What happens if Santorum wins Ohio?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

How will it change things if Frothy wins Ohio?

[Eraserhead]

He'd become a serious threat to Romney again, at least for a while.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

He'd become a serious threat to Romney again, at least for a while.

[ajb]

He'd become a serious threat to Romney again, at least for a while.

Especially when you consider the states coming up after Super Tuesday (leaving aside the territories):

10 March: KS
13 March: AL, MS, HI
20 March: IL
24 March: LA
3 April: DC, MD, WI

Then another long break, till April 24, with CT, DE, RI, NY, PA.

With the (important) exception of Illinois, there aren't any contests both friendly to Romney and important enough to matter till April. Losing KS, AL and MS (as I think he's likely to, so long as there's a viable alternative left), will not help consolidate his status as front-runner.

[Yelnoc]

He'd become a serious threat to Romney again, at least for a while.

Especially when you consider the states coming up after Super Tuesday (leaving aside the territories):

10 March: KS
13 March: AL, MS, HI
20 March: IL
24 March: LA
3 April: DC, MD, WI

Then another long break, till April 24, with CT, DE, RI, NY, PA.

With the (important) exception of Illinois, there aren't any contests both friendly to Romney and important enough to matter till April. Losing KS, AL and MS (as I think he's likely to, so long as there's a viable alternative left), will not help consolidate his status as front-runner.

Yes, Santorum winning Ohio is key to making this go to the convention.

[Likely Voter]

OH isn't Rick's most important state on Super Tuesday. GA is the most important. If he can knock Newt out of the race, then he can finally go one on one with Romney. A OH win would be icing on the cake.

[TomC]

To me it's a question of regions. Romney's got the northeast and west (and florida), Santorum's got the midwest, Gingrich has the South. So, what we still don't know is: what happens in rust belt states (where there's no "home state" claim) and what happens in the South if Gingrich bows out or slides into nothingness (Georgia excluded)?

So Santorum needs not only Ohio, but wins in the South as well- then each has two regions they can win. Washington would be a nice coup for either- Romney because Santorum should have an advantage with heavy so cons and Santorum because it is out of the two regions where he should do the best.

The only real path for Santorum I see is to deny Mitt a majority and force a brokered convention (and get Gingrich's vocal support).

If Santorum loses Ohio, or Gingrich wins Southern states in addition to Georgia, I don't see how he stops Romney at all.

[ajb]

OH isn't Rick's most important state on Super Tuesday. GA is the most important. If he can knock Newt out of the race, then he can finally go one on one with Romney. A OH win would be icing on the cake.

Maybe, though I doubt that Santorum will win GA. But OH is must-win, I think, for Romney.

[TomC]

OH isn't Rick's most important state on Super Tuesday. GA is the most important. If he can knock Newt out of the race, then he can finally go one on one with Romney. A OH win would be icing on the cake.

Maybe, though I doubt that Santorum will win GA. But OH is must-win, I think, for Romney.

No, it's more must win for Rick.

[ajb]

OH isn't Rick's most important state on Super Tuesday. GA is the most important. If he can knock Newt out of the race, then he can finally go one on one with Romney. A OH win would be icing on the cake.

Maybe, though I doubt that Santorum will win GA. But OH is must-win, I think, for Romney.

No, it's more must win for Rick.

If Romney loses Ohio, one of the biggest swing states in the country, he's going to be right back where he was before winning Michigan last night. Only worse, since it will be the third time he has failed to leverage a major primary victory into uncontested front-runner status.

[Likely Voter]

I'm sure given a choice between winning OH or GA, Rick would chose GA...or at least he should.

[TomC]

OH isn't Rick's most important state on Super Tuesday. GA is the most important. If he can knock Newt out of the race, then he can finally go one on one with Romney. A OH win would be icing on the cake.

Maybe, though I doubt that Santorum will win GA. But OH is must-win, I think, for Romney.

No, it's more must win for Rick.

If Romney loses Ohio, one of the biggest swing states in the country, he's going to be right back where he was before winning Michigan last night. Only worse, since it will be the third time he has failed to leverage a major primary victory into uncontested front-runner status.

Romney may be back where he was perceptions-wise, but he'll still have a good delegate lead.

[© tweed]

1144 starts to look like a fading dot in the horizon

[ajb]

OH isn't Rick's most important state on Super Tuesday. GA is the most important. If he can knock Newt out of the race, then he can finally go one on one with Romney. A OH win would be icing on the cake.

Maybe, though I doubt that Santorum will win GA. But OH is must-win, I think, for Romney.

No, it's more must win for Rick.

If Romney loses Ohio, one of the biggest swing states in the country, he's going to be right back where he was before winning Michigan last night. Only worse, since it will be the third time he has failed to leverage a major primary victory into uncontested front-runner status.

Romney may be back where he was perceptions-wise, but he'll still have a good delegate lead.

He will, but he'll be a long way from a majority, and March will be a tough month for him.

[Likely Voter]

Even if Romney loses OH, it is hard to imagine he wont end the night with a majority of delegates awarded in total so far.

[Tidewater_Wave]

If Santorum wins OH, I don't see it spreading. It's an uphill battle for him the whole way because of finances. Voters in primaries tend to vote for whoever has the best chance of winning too and he's still seen as less likely to win than Romney.  If anything, it's a scare to Romney that his party still isn't behind him and united.

[ajb]

If Santorum wins OH, I don't see it spreading. It's an uphill battle for him the whole way because of finances. Voters in primaries tend to vote for whoever has the best chance of winning too and he's still seen as less likely to win than Romney.  If anything, it's a scare to Romney that his party still isn't behind him and united.

But the next few contests after Super Tuesday are KS, AL, MS and HI. I can't see Romney winning KS, AL or MS as long as there's still a candidate to his right. He might well win Hawaii, but I wouldn't want to be the spin guy explaining why winning Hawaii mattered more in a Republican primary than winning KS, AL and MS.
After that comes Illinois, where Romney has more of a chance (but no chance in the general), but by then he'd have had a few more weeks of bad news.

[Tidewater_Wave]

I see what you're saying but Romney seems to bounce back every time he's down. Look at the results last night after Santorum's surge. If Romney and Santorum were even in campaign financing, then I'd agree. We have at least another month of the GOP primary.

[ajb]

I see what you're saying but Romney seems to bounce back every time he's down. Look at the results last night after Santorum's surge. If Romney and Santorum were even in campaign financing, then I'd agree. We have at least another month of the GOP primary.

He also seems to fall down every time he bounces back.
I don't think it's terribly likely that Santorum will win the nomination, but I'm not at all convinced that Romney's going to have an easy win.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

If Santorum wins Ohio, he gets potentially 63 delegates.  But Romney 49 from Virginia.  Winning Ohio won't matter if he doesn't cary most of the other states that day, and it looks like him and Romney will split the number of states pretty evenly.  The problem is that Santorum won't get all of Ohio's delegates, and many of the Santorum states will have delegates split close to evenly (maybe at best 65-35), while Romney will take most all of the delegates from the states he wins.  Ultimately, it'll probably be pretty close to convention.

[Tidewater_Wave]

I see what you're saying but Romney seems to bounce back every time he's down. Look at the results last night after Santorum's surge. If Romney and Santorum were even in campaign financing, then I'd agree. We have at least another month of the GOP primary.

He also seems to fall down every time he bounces back.
I don't think it's terribly likely that Santorum will win the nomination, but I'm not at all convinced that Romney's going to have an easy win.

Agreed

[J. J.]

OH isn't Rick's most important state on Super Tuesday. GA is the most important. If he can knock Newt out of the race, then he can finally go one on one with Romney. A OH win would be icing on the cake.

Maybe, though I doubt that Santorum will win GA. But OH is must-win, I think, for Romney.

No, it's more must win for Rick.

If Romney loses Ohio, one of the biggest swing states in the country, he's going to be right back where he was before winning Michigan last night. Only worse, since it will be the third time he has failed to leverage a major primary victory into uncontested front-runner status.

Romney may be back where he was perceptions-wise, but he'll still have a good delegate lead.

He will, but he'll be a long way from a majority, and March will be a tough month for him.

Even perceptions will be difficult, if he doesn't win other states.  The threat, in terms of staying power, is Gingrich.  He stays in and Santorum has a problem.