Arizona and Michigan county maps

[ndcohn]

So I haven't made a prediction map yet, but one kind of fun thing to think about is the strong, negative correlation between Romney's 12' vote and Huckabee's 08 vote. It's a great predictor of how Romney will fare in a given county, and would have almost exactly nailed the Florida map. For the statistically inclined, the r^2 is .8

I wrote a blog post on it here, and there's also a map of how that would play out in Michigan.
http://electionate.com/2012/02/19/predictions-revisited-the-ghost-of-huckabee/

[ndcohn]

I still haven't done my projection map, but I think Livingston County is solid Romney:
-highest median household income in the state
-5% of households make more than 200k (Romney hasn't lost a single county in a primary where more than 5% make 200k+)
-Huckabee did poorly / Romney did well
-Not especially evangelical
-More than 10% have a post-grad education. Romney has won every county where more than 10% have a postgrad degree, except Alachua County, FL

[ndcohn]

I'm going with this map
justification here
http://electionate.com/2012/02/26/michigan-primary-preview/

[ndcohn]

If black voters are participating in cross-voting as much as white dems, that could really influence MI-13.
http://electionate.com/2012/02/28/michigan-too-close-thoughts-on-democratic-crossovers/