It all depends on his performance in the next couple debates. If the next couple of debates prove the first one is a fluke, then Obama returns to the lead. Otherwise, Romney might be looking at a win.
Obama will still win the election even if he loses the next two debates. Of course the first debate was a fluke. It was Obama's worst presidential debate (he never performed that badly in the 3 against McCain and the 15 or so in the primaries) ever, and it was Mitt Romney's best debate ever. It isn't that Romney was so good in debate #1, it's that Obama was so bad. The campaign is obviously going to change up their debate strategy for him and it's unthinkable that he will be that bad again in the next two. Like I said, even if he loses the next two, Obama will still win. Kerry beat Bush in the debates and lost. Unfortunately for Romney, the next debate is a town-hall debate, not exactly a suitable forum for a robotic candidate. Also unfortunately for Romney, the third debate is on foreign policy, which is Obama's strong-suit and Romney's weakness.