Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Sam Spade]

And Zogby is a Democrat, and I'd though R2K's founder was actually a GOP-leaning independent.  I think we're putting too much stock into the R2K/Kos-as-political-propaganda idea.

Del Ali - I don't think so.  Besides, R2000 has a history of polling for Democrats.

And btw, I'm not putting too much stock into it, Alcon.  But the fact is that it can't be ignored, which is the reason why I mention it.  

[J. J.]

And Zogby is a Democrat, and I'd though R2K's founder was actually a GOP-leaning independent.  I think we're putting too much stock into the R2K/Kos-as-political-propaganda idea.

The only problem I have with it is the weighting.

Yea, OK, cool, so basically it's like Hotline, but with objectionable weighting.  I actually agree with Spade that Hotline has some strange methodology quirks too, so I put them basically in the same caliber (question, maybe tinker, but don't ignore)

Hotline doesn't have the track record of R2Kos, but if the weighting was fixed, I'd rank with Hotline.

[Alcon]

Hotline doesn't have the track record of R2Kos, but if the weighting was fixed, I'd rank with Hotline.

Eh?  Hotline has the same track record as a national poll, and less as a state poll.

Del Ali - I don't think so.  Besides, R2000 has a history of polling for Democrats.

And btw, I'm not putting too much stock into it, Alcon.  But the fact is that it can't be ignored, which is the reason why I mention it. 

Cool with me.  And I actually think the Zogby thing, which I hadn't heard, if it's true, is worth mentioning.  Zogby's...news-making...might be influenced by his clients.

[J. J.]

Hotline doesn't have the track record of R2Kos, but if the weighting was fixed, I'd rank with Hotline.

Eh?  Hotline has the same track record as a national poll, and less as a state poll.

I don't remember Hotline from 2004?

[Lunar]

Hotline doesn't have the track record of R2Kos, but if the weighting was fixed, I'd rank with Hotline.

Eh?  Hotline has the same track record as a national poll, and less as a state poll.

I don't remember Hotline from 2004?

exactly.

[Alcon]

Hotline doesn't have the track record of R2Kos, but if the weighting was fixed, I'd rank with Hotline.

Eh?  Hotline has the same track record as a national poll, and less as a state poll.

I don't remember Hotline from 2004?

Yeah, my point man

[Sam Spade]

Cool with me.  And I actually think the Zogby thing, which I hadn't heard, if it's true, is worth mentioning.  Zogby's...news-making...might be influenced by his clients.

The only thing I found supporting ChrisfromNJ's claims (on Google) is from this Daily Kos diary and it deals with a Zogby Interactive poll.  It would also make an important difference whether this was done before the horserace question or after it.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/15/13844/116

[Alcon]

Cool with me.  And I actually think the Zogby thing, which I hadn't heard, if it's true, is worth mentioning.  Zogby's...news-making...might be influenced by his clients.

The only thing I found supporting ChrisfromNJ's claims (on Google) is from this Daily Kos diary and it deals with a Zogby Interactive poll.  It would also make an important difference whether this was done before the horserace question or after it.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/15/13844/116

Poisons his later samples, since they're almost all the same.   I don't understand why Zogby would have done that...he's a Democrat, IIRC.

[Sam Spade]

Cool with me.  And I actually think the Zogby thing, which I hadn't heard, if it's true, is worth mentioning.  Zogby's...news-making...might be influenced by his clients.

The only thing I found supporting ChrisfromNJ's claims (on Google) is from this Daily Kos diary and it deals with a Zogby Interactive poll.  It would also make an important difference whether this was done before the horserace question or after it.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/15/13844/116

Poisons his later samples, since they're almost all the same.   I don't understand why Zogby would have done that...he's a Democrat, IIRC.

Right, because of the self-selected nature of his Interactive polls.  Well, regardless of anything, they're clearly junk. 

But they aren't the telephone poll, which is what I'm referring to.

[Alcon]

Yeah, I know, but unless the GOP is investing in him (in some sense), wtf?

[Sam Spade]

Yeah, I know, but unless the GOP is investing in him (in some sense), wtf?

It's been a long time since I played in the Zogby Interactive world, but your question is causing me to think about questions he's asked before. 

I know that, during 2007, his polls always had a number of questions that dealt with Hillary in a positive light, but I don't remember anything else.  There were a few Democratic slanted questions back then too.

[Tender Branson]

IBD
Obama 46.6%(-.60)
McCain 41.5%(+1.7)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY7.htm

18-24 year olds voting for McCain by 10 points ?

A tied South ? What the hell is their definition of "South" ?

[Tender Branson]

The Powell-Boost:

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Monday, October 20:

Obama: 50 (+2)
McCain: 44 (-1)

Obama leads among independent voters by a 49% to 38% margin, adding three points to his advantage over McCain. Both candidates have remained strong among their political bases – McCain wins 88% of Republicans, compared to 89% of Democrats who support Obama.

Men are now slightly favoring Obama, who leads by just two percentage points among the group – yesterday’s report showed McCain with a two-point lead among men. Obama leads by eight points among women.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1598

[Lief 🗽]

Zogby's great.

[Tender Branson]

Zogby's great.

I suspect it's either a slight Powell and Fundraising bounce, or a few bad Obama-samples dropping out today. I think it's the latter ...

BTW: According to the Reuters News release, McCain leads 53-40 among Whites.

[cinyc]

Zogby's great.

Zogby's great at making up poll numbers to generate headlines.  Other than that, I don't think Zogby's that great, regardless of who he claims is leading on any given day.

[Zarn]

A fundraising bounce? Really?

How can you have a fundraising bounce?

[Eraserhead]

Zogby's great.

Zogby's great at making up poll numbers to generate headlines.  Other than that, I don't think Zogby's that great, regardless of who he claims is leading on any given day.

Well, he certainly won't be getting the headline on Drudge today with these kinds of numbers.

[J. J.]

IBD
Obama 46.6%(-.60)
McCain 41.5%(+1.7)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY7.htm

18-24 year olds voting for McCain by 10 points ?

A tied South ? What the hell is their definition of "South" ?

I asked about that before, on the 18-24 year olds.  It's a subsample and a very small one.

[pepper11]

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/20

Obama 47% (-1)
McCain 42% (+1)

GW Battleground - 10/20

Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

RCP has its closest margin in weeks - 4.8 Obama.

[J. J.]

A fundraising bounce? Really?

How can you have a fundraising bounce?

You can have a bandwagon effect that fundraising is part of; I would argue highlighting it would have only helped Obama.

[ill ind]

  IBD/TIPP for 10/20

McCain 41.4%  (-.1%)
Obama 46.7% (+.1%)
Undecided  12.9%


Ill Ind

From Illinois--definitely not one of the 'pro-America' parts of America :->

[André]

Today ABC News and Washington Post released a daily tracking poll.

likely voters:

Obama 53 % (nc)
McCain 44 % (+1)

registered voters:

Obama 52 %
McCain 42 %

"The Post-ABC national tracking poll started Oct. 16, the day after the final presidential debate, and continues through Nov. 3. Each day's release includes the results of a multiple-night track - a "rolling average" - of interviews with approximately 450 randomly-selected adults each day. This release reports the results from interviewing conducted Thursday through Sunday night, with 1,366 likely voters."

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2008/10/wapo-abc_daily_tracking_1.html

By the way...  Hello to erverybody from germany!

[freedomburns]

Today ABC News and Washington Post released a daily tracking poll.

likely voters:

Obama 53 % (nc)
McCain 44 % (+1)

registered voters:

Obama 52 %
McCain 42 %

"The Post-ABC national tracking poll started Oct. 16, the day after the final presidential debate, and continues through Nov. 3. Each day's release includes the results of a multiple-night track - a "rolling average" - of interviews with approximately 450 randomly-selected adults each day. This release reports the results from interviewing conducted Thursday through Sunday night, with 1,366 likely voters."

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2008/10/wapo-abc_daily_tracking_1.html

By the way...  Hello to erverybody from germany!

Wow!  Looks awesome!  Can you spell L A N D S L I D E?

The race is widening, not tightening.  More proof here.  Don't believe the BS media hype.  They want you to think it's tightening because it increases the drama and increases their ratings.  This race is not tightening.

WELCOME TO THE ATLAS FORUM ANDRE!

[Rowan]

Zogster
Obama 50.3%(+.5)
McCain 42.4%(-2)