Arizona and Michigan county maps

[ilikeverin]

So here is Michigan:

Er, no.  At the very least, you're severely overrepresenting the size of the Romney cluster that will exist in southeast Michigan; for example, I would be surprised if Santorum doesn't win Livingston County.  Though Grand Rapids is full of hipsters, as I'm sure you know, well, hipsters don't vote in primaries and the rightists in Grand Rapids are still of the Christian Reformed type, likely to go for Santorum.  Ingham County will probably go Romney, but likely less than 40%, thanks to MSU.  (same story re: Washtenaw County)  Clinton might go Romney, too; it depends on how well his margin is in the Lansing exurbs compared to the rural hinterlands.

[ilikeverin]

So here is Michigan:

Er, no.  At the very least, you're severely overrepresenting the size of the Romney cluster that will exist in southeast Michigan; for example, I would be surprised if Santorum doesn't win Livingston County.  Though Grand Rapids is full of hipsters, as I'm sure you know, well, hipsters don't vote in primaries and the rightists in Grand Rapids are still of the Christian Reformed type, likely to go for Santorum.  Ingham County will probably go Romney, but likely less than 40%, thanks to MSU.  (same story re: Washtenaw County)  Clinton might go Romney, too; it depends on how well his margin is in the Lansing exurbs compared to the rural hinterlands.

Romney would have to really fall from 2008 to lose Livingston.

Does Grand Rapids really have hipsters? I thought it was a pretty boring place, yes they have one of the trendiest bands in hardcore today (La Dispute), but I don't think you would've heard of them. But all urban areas seem to be big for Romney, see Jacksonville, also see the lack of Huckabee strength in Kent in 2008.

Hmm, I didn't realize that Romney did so well in Livingston County; I guess I didn't realize the extent to which Brighton et al. have more population in them than the Howell bits.  (Livingston County is well-known as the most racist county in the Lower Peninsula, and tends to be considered a little slice of the South smack dab in the Detroit metro.)  And, yeah, Grand Rapids proper is known for being quite hipster-y.  Keep in mind that Rob Bell's church (perhaps he's too mainstream for you? ) is right next to Grand Rapids.  However, it's also known that the rest of Western Michigan is full of wacko fundie Christian Reformed people.

[ilikeverin]

Yes I know who Rob Bell is, my church planting pastor buddy is a huge fan of his most recent book and is basically lending it to anyone who asks (I haven't yet).

You should.  We watched his NOOMA videos all the time at my Minnesota church, and I think you'd really connect with him.

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Er, the music I listen to is almost exclusively classical or from video games, and the only concert I've ever been to was a Weird Al concert at the Minnesota State Fair.  I have no idea why you'd be at all shocked to find out that I have no idea what on earth that random band is or does.