Early Voting thread.

[wbrocks67]

Something to consider: Nevada has universal DMV voter registration now and this has shifted party composition of young voters in some pretty dramatic ways. Namely, majority of "first time" voters are now unaffiliated. Since young voters are most likely to be registered through this system and not bother changing to a party or filling out some form, I think you have to say that unaffiliated this year are a more Dem group than in past years.

Young voters are not turning out much at all so far this year, basically anywhere.

Not really that true; young voter turnout is not bad in most of the swing states. With that being said, a majority of young voters are expected to vote on election day anyway, as they typically have done pre-COVID.

[wbrocks67]

Can someone clarify something for me about the Nevada numbers?:
- I'm reading that in 2018, the Clark "firewall" was 47k
- Right now, the Clark "firewall" is 29k

And the difference here is supposed to spell absolutely doom for the Democrats.

But Rosen won the 2018 Senate race by about 50k votes! It was a huge Dem wave election year.  Why would getting 18k fewer votes this year be either unsurprising or predictive of a Republican victory?

Exactly. And we've got 3 more likely mail updates this weekend to build the firewall up by more. We don't know how Indies will go, but there are likely many young voters in that mix as well, so I wouldn't just assume it's hugely Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

Something to consider: Nevada has universal DMV voter registration now and this has shifted party composition of young voters in some pretty dramatic ways. Namely, majority of "first time" voters are now unaffiliated. Since young voters are most likely to be registered through this system and not bother changing to a party or filling out some form, I think you have to say that unaffiliated this year are a more Dem group than in past years.

Young voters are not turning out much at all so far this year, basically anywhere.

Not really that true; young voter turnout is not bad in most of the swing states. With that being said, a majority of young voters are expected to vote on election day anyway, as they typically have done pre-COVID.

It's not great in most states, nor in the national picture:

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Something to consider: Nevada has universal DMV voter registration now and this has shifted party composition of young voters in some pretty dramatic ways. Namely, majority of "first time" voters are now unaffiliated. Since young voters are most likely to be registered through this system and not bother changing to a party or filling out some form, I think you have to say that unaffiliated this year are a more Dem group than in past years.

Young voters are not turning out much at all so far this year, basically anywhere.

I agree youth turnout will be down but young people don't vote early so I have no idea what kind of "signal" anyone is getting from early voting.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota updated today. Now 375,983 votes cast total.

New update today, which will probably be the last one before the final numbers on Monday.

Actually I was wrong. Updated now and up to 518,053. 15.81% of 2020's total turnout.

Grant County   48.91%
Marshall County   48.89%
Cook County   46.77%
Red Lake County   43.15%
Lake of the Woods County   40.94%
Big Stone County   39.92%
Kittson County   38.37%
Traverse County   36.63%
Norman County   35.98%
Aitkin County   34.99%
Mahnomen County   34.34%
Koochiching County   30.11%
Watonwan County   29.20%
Cass County   29.01%
Stevens County   28.44%
Wilkin County   27.89%
Murray County   26.77%
Lac qui Parle County   26.73%
Pipestone County   26.67%
Itasca County   25.92%
Pope County   23.62%
Swift County   23.53%
Rock County   23.18%
Roseau County   22.94%
Polk County   22.15%
Nobles County   21.53%
Yellow Medicine County   20.96%
Chippewa County   20.31%
Blue Earth County   19.96%
Nicollet County   19.32%
Jackson County   19.19%
Sibley County   18.94%
Brown County   18.46%
Hennepin County   18.46%
Washington County   18.26%
Le Sueur County   18.25%
Meeker County   17.90%
Lyon County   17.77%
Carlton County   16.90%
Hubbard County   16.82%
Morrison County   16.58%
Beltrami County   16.44%
Dakota County   16.18%
Ramsey County   16.13%
-------- STATEWIDE 15.81% --------
Carver County   15.69%
Fillmore County   15.18%
Douglas County   15.04%
Stearns County   14.82%
Crow Wing County   14.60%
Freeborn County   14.13%
Mower County   14.09%
Pennington County   14.08%
Becker County   14.07%
Lake County   14.02%
Wabasha County   13.86%
Clay County   13.82%
Olmsted County   13.67%
Scott County   13.13%
Anoka County   12.80%
Martin County   12.60%
Rice County   12.29%
Kandiyohi County   11.60%
St. Louis County   11.27%
Wright County   11.18%
Pine County   11.04%
Steele County   10.82%
Goodhue County   10.42%
Faribault County   10.31%
Otter Tail County   10.27%
Clearwater County   10.09%
Chisago County   9.65%
Isanti County   9.32%
Sherburne County   9.02%
McLeod County   8.98%
Mille Lacs County   8.95%
Winona County   8.71%
Waseca County   8.41%
Redwood County   8.09%
Kanabec County   7.90%
Wadena County   7.76%
Benton County   7.76%
Cottonwood County   6.66%
Lincoln County   6.46%
Dodge County   6.45%
Houston County   6.42%
Todd County   6.34%
Renville County   5.83%

And the model says in terms of partisan breakdown:

D 36.72%
R 32.23%
I 31.06%

D 190,205
R 166,953
I 160,895

D+23,252

Actually a really good batch for Democrats all things considered. And Hennepin and Ramsey counties are up to 36.13% of all votes cast. That's actually higher than 2020's 32.1%.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Something to consider: Nevada has universal DMV voter registration now and this has shifted party composition of young voters in some pretty dramatic ways. Namely, majority of "first time" voters are now unaffiliated. Since young voters are most likely to be registered through this system and not bother changing to a party or filling out some form, I think you have to say that unaffiliated this year are a more Dem group than in past years.

Young voters are not turning out much at all so far this year, basically anywhere.

I agree youth turnout will be down but young people don't vote early so I have no idea what kind of "signal" anyone is getting from early voting.

Many young people won't take the initiative to actually request and fill out a mail-in ballot, but plenty of the low-turnout ones (aka those who are not USERS on Atlas Secular Blog) could very well turn up in person.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1589111493706276864

That's what the doctor ordered.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1589111493706276864

That's what the doctor ordered.

Omg wow so when the mail vote actually updates it reverses any early votes gains made by republicans wow no way

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1589111493706276864

That's what the doctor ordered.

IIrc, do Ds lead by 5,000 until now, and that's increased to 13,000 just because of this drop? Because, wow.

[Sbane]

Can someone clarify something for me about the Nevada numbers?:
- I'm reading that in 2018, the Clark "firewall" was 47k
- Right now, the Clark "firewall" is 29k

And the difference here is supposed to spell absolutely doom for the Democrats.

But Rosen won the 2018 Senate race by about 50k votes! It was a huge Dem wave election year.  Why would getting 18k fewer votes this year be either unsurprising or predictive of a Republican victory?

It tends to indicate a neutral environment in my opinion. Perhaps weak results for the Dems among independents flips the state but its not some slam dunk for the Republicans either.

[Adam Griffin]

i
already
told
you

guys
the
votes
are
in
the
mail

[Adam Griffin]

Saturday Georgia ABM Update: 4,038 votes were accepted today, for a total of 219,615 valid returned ABMs (out of 271,292 currently valid ABM ballots; 80.95% return rate) & 2,509,117 total votes.

I probably won't bother with the typical breakdowns until the Monday update, as the sheer number processed today and/or possibly tomorrow are too few for tea leaf-reading.

[Minnesota Mike]

Does Nevada have drop boxes? If not with no mail on Sunday tomorrow will probably be a slow day.

[Sbane]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1589033141712613376?s=20&t=qcQ-vS8Qy5...

Polling places are less busy now that mail is common, however. Probably has some effects on the margins though, but not as much as it would in 2012 or something.

I wouldn't think some rain in SoCal or in Vegas should affect things too much. Reno bears watching though. The forecast is for 1-3 inches of snow there on election day. If the storm is stronger than expected, that could impact the results.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1589111999958351872

[kwabbit]

Great mail drop for the Dems. If it wasn't clear by now, CCM is not going to be doomed going to E-Day. It keeps on seeming like she's toast until the mail comes in and keeps her competitive. In reality, she's probably been the same modest underdog over the entire period.

Laxalt is going to win, if he does, through a GOP-heavy turnout on election day and beating CCM among NPPs. Winning the EV (R > D) was never going to happen unless he wins by 7pts or something that extreme.

[MikeIrvine]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1589111493706276864
That's what the doctor ordered.

IIrc, do Ds lead by 5,000 until now, and that's increased to 13,000 just because of this drop? Because, wow.

Worth noting this drop alone puts the Clark firewall at around 37k. I was expecting 37k final before Tuesday but we got there in one day. I'm assuming no or slow mail Sunday. If Monday is good...that could be mid 40s, and that's with mail on election day plus the few days after

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1589111493706276864
That's what the doctor ordered.

IIrc, do Ds lead by 5,000 until now, and that's increased to 13,000 just because of this drop? Because, wow.

Worth noting this drop alone puts the Clark firewall at around 37k. I was expecting 37k final before Tuesday but we got there in one day. I'm assuming no or slow mail Sunday. If Monday is good...that could be mid 40s, and that's with mail on election day plus the few days after

Looks like the laws that NV Ds passed re: voting have done their job in boosting turnout. Now we shall see which party benefits...

[pantsaregood]

Mark this post.

I'll eat one of every Arby's menu item if either Sisolak or Cortez-Masto hang on.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Mark this post.

I'll eat one of every Arby's menu item if either Sisolak or Cortez-Masto hang on.

I was planning on doing this regardless.

[Minnesota Mike]

Mark this post.

I'll eat one of every Arby's menu item if either Sisolak or Cortez-Masto hang on.

You say that like it's a bad thing. I could go for an Arby's roast beef and curly fries right now.

[pantsaregood]

Mark this post.

I'll eat one of every Arby's menu item if either Sisolak or Cortez-Masto hang on.

I was planning on doing this regardless.

It is kind of a lose-lose, for me. If they lose (likely), I'll be sad for the future of the country. If either wins, I have to eat Arby's.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I almost went to Arby's today, but the closest one to me after all the Minneapolis ones closed is right by my Costco, so it's always easier and cheaper to just go to the Costco food court.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mark this post.

I'll eat one of every Arby's menu item if either Sisolak or Cortez-Masto hang on.

I was planning on doing this regardless.

It is kind of a lose-lose, for me. If they lose (likely), I'll be sad for the future of the country. If either wins, I have to eat Arby's.

Also this one later: https://youtu.be/LHL9q7yELxY?t=138

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Time for Ralston to reassess tomorrow, and then change his mind between SnowLabrador and wbrocks five more times before election day.