Bradford West by-election - 29th March

[You kip if you want to...]

Postal votes are rumoured to be "50/50".

Labour spin doctors doing some expectations management. There's no way, whatsoever, of anybody knowing that.

[Phony Moderate]

This is real....

http://www.twitvid.com/LGVHY

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This is real....

http://www.twitvid.com/LGVHY

Baffled by that...

But, then again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumour going round that it's 1. Labour, 2. Galloway, 3. Tories. Early by-election rumours are what they are, but you all know that.

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Sky journo at Bradford West predicting on Twitter
Labour
George
Tories

Although, anyone could've seen that one coming. Personally, i'm predicting a struggle for 4th as well.

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LabourList concurring with Sky journo's prediction.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember, most of that will have come from talking to activists not from looking at votes stack up. That kind of thing is right more often than it isn't, but if you want to know how most of the false results on Election Night are created...

[Phony Moderate]

Remember, most of that will have come from talking to activists not from looking at votes stack up. That kind of thing is right more often than it isn't, but if you want to know how most of the false results on Election Night are created...

LIB DEMS GAIN PERRY BARR!

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Win or lose, i'm still predicting a swing from the Tories and the Liberals to Labour.

[YL]

From Twitter:

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http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/50087/george_the_muslim%3F.html

Just lovely.

[Insula Dei]

When will we most likely have a result?

[Phony Moderate]

[You kip if you want to...]

When will we most likely have a result?

Media being told 1am.

So... probably more towards 2 or 2:30ish.

[YL]

When will we most likely have a result?

Labour List says between 1 and 2am; I suspect that is optimistic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When will we most likely have a result?

It's always hard to tell, but ages yet. They've probably not even started to count the votes. As a general rule, you can add a couple of hours on top of whatever the estimated declaration time is.

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Turnout very low. Possible low 30s. "Noticably large heaps" of postal votes for Galloway.

[YL]

Turnout very low. Possible low 30s. "Noticably large heaps" of postal votes for Galloway.

Someone on Twitter says the Tories say that it's 60-40 Galloway/Labour on postal votes.  Not the most reliable source.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The massive increase in questionable rumours is the downside of elections in the Twitter Age.

[YL]

BBC report just now suggests that there isn't really much information yet.  More tweets suggesting Galloway doing well, but what Al said.

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Sorry to sound like a complete and utter hack, but if Labour are doing so badly tonight, I can't imagine what the numbers'll be like for the ConDems...

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"An MP": George is doing "very well".

From Sky journos.

[YL]

Sorry to sound like a complete and utter hack, but if Labour are doing so badly tonight, I can't imagine what the numbers'll be like for the ConDems...

I suspect some Tories may have voted Galloway in the hope of embarrassing Labour.

A few years ago I'd have been ambivalent, but I am hoping Labour hold it.  That Galloway letter doesn't deserve to be part of a winning campaign, and a Labour embarrassment in a seat like this (even if it could easily be written off as a seat with a history of weird swings) would give the Government a break they don't deserve.

[You kip if you want to...]

Sorry to sound like a complete and utter hack, but if Labour are doing so badly tonight, I can't imagine what the numbers'll be like for the ConDems...

I suspect some Tories may have voted Galloway in the hope of embarrassing Labour.

A few years ago I'd have been ambivalent, but I am hoping Labour hold it.  That Galloway letter doesn't deserve to be part of a winning campaign, and a Labour embarrassment in a seat like this (even if it could easily be written off as a seat with a history of weird swings) would give the Government a break they don't deserve.

Galloway never ceases to disgust me. As someone descended from Pakistani Muslims, that letter is just downright... disgusting. Vile.

[YL]

Another tweet dodgy rumour says 1. Respect 2. Labour 3. UKIP 4. Tories.  I suspect this isn't based on a representative sample: remember the constituency is quite diverse.