NY-20 Final Predictions

[Holmes]

It wouldn't drag on like Minnesota though... there'd be the mandatory recount and that'd be it. Republicans have nothing to gain by obstructing Murphy because they're already a tiny minority in the House anyway and there's no fillibuster.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Tedisco - 51%
Murphy - 49%

[Associate Justice PiT]

Tedisco -- 50.73%
Murphy -- 49.27%     

[Shilly]

Murphy - 52.91%
Tedisco - 47.09%

[Verily]

It wouldn't drag on like Minnesota though... there'd be the mandatory recount and that'd be it. Republicans have nothing to gain by obstructing Murphy because they're already a tiny minority in the House anyway and there's no fillibuster.

More importantly, New York law doesn't have a provision for essentially infinite appeals.

[Eraserhead]

Tedisco- 53.2%
Murphy- 46.8%

Lief the pessimist? What is this I see?

[Ronnie]

Murphy: 51%
Tedisco: 49%

[Rowan]

I'm changing my prediction, Tedisco will win:

Tedisco 53%
Murphy 47%

[CARLHAYDEN]

Tedisco     52%
Murphy     48

[Torie]

Is there some poll of something that came out today that caused this tide turning mass rush to predict a Tedisco win on this thread?  I am just curious. Maybe it is all a coincidence.

[Meeker]

Murphy 51.38
Tedisco 48.62

Though I've really got no idea

[Eraserhead]

I'm changing my prediction, Tedisco will win:

Tedisco 53%
Murphy 47%

why?

[Rowan]

I'm changing my prediction, Tedisco will win:

Tedisco 53%
Murphy 47%

why?

I was looking over the internals of the Siena poll again. The Siena poll breaks down by counties/area. They have Tedisco winning 49-43 in Saratoga/Rensselaer which are two out of the three highest population counties in the district. Also, they have Murphy winning 58-29 in Essex/Warren/Washington, which is hard to believe considering Obama only won Essex by 13, and Warren and Washington were 50/50 races. Also, I believe Tedisco will get more than the 64% of Republicans as shown. Furthermore, there are 9% of Republicans undecided compared to only 5% of Democrats.

[Keystone Phil]

Tedisco by 4.5%

Wow. Well, thanks for possibly sacrificing yourself in the event of a Murphy win. As someone who also predicted a Tedisco win (but not by nearly as much), I thank you. 

[Lief 🗽]

Tedisco- 53.2%
Murphy- 46.8%

Lief the pessimist? What is this I see?

I got a bad feeling, man. I'd love to be proven wrong though.

[Smash255]

I'm changing my prediction, Tedisco will win:

Tedisco 53%
Murphy 47%

why?

I was looking over the internals of the Siena poll again. The Siena poll breaks down by counties/area. They have Tedisco winning 49-43 in Saratoga/Rensselaer which are two out of the three highest population counties in the district. Also, they have Murphy winning 58-29 in Essex/Warren/Washington, which is hard to believe considering Obama only won Essex by 13, and Warren and Washington were 50/50 races. Also, I believe Tedisco will get more than the 64% of Republicans as shown. Furthermore, there are 9% of Republicans undecided compared to only 5% of Democrats.

The internals always have a higher MOE than the poll as a whole because the sample sizes are smaller, but just because the internals might be a bit off doesn't mean the poll is a bit off as it tends to cancel out.

[Smash255]

Murphy - 51.88614%
Tedisco - 48.11386%

Tedisco is a loser with a sh**tty haircut.  Murphy is just a fag who can't smile.  Murphy wins.  The media will hail the special election as a victory for Obama and a vote of confidence on the stimulus, when in fact the race will be lost because Tedisco is a horrible candidate.

Fact of the matter is Murphy picked up steam when this became a race between an Obama Democrat and a National Republican rather than a local race between Murphy and Tedisco....

[Marokai Backbeat]

If this was election day, I'd be comfortable predicting a solid Murphy win, but this is a special election, special elections have low turnout, Republicans benefit from low turnout, therefore the Republican has a higher chance of winning. Let alone the fact that this is a fairly Republican/Blue Dog district.

Truth of the matter is this race means absolutely nothing, whether Murphy wins or loses. It's not a referendum on Obama or the stimulus, or really even the Republican Party (though an argument could be made that is the case) because this is just going to be an obscure low-turnout Special Election. In any other instance we wouldn't be paying half a mind to this race.

But of course the media will hype it either way.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Tedisco 52.73%
Murphy 47.27%

It took a while for someone to break political ranks!

[Meeker]

Tedisco 52.73%
Murphy 47.27%

It took a while for someone to break political ranks!

Tedisco- 53.2%
Murphy- 46.8%

[Sam Spade]

I believe I should add a couple of points to my non-prediction.

First off, I will predict special elections, for now, if they occur in "the South", because those races, so long as Obama is in the White House, will be quite predictable.  Other races don't have that air of predictability as of yet.

Second, Republicans would be much better off long-term if they lost today.  I don't feel as if a bottom is in yet.

[The Ex-Factor]

Why would Republicans be better off if they lost today? I doubt this special election is going to significantly alter the long-term fates of either party, if at all.

[minionofmidas]

Why would Republicans be better off if they lost today? I doubt this special election is going to significantly alter the long-term fates of either party, if at all.

Spin that the party is on the right track, and a strengthening of its current (esp. congressional) leadership, is probably not in the party's longterm interests.
They're in danger of falling into the same trap they fell into in ca.1935. And you know how that turned out for them.

[Sam Spade]

Why would Republicans be better off if they lost today? I doubt this special election is going to significantly alter the long-term fates of either party, if at all.

Spin that the party is on the right track, and a strengthening of its current (esp. congressional) leadership, is probably not in the party's longterm interests.
They're in danger of falling into the same trap they fell into in ca.1935. And you know how that turned out for them.

This isn't 1935, rather it's more like 1930 where 1929 was in the opposite parties' hands.  Which makes everything a bit more confusing.

But I think we probably agree on the general points, yes.

[minionofmidas]

Why would Republicans be better off if they lost today? I doubt this special election is going to significantly alter the long-term fates of either party, if at all.

Spin that the party is on the right track, and a strengthening of its current (esp. congressional) leadership, is probably not in the party's longterm interests.
They're in danger of falling into the same trap they fell into in ca.1935. And you know how that turned out for them.

This isn't 1935, rather it's more like 1930 where 1929 was in the opposite parties' hands.  Which makes everything a bit more confusing.

But I think we probably agree on the general points, yes.

Yeah, obviously the analogy isn't an exact one. Anyways I was talking a worst case scenario, really.