Indonesia-Presidential and Parliamentary elections-17th April

[urutzizu]

So the worlds largest Muslim country and third largest democracy just voted for a new president and Parliament.

The two contenders for the Presidency are (Indonesian law only allows two):

Joko Widodo, incumbent President


Jokowi is generally seen as a secularist (his running mate is a islamic cleric however) and has tried to attract chinese investment (Belt and Road), which is very controvesial.
 
The other Contestant is Prabowo Subianto
 

Although Prabowo, a former Army officer claims to be secularist as well (his brother and mother are christian), he has the backing of many controversial islamist groups and has openly courted religious voters, trying to ride a more assertive islam that has begun to appear in usally very tolerant Indonesia.

[urutzizu]

Polls have closed couple of hours ago and while official results wont come in for a long time, first unofficial "quick counts" give Jokowi a lead.

[urutzizu]

In the Parliamentary election:

PDIP, the ruling Party of Jokowi is leading with 26.41%
Golkar, one of his allies has 12.5%

Gerinda, Prabowos party has 11.14%

PKS, the Hardline Islamists backing Prabowo have 5.53%

The electoral Threshold is 4%, seats are allocated by Proportional Representation, meaning whoever wins will have form a large coalition.

[urutzizu]

Jokowi still in the lead with quick counts surpassing 50% counted:

LITBANG KOMPAS: Jokowi-Ma'ruf 54.17%; Prabowo-Sandiaga 45.83% based on 65.85% of sample ballots

INDO BAROMETER: Jokowi-Ma'ruf 52.8%; Prabowo-Sandiaga 47.2% based on 65.5% of sample ballots

CHARTA POLITIKA: Jokowi-Ma'ruf 54.51%; Prabowo-Sandiaga 45.49% based on 79.33% of sample ballots

POLTRACKING: Jokowi-Ma'ruf 54.8%; Prabowo-Sandiaga 45.2% based on 76.65% of sample ballots

INDIKATOR: Jokowi-Ma'ruf 54.32%; Prabowo-Sandiaga 45.68% based on 72.11% of sample ballots

[jaichind]

Prabowo claims victory, citing his own surveys, just like 5 years ago.  Main difference this time is Jokowi seems to be holding back on claiming victory to try to clam things down. 

[jaichind]

Prabowo, moments earlier, pointed to exit polls and several quick counts that he said showed he had won the election. He said an internal exit poll showed he had won 55.4 percent of the vote

[Lachi]

Right, so basically what we are seeing is par for the course reaction from Prabowo..

Also, shoutout to Kompas TV who was just using the same music that they use here on the ABC in Australia during election night.

[urutzizu]

Basically all quick counts are at 80%+ counted and Jokowi’s lead remains at about 55-45.
The Straits Times (which is quite reliable) has called it for Jokowi.
So in essence this election is almost a complete repeat of 2014.

Prabowo will be allowed to attempt to challenge this in court (similar to last time), but extremely unlikely that anything will happen, considering he has no real substance to back up his claims.

Hopefully  Jokowi will now, since he is in his second and (according to the constitution at least) final term, crack down on Islamists more and take more radical steps to reform the economy as he doesnt have to bribe voters anymore with subsidies.

[jaichind]

It seems Gerinda is pulling ahead of Golkar (the party of Suharto) for second place in the parliamentary vote.  PDI-P is well ahead.

[sopojarwo]

It would be better to ignore exit polls as their sampling only uses 1,500-1,800 polling stations out of ~800.000 polling stations. And for parliamentary elections, some polling stations just about to start counting the ballot and it's a long process because there are 4 different ballots and election officers have to validate and allocate various ways of punching the ballots (for political parties only/for candidates only/for both/etc)

[jaichind]

It would be better to ignore exit polls as their sampling only uses 1,500-1,800 polling stations out of ~800.000 polling stations. And for parliamentary elections, some polling stations just about to start counting the ballot and it's a long process because there are 4 different ballots and election officers have to validate and allocate various ways of punching the ballots (for political parties only/for candidates only/for both/etc)

A random sample of representative polling stations to form the quick count can be very predictive.  They did it in Singapore in 2015 and for each constituency the quick count was within 1% of the final result.  Of course the key words here are "random" and "representative"   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Early reported results show the same general pattern. Although the headline figures look the same as last time, there have been (it appears? But it is early) some significant shifts in places. Anyway, once it's all done (which will be a while!) there will be maps, of course.

[Lachi]

Also in 2014, the quick count was pretty close to being correct, having Widodo at ~52.5%. it actually underestimated Widodo's final result, as he won 53.1%

[sopojarwo]

Yeah, i think Prabowo should concede or at the very least stop throwing wild accusation of fraud. His East and Central Java's early results came out horribly although he gains some grounds on another province such as South Sulawesi

[urutzizu]

What should be very interesting is seeing how different regions voted, especially ones that are religiously different, since this election was far more religiously polarizing then 2014 (or any before that, for that matter.

Whether Prabowos attempts at wooing religious conservatives worked should be visable if he, as expected, wins blowouts in the Sharia-enforcing Region of Aceh and in conservative West Java (despite the Governor being a Jokowi ally)

And Whether Prabowo scared away Christians, Hindus and moderate Muslims should be visable if Jokowi wins Landslides in Christian Papua and West Papua, west Timur and Hindu Bali as well as Jakarta, where there was huge Controversy about the alleged Blasphemy of the Christian Governor.

Sopojarwo, do you know where to see regional results?

[sopojarwo]

Regional results should be here pemilu2019.kpu.go.id or kawalpemilu.org for next few hours or days

[urutzizu]

Thank you.

Mostly in line with expectations, except for West Papua. Maybe the (preliminary) results there have something to do with anger at Jokowi because of the Insurgency. Or possibly Prabowos Christian family was reassuring for some Christians that Prabowos was tolerant after all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thank you.

Mostly in line with expectations, except for West Papua. Maybe the (preliminary) results there have something to do with anger at Jokowi because of the Insurgency. Or possibly Prabowos Christian family was reassuring for some Christians that Prabowos was tolerant after all.

Most of the results in from West Papua so far (and it's super early o/c) are from settler areas, where Prabo is polling very strongly this time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, it is very early (of course), but the general pattern of a further intensification of communal, sectarian and ethnic polarisation seems clear enough...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Counting is nearly all done now - the exceptions are mostly in New Guinea. Anyway. There's enough done that I decided to make the map.