Which 269-269 tie is most likely in 2020?
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  Which 269-269 tie is most likely in 2020? 		« previous next »
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Author Topic: Which 269-269 tie is most likely in 2020?  (Read 941 times)
Horatii
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« on: August 10, 2018, 03:04:45 PM »




I'd say these two scenarios are the most easy to imagine happening. Are there any others that you think are more likely?
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2018, 03:07:09 PM »
Option A because WI and AZ wont vote to the left of PA
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Peanut
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2018, 04:00:08 PM »
MI, PA, and ME-02 flip
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twenty42
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« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2018, 04:08:25 PM »
2016 - MI - WI - PA - ME-02 + NV + NH.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2018, 04:08:34 PM »
Here's one scenario, although it would require the Republican to win Colorado, which would be a tall order:
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2018, 04:14:45 PM »

This is clearly the easiest way to do it.
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cvparty
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« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2018, 04:19:00 PM »
1st, but NE-2 flipping before WI is pretty unlikely
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2018, 07:14:23 PM »
I really believe that 2020 is about the following:

MI
WI
PA
FL

FL is almost as likely to flip to the Dems as the others are likely to remain in GOP hands.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2018, 07:22:04 PM »
Definitely A, but this might be even more likely:
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2018, 09:46:34 PM »
Trump winning NH, NV and Dems winning CO, WI, MI, Pa and IL
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SN2903
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« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2018, 09:52:57 PM »
The first map.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2018, 02:53:06 PM »
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ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2018, 10:41:52 PM »
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2018, 03:41:03 PM »
Map 2

Trump probably isn't maxed out quite yet on white votes in PA, and even an Obama performance in Philly isn't enough anymore. Also NE-02 before Wisconsin is pretty ridiculous.

Whereas Wisconsin was just a turnout problem.
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2018, 03:44:57 PM »
Gonna be "edgy" and say map 2. Not sure why Wisconsin voting to the left of Pennsylvania is such an impossibility in the eyes of Atlas, considering it did happen in 2008 and 2012, and was only .05% to the right of Pennsylvania in 2016.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2018, 03:34:10 PM »
For a third possibility, see my comment under "What's the oddest electoral map possible in 2020?"

Here's a fourth, in case the Dem appeals strongly to the Rust Belt and stumbles in the West:
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2018, 06:00:16 AM »
Dems flip AZ-WISC-MICH ... all else stays the same (not sure if most likely... but a definite possibility)
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