Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Forgive my ignorance I haven't paid much attention to the gubernatorial race, but how does Edwards views line up with the national Dem party? Is he close to being a conservadem or is he quite liberal or in between?

[smoltchanov]

Forgive my ignorance I haven't paid much attention to the gubernatorial race, but how does Edwards views line up with the national Dem party? Is he close to being a conservadem or is he quite liberal or in between?

IMHO, typical southern populist. Rather liberal (cautiously) on economy, but much more conservative on social issues (including being 100% pro-life as very many Louisiana Democrats are). Good mix for his state, as no "flaming progressive" will win in the next 30 years statewide there...

[kansasdemocrat]

Forgive my ignorance I haven't paid much attention to the gubernatorial race, but how does Edwards views line up with the national Dem party? Is he close to being a conservadem or is he quite liberal or in between?

IMHO, typical southern populist. Rather liberal (cautiously) on economy, but much more conservative on social issues (including being 100% pro-life as very many Louisiana Democrats are). Good mix for his state, as no "flaming progressive" will win in the next 30 years statewide there...

Someone is very confident in his analysis...

[smoltchanov]

Forgive my ignorance I haven't paid much attention to the gubernatorial race, but how does Edwards views line up with the national Dem party? Is he close to being a conservadem or is he quite liberal or in between?

IMHO, typical southern populist. Rather liberal (cautiously) on economy, but much more conservative on social issues (including being 100% pro-life as very many Louisiana Democrats are). Good mix for his state, as no "flaming progressive" will win in the next 30 years statewide there...

Someone is very confident in his analysis...

Absolutely. And i don't need any troll comments..

[kansasdemocrat]

Forgive my ignorance I haven't paid much attention to the gubernatorial race, but how does Edwards views line up with the national Dem party? Is he close to being a conservadem or is he quite liberal or in between?

IMHO, typical southern populist. Rather liberal (cautiously) on economy, but much more conservative on social issues (including being 100% pro-life as very many Louisiana Democrats are). Good mix for his state, as no "flaming progressive" will win in the next 30 years statewide there...

Someone is very confident in his analysis...

Absolutely. And i don't need any troll comments..

No troll comments here. Chill bro. You seem a bit prickly...must be a Russian thing...

[Miles]

No troll comments here. Chill bro. You seem a bit prickly...must be a Russian thing...

If we're gonna post here, please talk about the election, not other posters

[Miles]

About 213K early votes have been cast with today being the last day. Its looking like the early votes totals tomorrow will be greater than either the 2014 Senate primary or runoff.

[DrScholl]

Forgive my ignorance I haven't paid much attention to the gubernatorial race, but how does Edwards views line up with the national Dem party? Is he close to being a conservadem or is he quite liberal or in between?

IMHO, typical southern populist. Rather liberal (cautiously) on economy, but much more conservative on social issues (including being 100% pro-life as very many Louisiana Democrats are). Good mix for his state, as no "flaming progressive" will win in the next 30 years statewide there...

Someone is very confident in his analysis...

Absolutely. And i don't need any troll comments..

No troll comments here. Chill bro. You seem a bit prickly...must be a Russian thing...

I think he got banned from Swing State Project for his excessive arguing over moderates.

[smoltchanov]

Forgive my ignorance I haven't paid much attention to the gubernatorial race, but how does Edwards views line up with the national Dem party? Is he close to being a conservadem or is he quite liberal or in between?

IMHO, typical southern populist. Rather liberal (cautiously) on economy, but much more conservative on social issues (including being 100% pro-life as very many Louisiana Democrats are). Good mix for his state, as no "flaming progressive" will win in the next 30 years statewide there...

Someone is very confident in his analysis...

Absolutely. And i don't need any troll comments..

No troll comments here. Chill bro. You seem a bit prickly...must be a Russian thing...

I think he got banned from Swing State Project for his excessive arguing over moderates.

Exactly. And from Red Racing Horses - too. Despite them personally offering me to join and perfectly knowing which type of candidates i prefer (in suitable districts, of course). Both Democrats and Republicans are absolutely intolerant about opinions, which may differ from their own, on their sites, despite bragging otherwise....

P.S. I even mention that in my signature...)))

[Miles]

Ya'll may remember Rep. Lenar Whitney - she ran for Congress last year in LA-06. Wasserman called her the scariest candidate he'd ever seen (probably dumbest too, IMO).

In any case, she's in a runoff with another R for her seat down in Terrebonne parish. This spot being run against her is outright painful.

[DINGO Joe]

Voted early today, even though I prefer voting on election day, but the wife has to leave town at the last minute and is an erratic voter(didn't vote in the primary), so I toted her to the polls.  Drove to the Algiers Courthouse even though I live on the eastbank because I thought it would be easier than downtown and it probably was.  Saw my first Vitter sign in the city, in an empty overgrown field.  Don't know why campaigns think that can be beneficial.  

As for overall early voting, the basic trends continue.  A-A vote is 28.3% vs 26.7% in primary.  Cities and suburbs up, most rural parishes down.  Plaquemines is probably the biggest laggard which is odd because it's Nungessers home.  Tiny, poor, black East Carroll has had a hefty dropoff in black turnout for early voting, but the early vote in the primary was oddly favorable for the Rs in the primary especially compared to those who voted on election day.  Maybe there's a story behind it and we're only talking about a few hundred votes, but it is odd.

Vitter won a plurality of the early vote in Jefferson in the primary, but the early vote doesn't look favorable for him this time.   Really, Vitter ticked off the wrong person.

[Miles]

Tiny, poor, black East Carroll has had a hefty dropoff in black turnout for early voting, but the early vote in the primary was oddly favorable for the Rs in the primary especially compared to those who voted on election day.  Maybe there's a story behind it and we're only talking about a few hundred votes, but it is odd.

Dardenne, who had to focus on tourism as LG, did quite a few events at Poverty Point. He was the Republican that did best in East Carroll parish, perhaps in part because he promoted the area. Maybe since he's off the ticket, the Republican share of the vote will decrease and revert to what it normally should be.  

[Badger]

Miles, this is a bit past due, but what type of Republicans backed Vitter in the primary and why? He absolutely swamped Meirtire (sp?). It's not like the other two (with possible exception of Dardanne) could be reasonably considered DINOs even by LA standards. Whassup?

[Miles]

^ Generally, Vitter's support was strongest in the two extremes of the state - the southeast and northwest.

Metairie is where Vitter is from and it has been an electoral linchpin for him most of his career. When he first ran for Congress, his margin there put him over the top in a razor-close runoff. Without Jefferson Parish, the overall gap between Vitter and Angelle would have been cut in half.

Still, I think Vitter's showing in Metairie was somewhat weak. As a whole, Metairie was about 75% R in the last Presidential election. Vitter only got 47% there in the primary, meaning that almost 40% of the Republicans that knew him bets voted against him.

Dardenne actually finished ahead of Angelle in Metairie - not too surprising considering the area is generally higher-income. I'm really interested to see what Dardenne's voters there will do.

Outside of the areas he represented for all 15 years he's been in either House of Congress, his best area was in the northwest, around Shreveport. My initial theory here is that Cajun candidates (Angelle) have underperformed there as of late. For example, in 2010 (one of the only years LA was on a normal primary system for federal elections) Charlie Melancon did relatively poor up north in the Democratic primary. As for the Dardenne, there aren't as many Republicans in his faction up there. Thus, in that area, Vitter became the generic R because of his name recognition.

My theory there crumbles a bit when you consider that if you move to the northeast, closer to Monroe, Angelle (and even Dardenne) was ahead of Vitter in many parishes.

Another explanation may be that John Fleming has always been a Vitter ally, so was able to mobilize local Republicans there for him. Fleming's interest in Vitter's Senate seat was also a big incentive. Down in LA-03, Boustany is also interested in the seat, but wasn't in a position to deliver many votes, given Angelle's favorite son status in that district.

I actually don't think I've posted this yet, but here's a map only considering the Republican votes:

[Miles]

Vitter is reportedly making robocalls about Paris.

I haven't heard the audio itself, but politicizing Paris seems quite low, even by his standards.

[Skye]

Vitter is reportedly making robocalls about Paris.

I haven't heard the audio itself, but politicizing Paris seems quite low, even by his standards.

Everyone will politicize Paris, be ready.

[Miles]

^ Well, he's based much of his campaign on fearmongering, so I guess I'm not that surprised.

[The Other Castro]

Vitter gets a major endorsement: his son Jack.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRi4oBJvjHs&feature=youtu.be

[The Other Castro]

Vitter is reportedly making robocalls about Paris.

I haven't heard the audio itself, but politicizing Paris seems quite low, even by his standards.

Not great quality, but here's a recording of the robocall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaZbfTRCGdw

[Miles]

^ We're really scraping the bottom of the barrel here. He's made his wife, and now son, cut ads from him as he tries to morally exculpate himself.

I suppose the robocall was about what it expected from him.

[kansasdemocrat]

Vitter gets a major endorsement: his son Jack.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRi4oBJvjHs&feature=youtu.be

Low-energy ad from low-energy offspring!

[IceSpear]

Miles, if Edwards really was up 20+ points, why would he run the "prostitutes over patriots" ad? Don't get me wrong, I think it's amazing, but I'm a liberal godless Democrat, and Edwards is trying to appeal to moderates and conservatives in a heavily red state that have given Vitter a pass in 2010 for this already. It seems like the kind of ad a candidate in desperation mode runs (like Godless, Aqua Buddha, etc.)

Is it just based on his personal disgust for Vitter rather than politics? You'd think if he was really crushing he'd want to play it safe and not risk a backlash/sympathy for Vitter.

[Miles]

^ From what I'm getting from my friends working on the campaign, think it was more a reaction to the Kentucky result than anything else. The Edwards team knows that they can't be comfortable unless they did everything possible to make sure Vitter was (electorally) as dead as possible - the Kentucky polling collapse affirmed that.

Vitter wasn't really pressed much (no pun intended) on the scandal in 2010. When it came up, it was usually more of a side note. As the Democrats are trying to make this a referendum on Vitter, looks like they're trying to get more mileage out of Vitter's personal issues this time.

[Zioneer]

Vitter is reportedly making robocalls about Paris.

I haven't heard the audio itself, but politicizing Paris seems quite low, even by his standards.

It's pretty terrible, Vitter is clearly scraping the bottom of the gutter for this, especially since Louisiana has nothing to do with the Paris attacks. It's a Hail Mary move for sure, and I think it'll just generate bad news for him in these last couple of days.

[Landslide Lyndon]

^ From what I'm getting from my friends working on the campaign, think it was more a reaction to the Kentucky result than anything else. The Edwards team knows that they can't be comfortable unless they did everything possible to make sure Vitter was (electorally) as dead as possible - the Kentucky polling collapse affirmed that.

Vitter wasn't really pressed much (no pun intended) on the scandal in 2010. When it came up, it was usually more of a side note. As the Democrats are trying to make this a referendum on Vitter, looks like they're trying to get more mileage out of Vitter's personal issues this time.

Yeah, definitely better to be safe than sorry.