WA-NPI/PPP: Warren @ 60% vs. Trump in Washington

[Tender Branson]

60% Warren
37% Trump

59% Biden
37% Trump

58% Sanders
37% Trump

Washington State has not supported the Republican nominee for President in decades. The state backed Ronald Reagan’s candidacy 1980 and 1984; since then, voters in Washington have consistently supported the Democratic nominee (Michael Dukakis, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton).

This is the second set of findings we have released from our recent survey of nine hundred likely 2019 Washington State voters, which was in the field from Tuesday, October 22nd through Wednesday, October 23rd. We previously released findings showing Washingtonians disapprove of Donald Trump and want him impeached.

The poll utilizes a blended methodology inclusive of cellphone only voters, with 53% of respondents participating via landline and 43% participating via text.

The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level.

https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2019/10/elizabeth-warren-is-donald-trumps-strongest-challenger-in-evergreen-state-npi-poll-finds.html

[Skye]

Basically a D internal, but anyway, it's not like we don't know how this state is going to turn out.

[Pollster]

This poll suggests Herrera Beutler's and McMorris Rodgers' districts are likely still slightly out of reach as these margins are all fairly similar to the statewide House vote in 2018, when accounting for two D districts that were uncontested.

[Xing]

It won't be quite that lopsided, but yeah, Trump will get curbstomped in Washington, and there are no signs that Washington or Oregon are going to trend Republican (Washington has trended Democratic.)

[RI]

Trump matching his 2016 number in a D poll is not bad for him.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump matching his 2016 number in a D poll is not bad for him.

His opponent bettering Hillary by 6 to 8 points is, however.

[RI]

Trump matching his 2016 number in a D poll is not bad for him.

His opponent bettering Hillary by 6 to 8 points is, however.

A. It's a D poll
B. That WA third party voters from 2016 would break D would not be in the least surprising. I suspect this overstates the degree to which that will occur.

[Gustaf]

Trump matching his 2016 number in a D poll is not bad for him.

His opponent bettering Hillary by 6 to 8 points is, however.

A. It's a D poll
B. That WA third party voters from 2016 would break D would not be in the least surprising. I suspect this overstates the degree to which that will occur.

I'm not sure the argument "this poll is good news for Trump because I don't believe it to be true" makes much sense.

[Sbane]

Trump matching his 2016 number in a D poll is not bad for him.

His opponent bettering Hillary by 6 to 8 points is, however.

A. It's a D poll
B. That WA third party voters from 2016 would break D would not be in the least surprising. I suspect this overstates the degree to which that will occur.

Trump will have a hard time winning if he only matches his numbers from 2016. He squeezed by in 2016 due to third party votes. If the Democrat can get up from 48% to even 50%, they win.