CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[E-Dawg]

I don't believe in fraud theories, but the extremely slow vote counting makes me doubt the integrity of this election.

The vote counting hasnt been any worse compared to California and New York in the 2020 elections, do you doubt the integrity of those elections as well?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't believe in fraud theories, but the extremely slow vote counting makes me doubt the integrity of this election.

Let me guess. This is your first California election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't believe in fraud theories, but the extremely slow vote counting makes me doubt the integrity of this election.

Then you're just pathetically looking for any excuse possible to believe them. You're like the anti-vaxxers who are "doing their own research."

If I went by your logic, Florida counts too quickly and therefore something must be up! It's not like Republicans win here all the time!

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't believe in fraud theories, but the extremely slow vote counting makes me doubt the integrity of this election.

"I don't believe in fraud theories but [inserts basis for 99% of the dumb fraud theories circulating]"

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/GuyMarzorati/status/1442568459154386945?s=20

[Ferguson97]

I don't believe in fraud theories, but the extremely slow vote counting makes me doubt the integrity of this election.

You are not just a clown, you are the whole circus.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/GuyMarzorati/status/1442568459154386945?s=20

CAGOP:

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1442758504725434370?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/GuyMarzorati/status/1442568459154386945?s=20

Has anyone checked in on Matty?

[Matty]

Imperial county has finished all counting .

Yes to recall crossed 40%

The county is 90%+ hispanic, so it's a good proxy on latino vote state-wide.

[Oryxslayer]

Imperial county has finished all counting .

Yes to recall crossed 40%

The county is 90%+ hispanic, so it's a good proxy on latino vote state-wide.

It also had 34.5% turnout compared to the 57.2% state presently overall and 65%+ in whiter areas both D and R. This turnout was 14% worse than 2018, despite the state slightly undershooting 2018. So yes, a very good proxy of Latino mood - though I could have told you a year ago that Southwest Latino turnout plummets in non-presidential and even harder when its not November.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1443075149314547712

[DrScholl]

And Bush got 46% in Imperial County, yet no one seems to want to acknowledge that Republicans are nowhere near close to where they used to be in that county. With that said a vote for the recall isn't necessarily a vote for the GOP in other races.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Riverside County just finished their count

Turnout - 55.7%  (2018 - 62.8%)

Yes - 362,958    50.5%   (50.2% Cox in 2018)
No - 355,630    49.5%   (49.8 Newsom in 2018)


On a related note, my growing frustration with the Registrar of Voters continues as I was all ready to break down the local results, but the County for whatever reason didn't upload their SOV with the final summary results.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1443075149314547712

Isn't Hispanic/Latino turnout absolutely terrible in CA in off year elections?

[Non Swing Voter]

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Almost like the newest iteration of "Dems in disarray" isn't panning out. 

Don't worry though, Virginia race is coming up soon and there could be rain in the forecast for Fairfax.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1443075149314547712

he's starting to become more insufferable than Cilizza.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The margin right now is identical to the 2018 one.

200k ballots left to count. Here's hoping they don't bring the margin down further.

[Woody]

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Almost like the newest iteration of "Dems in disarray" isn't panning out.  

Don't worry though, Virginia race is coming up soon and there could be rain in the forecast for Fairfax.

Looks like it is guaranteed that he is on track to underperform his 18' margins with the remaining ballots coming in.

Absolutely pathetic that he did worse than 2018 with so high turnout, more money and national attention to this race compared to last time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Almost like the newest iteration of "Dems in disarray" isn't panning out.  

Don't worry though, Virginia race is coming up soon and there could be rain in the forecast for Fairfax.

Looks like it is guaranteed that he is on track to underperform his 18' margins with the remaining ballots coming in.

Absolutely pathetic that he did worse than 2018 with so high turnout, more money and national attention to this race compared to last time.

We didn't have any House or Senate candidates on the ballot during recall and LA Mayor race is coming up next yr, Alex Padilla, Latino is gonna help Newsom and D's next Nov, 2022

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

On a related note, my growing frustration with the Registrar of Voters continues as I was all ready to break down the local results, but the County for whatever reason didn't upload their SOV with the final summary results.

The County must've heard my cries cause they uploaded the SOV!

Interestingly, No won the overall city vote 51 - 49, but the unincorporated area supported recall around 57 - 43. Just enough for the county as a whole to flip to Yes.

Cities largely voted as they did in 2018 & 2020. Banning, Corona, Hemet, La Quinta & Lake Elsinore were all Biden/Cox cities that supported recall. The only Biden/Cox city to vote against the recall was Palm Desert.



                                  Yes% - No%    N-Y margin%  
Palm Springs               20.1  -  79.9               +59.7
Coachella                    20.5   -  79.5               +59.0
Cathedral City             28.0   -  72.0               +44.0
Perris                          31.6   -  68.4               +36.9
Moreno Valley             35.6   -  64.4               +28.7
Desert Hot Springs      38.0  -  62.0               +24.1
Rancho Mirage            39.7   -  60.3               +20.7
Indio                           41.9   -  58.1               +16.2
Riverside                     45.6   -  54.4                 +8.8
Palm Desert                46.5   -  53.5                 +7.0
Jurupa Valley              47.4   -  52.6                 +5.1
San Jacinto                 48.8   -  51.2                 +2.3
Eastvale                      49.9   -  50.1                 +0.2
RIVERSIDE COUNTY    50.5  -  49.5                  -1.0
La Quinta                    51.4   -  48.6                  -2.9
Banning                      51.8   -  48.2                  -3.7
Hemet                         52.4   -  47.6                  -4.9
Corona                        52.6   -  47.4                  -5.2
Beaumont                   54.3   -  45.7                  -8.7
Lake Elsinore              54.7   -  45.3                  -9.4
Unincorporated Area  57.1   -  42.9                -14.2
Temecula                    59.1   -  40.9                -18.2
Menifee                       59.4   -  40.6                -18.8
Blythe                         59.8   -  40.2                -19.6
Indian Wells               59.9   -  40.1                -19.8
Murrieta                      62.1   -  37.9                -24.1
Wildomar                    65.6   -  34.4                -31.2
Calimesa                     67.2   -  32.8                -34.4
Norco                          74.0   -  26.0                -47.9
Canyon Lake               79.5   -  20.5                -58.9

CD-36                          45.1   - 54.9                 +9.9
CD-41                          42.5   - 57.5               +15.0
CD-42                          59.0   - 41.0                -18.0



2021 N-Y - 2018 D-R SWING
Indian Wells                D+16.1
Rancho Mirage             D+14.1
Palm Desert                   D+8.7
Palm Springs                 D+7.4
La Quinta                       D+7.1
Hemet                            D+6.5
Menifee                          D+4.7
Banning                         D+4.6
Cathedral City                D+4.2
Beaumont                      D+2.2
Temecula                       D+1.6
Calimesa                        D+1.5
Murrieta                         D+1.5
Unincorporated Area     D+1.0
Indio                              D+0.4
RIVERSIDE COUNTY      R+0.7
Moreno Valley                R+1.4
Corona                           R+1.6
Lake Elsinore                 R+1.8
Wildomar                       R+2.0
Desert Hot Springs        R+2.9
Riverside                       R+3.5
San Jacinto                   R+4.1
Norco                            R+5.2
Canyon Lake                 R+5.8
Eastvale                        R+7.1
Perris                            R+8.3
Jurupa Valley                R+8.3
Coachella                      R+9.5
Blythe                         R+13.7


CD-36                          D+3.5
CD-41                          R+3.8
CD-42                          R+0.4


2021 - 2018 TURNOUT (+ Percentage of 18+ year old Hispanics & 18+ year old Non-Hispanic Whites)
                                2021% - 2018%     DIFFERENCE%      HISPANIC%   WHITE%

Indian Wells                77.9  -      83.4                       -5.4                     5.4           89.1
Rancho Mirage             76.8  -     80.7                        -3.9                   11.2           79.5
Canyon Lake                72.4  -     72.0                       +0.5                   12.9           77.7
Palm Springs               71.1  -     76.3                        -5.3                   20.9           66.9
Calimesa                      67.9  -     71.0                        -3.1                   25.3           65.1
Palm Desert                 67.2  -     74.4                        -7.2                   22.0           68.2
Norco                           66.4  -     70.5                        -4.1                   33.4           51.7
La Quinta                     66.1  -     72.4                        -6.3                   29.4           61.5
Temecula                     62.9  -     68.4                        -5.5                   25.1           52.2
Murrieta                       61.9  -     66.6                        -4.8                   27.6           49.6
Menifee                        60.6  -     66.7                        -6.1                   34.0           47.6
Beaumont                    60.3  -     66.6                        -6.3                   40.4           42.7
Banning                       59.3  -     66.5                        -7.2                   40.4           42.7
Wildomar                     58.1   -    63.4                        -5.3                   37.3           47.0
Corona                         57.0   -    64.0                        -7.0                   43.3           34.3
Eastvale                       56.7   -    62.5                        -5.8                   35.4           20.5
Cathedral City              56.1   -    62.1                        -6.1                   54.4          33.9
RIVERSIDE COUNTY    55.7  -     62.5                       -6.8                    45.6          44.1
Unincorporated Area   55.2   -    64.5                        -9.3
Indio                            53.6   -    61.4                        -7.8                   64.3          28.6
Riverside                     53.3   -    60.6                         -7.3                   50.6          30.9
Lake Elsinore               52.4   -    59.6                        -7.2                    47.4          33.2
Hemet                          51.9   -    59.7                        -7.8                    40.4          42.4
Jurupa Valley               46.7   -    56.8                      -10.0                    66.9          21.1
Blythe                          46.1   -    58.9                      -12.8                    38.6           39.4
San Jacinto                  44.5   -    53.1                        -8.6                    57.4           26.1
Moreno Valley              43.6   -    51.4                       -7.9                     58.2           15.4
Desert Hot Springs      42.6  -     51.1                       -8.5                      56.0           30.0
Perris                          37.0   -    46.0                        -9.0                      73.7             9.2
Coachella                    34.1   -    43.8                        -9.7                      96.2             2.1

[Antonio the Sixth]

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Almost like the newest iteration of "Dems in disarray" isn't panning out.  

Don't worry though, Virginia race is coming up soon and there could be rain in the forecast for Fairfax.

Looks like it is guaranteed that he is on track to underperform his 18' margins with the remaining ballots coming in.

Absolutely pathetic that he did worse than 2018 with so high turnout, more money and national attention to this race compared to last time.

C O P E
O O
P     P
E         E

[Skill and Chance]

Where did the new votes come from?

[Fubart Solman]

Where did the new votes come from?

Stacey Abrams’s patented ballot printer