Reps.

Total. Comparing to the 2020 early vote is absolutely pointless because of the Covid stuff and push for mail voting then that doesn't exist now.

Also if you think it's great for Reps because of the high conservative counties, as explained before many rural areas especially in the north are vote by mail only. Also those counties are tiny and don't really make much of a difference anyway. I haven't ran the "model" yet but previous county numbers were close to that and the model actually showed a slight D gain over 2020 (weighting by population and how they voted in 2020.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And here's the model's estimate for Party ID:

D 36.31%
R 32.65%
I 31.04%

In raw votes that translates to:

D 164,134
R 147,557
I 140,301

So D+16,577. FWIW that's actually a tiny improvement for the Republicans (a shift of 298 votes in their favor.)

(This model assumes that Democrats, Republicans and independents are all voting early by the same rate in which they voted in 2020 in total, which obviously isn't true outside of those rural VBM only areas, so in reality it's probably a bigger D lead.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the Doomers want to grab onto something, the simulated two-party 2020 vote based on the county numbers so far in Minnesota comes out to Biden 52.96%-Trump 47.04%. The real vote had Biden 53.64%.

But of course that's not taking into account the bias toward rural counties and that in urban and suburban counties Democrats are almost certainly voting more. My guesstimate is that the actual D firewall is about 45k.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And here's the model's estimate for Party ID:

D 36.31%
R 32.65%
I 31.04%

In raw votes that translates to:

D 164,134
R 147,557
I 140,301

So D+16,577. FWIW that's actually a tiny improvement for the Republicans (a shift of 298 votes in their favor.)

(This model assumes that Democrats, Republicans and independents are all voting early by the same rate in which they voted in 2020 in total, which obviously isn't true outside of those rural VBM only areas, so in reality it's probably a bigger D lead.)

TargetSmart modelled estimate (which from what I know is done based on voter's past voting history in primaries and demographics) for MN as of yesterday with total 391K votes is D - 45.7%, R - 25.5%, I - 28.8%
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?state=MN&view_type=state

But how does TargetSmart know the history of all the voters? That's why I don't put much stock in their model. They're pretty opaque about their methodology.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And here's the model's estimate for Party ID:

D 36.31%
R 32.65%
I 31.04%

In raw votes that translates to:

D 164,134
R 147,557
I 140,301

So D+16,577. FWIW that's actually a tiny improvement for the Republicans (a shift of 298 votes in their favor.)

(This model assumes that Democrats, Republicans and independents are all voting early by the same rate in which they voted in 2020 in total, which obviously isn't true outside of those rural VBM only areas, so in reality it's probably a bigger D lead.)

TargetSmart modelled estimate (which from what I know is done based on voter's past voting history in primaries and demographics) for MN as of yesterday with total 391K votes is D - 45.7%, R - 25.5%, I - 28.8%
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?state=MN&view_type=state

But how does TargetSmart know the history of all the voters? That's why I don't put much stock in their model. They're pretty opaque about their methodology.

isn't this voter file data available in all the states ? I thought you can get the past voting history of every voter on whether they voted in a particular primary/general election or not.

But in Minnesota there's no way to tell which primary someone voted in because they're all on the same ballot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota updated today. Now 375,983 votes cast total.

New update today, which will probably be the last one before the final numbers on Monday.

Actually I was wrong. Updated now and up to 518,053. 15.81% of 2020's total turnout.

Grant County   48.91%
Marshall County   48.89%
Cook County   46.77%
Red Lake County   43.15%
Lake of the Woods County   40.94%
Big Stone County   39.92%
Kittson County   38.37%
Traverse County   36.63%
Norman County   35.98%
Aitkin County   34.99%
Mahnomen County   34.34%
Koochiching County   30.11%
Watonwan County   29.20%
Cass County   29.01%
Stevens County   28.44%
Wilkin County   27.89%
Murray County   26.77%
Lac qui Parle County   26.73%
Pipestone County   26.67%
Itasca County   25.92%
Pope County   23.62%
Swift County   23.53%
Rock County   23.18%
Roseau County   22.94%
Polk County   22.15%
Nobles County   21.53%
Yellow Medicine County   20.96%
Chippewa County   20.31%
Blue Earth County   19.96%
Nicollet County   19.32%
Jackson County   19.19%
Sibley County   18.94%
Brown County   18.46%
Hennepin County   18.46%
Washington County   18.26%
Le Sueur County   18.25%
Meeker County   17.90%
Lyon County   17.77%
Carlton County   16.90%
Hubbard County   16.82%
Morrison County   16.58%
Beltrami County   16.44%
Dakota County   16.18%
Ramsey County   16.13%
-------- STATEWIDE 15.81% --------
Carver County   15.69%
Fillmore County   15.18%
Douglas County   15.04%
Stearns County   14.82%
Crow Wing County   14.60%
Freeborn County   14.13%
Mower County   14.09%
Pennington County   14.08%
Becker County   14.07%
Lake County   14.02%
Wabasha County   13.86%
Clay County   13.82%
Olmsted County   13.67%
Scott County   13.13%
Anoka County   12.80%
Martin County   12.60%
Rice County   12.29%
Kandiyohi County   11.60%
St. Louis County   11.27%
Wright County   11.18%
Pine County   11.04%
Steele County   10.82%
Goodhue County   10.42%
Faribault County   10.31%
Otter Tail County   10.27%
Clearwater County   10.09%
Chisago County   9.65%
Isanti County   9.32%
Sherburne County   9.02%
McLeod County   8.98%
Mille Lacs County   8.95%
Winona County   8.71%
Waseca County   8.41%
Redwood County   8.09%
Kanabec County   7.90%
Wadena County   7.76%
Benton County   7.76%
Cottonwood County   6.66%
Lincoln County   6.46%
Dodge County   6.45%
Houston County   6.42%
Todd County   6.34%
Renville County   5.83%

And the model says in terms of partisan breakdown:

D 36.72%
R 32.23%
I 31.06%

D 190,205
R 166,953
I 160,895

D+23,252

Actually a really good batch for Democrats all things considered. And Hennepin and Ramsey counties are up to 36.13% of all votes cast. That's actually higher than 2020's 32.1%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I almost went to Arby's today, but the closest one to me after all the Minneapolis ones closed is right by my Costco, so it's always easier and cheaper to just go to the Costco food court.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mark this post.

I'll eat one of every Arby's menu item if either Sisolak or Cortez-Masto hang on.

I was planning on doing this regardless.

It is kind of a lose-lose, for me. If they lose (likely), I'll be sad for the future of the country. If either wins, I have to eat Arby's.

Also this one later: https://youtu.be/LHL9q7yELxY?t=138