if we were at our fourth straight D win in 2020

[freepcrusher]

would kennedy have given up?

[Vosem]

Lean no -- he had to be cajoled into giving up in 2018, and all reports were that he still liked the job and was only willing to go in exchange for concessions like having input on who his successor was.

The more interesting possibility is that Alito might've -- there are occasionally intermittent reports that he's gotten tired of his role and it's probably true that he seriously considered retiring in the summer/fall of 2020; it's possible that he only stuck around to not distract from ACB's confirmation, although the timing doesn't really work and my guess is that this is not true. It's been Alito's career-long dream to overturn Roe and if that became clearly impossible I can see him deciding to just quit, since he's considered just quitting in the past. (My guess is that for the next GOP President -- whether that's Trump or DeSantis or any other figure -- Alito retires in, like, month one. More than anyone else currently on the Court, he's accomplished what he set out to do and he's been ready for some time now for the handover to the next generation.) Whereas Kennedy relished power and attention his whole life.

[freepcrusher]

i got ptsd just from reading your post. Like if that was his goal why on earth did Lautenberg and Bradley let him on. Like just thinking about that gives me fantasies about Westboro style picketing happening in 20 years (or whenever it happens).

I sometimes think I need to take psychotropic drugs and keep myself sane and not torture myself waiting for "judicial VE day" or "judicial VJ day" and have faith in Allah (or in this case Earl) that the day will come.

[Skill and Chance]

Lean no -- he had to be cajoled into giving up in 2018, and all reports were that he still liked the job and was only willing to go in exchange for concessions like having input on who his successor was.

The more interesting possibility is that Alito might've -- there are occasionally intermittent reports that he's gotten tired of his role and it's probably true that he seriously considered retiring in the summer/fall of 2020; it's possible that he only stuck around to not distract from ACB's confirmation, although the timing doesn't really work and my guess is that this is not true. It's been Alito's career-long dream to overturn Roe and if that became clearly impossible I can see him deciding to just quit, since he's considered just quitting in the past. (My guess is that for the next GOP President -- whether that's Trump or DeSantis or any other figure -- Alito retires in, like, month one. More than anyone else currently on the Court, he's accomplished what he set out to do and he's been ready for some time now for the handover to the next generation.) Whereas Kennedy relished power and attention his whole life.

Hmmmm... but does that mindset continue if he knows he's not the swing vote anymore and (assuming Clinton appointed young liberal replacements for RBG and Breyer in addition to putting a liberal in Scalia's seat) he has no reasonable chance of regaining that status within a decade?  Maybe, as being the 6th most liberal or 6th most conservative means your vote can still be decisive in historically memorable cases from time to time (the most notable in recent times would be Roberts in NFIB v. Sebelius), but I'm not sure?

I can't fathom Alito intentionally retiring under a Democratic president.  I think the more interesting question is Roberts.  He doesn't strike me as someone who would be happy dissenting all the time as part of a conservative rump, and between Kennedy and the 5 liberals, he wouldn't exactly have a lot of negotiating power on this court.  He might even think it's institutionally  proper for a solidly liberal court to have a liberal CJ? 

[NewYorkExpress]

I can see Alito, knowing that he wrote the opinion that overturned Roe retiring in 2025 or 2026 no matter who wins in 2024.

He really doesn't strike me as someone who cares about who replaces him either.

Roberts also strikes me as someone likely will retire in the near future, if only because I think he's sick and tired of being on the court in general, and might be interested in either private practice or a different job that either a Democratic or Republican Administration could offer (he might actually be tempted to leave the Court if the U.S joins the ICC and Roberts is promised a judgeship there, for example. That might actually be more prestigious an honor, even though he might with the premise of that court. Same idea for all three liberals on the court, actually.)

[NewYorkExpress]

Lean no -- he had to be cajoled into giving up in 2018, and all reports were that he still liked the job and was only willing to go in exchange for concessions like having input on who his successor was.

The more interesting possibility is that Alito might've -- there are occasionally intermittent reports that he's gotten tired of his role and it's probably true that he seriously considered retiring in the summer/fall of 2020; it's possible that he only stuck around to not distract from ACB's confirmation, although the timing doesn't really work and my guess is that this is not true. It's been Alito's career-long dream to overturn Roe and if that became clearly impossible I can see him deciding to just quit, since he's considered just quitting in the past. (My guess is that for the next GOP President -- whether that's Trump or DeSantis or any other figure -- Alito retires in, like, month one. More than anyone else currently on the Court, he's accomplished what he set out to do and he's been ready for some time now for the handover to the next generation.) Whereas Kennedy relished power and attention his whole life.

Hmmmm... but does that mindset continue if he knows he's not the swing vote anymore and (assuming Clinton appointed young liberal replacements for RBG and Breyer in addition to putting a liberal in Scalia's seat) he has no reasonable chance of regaining that status within a decade?  Maybe, as being the 6th most liberal or 6th most conservative means your vote can still be decisive in historically memorable cases from time to time (the most notable in recent times would be Roberts in NFIB v. Sebelius), but I'm not sure?

I can't fathom Alito intentionally retiring under a Democratic president.  I think the more interesting question is Roberts.  He doesn't strike me as someone who would be happy dissenting all the time as part of a conservative rump, and between Kennedy and the 5 liberals, he wouldn't exactly have a lot of negotiating power on this court.  He might even think it's institutionally  proper for a solidly liberal court to have a liberal CJ?  

Disagree. Roberts would be in the majority more often then you think, at least as long as Breyer and Ginsburg are on the court, because they were willing to cross the aisle on a lot of issues. So is Kagan for that matter. Once Breyer leaves, it's likely a 5-4 divided court with Robert, Kagan as the swing justices, as Kennedy shifts back to the right (except for maybe issues like abortion).

[Donerail]

I sometimes think I need to take psychotropic drugs and keep myself sane

I think that would be a good idea