Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

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Durham is also a potential NDP target.

With the NDP at 35% you could also add Mississauga Malton and Brampton Centre (and maybe even North) to the potential list.

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The Liberals in 2nd could be terrible news for the NDP.

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Green: 83%
NDP: 77%
Liberal: 66%
Conservative: 33%

If I lived in Elizabeth May's riding, I'd probably vote for her. Otherwise, I wouldn't really consider the Green Party. In most ridings, I'd vote NDP, except for seats where the contest is between the Liberals and Conservatives and no one else has a chance (in which case I'd vote Liberal).

This was my original plan.  I recently moved to Etobicoke - Lakeshore, and was thinking of voting Liberal, but it's now a three way race across Ontario so I'll stick with the NDP.  I mean, sure if you live in Vaughan, voting NDP may not be the best decision, but most places all three parties are competitive, especially if the NDP is at 40% nationally.

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Anybody been checking Threehundredeight lately?   Parkdale-High Park going Liberal?  Yeah, not going to happen Eric.  That Trudeau hard on this guy has, though.

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Will Mulcair resign if the NDP finishes third? And if he does, who'll replace him?

If they manage to get anything under what they got at the last election (103 I think it was), then yes, he'd have to.  They really need to find someone a little more charismatic.  Had Jack been around, this would have surely been an NDP sweep.  I think Mulcair's move of the party to the centre, and his lack of charisma is what helped with the demise.  Everything seems calculated, whereas with Jack, everything was for the good of the people.  I have a hard time thinking of someone who has the charisma to bring the party to win. Someone who is a little less offensive, like Dewar or Nash, could make good options.  If they really want to go after the Youth-Vote, trying to get someone a little younger could help too.


With the NDP at 18% in Ontario, does anything think Bruce Hyer has a chance in Thunder Bay-Superior North?  May has visited the area several times, and it's always been standing room only.

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Riding projections are garbage. They are fine for estimate the total number of seats each party will win, but at the individual riding level, you might as well play a game of pin the tail on the donkey and you'd have as good a chance of predicting who will win what seat.

As long as we are talking hypotheticals, I would agree that if Mulcair lost his own seat, he would resign. But I think that would be his own decision, no one would be pushing him...for all the reasons I gave above - there is no obvious successor and there has never been any organized faction that is ojt to get him. This is Canada not Australia!

The labour-left isn't quite thrilled with Mulcair.  He isn't seeing the support Horwath saw in blue-collar Ontario, nor is he capturing left-wing progressive urban Toronto either.  Layton, somehow, was able to get both, and I think that's what the NDP will need after this election.

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Re Mulcair in his own seat: remember, too, that he had a much higher-profile Liberal opponent in 2011 (ex-MP Martin Cauchon).  Consider that as a projection-model stats-skewer.

And re "charismatic" successors to Mulcair: language barrier or not, that's why I've repeatedly offered Charlie Angus as a prospect.

Choosing a leader who speaks no French is 100% out of the question. Period. GONG!!! This is a bilingual country and any party that picks a unilingual leader is basically telling Canadians that they are not serious contenders. Can you imagine any federal party having a leader who could not take part in a leaders debate in French? It would make the party an object of ridicule. To even suggest the possibility of a unilingual leader for any of the big three federal parties is absurd.

In any case, while I think Charlie angus is a good MP, I don't even find him particularly "charismatic" he's just OK. One NDP MP who IS charismatic and who speaks excellent French and who made a strong showing in the 2012 contest is Nathan Cullen from BC...to me if Mulcair stepped aside he would be an obvious replacement

I think Cullen comes off as too contrived and forced, and he'd have a hard time with Quebec.  Finding another Jack is going to be tough, but if they want to get back into a position where they can win, they should begin that search.  Someone softer, that, like the news outlets always like to point out, you'd like to have a drink with.  I don't think blue-collar labour could see themselves having a beer with Cullen, they way they could with Jack.   I'm not sure if someone with the kind of appeal, and balance, that we had with Jack will ever be found, but I don't think Mulcair is the guy.

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Looks like the NDP vote may be efficient, given the low % number.  If they can manage to win the competitive races in the old city of Toronto, southwestern and Northern ontario, and get 5% everywhere else in the province (905, central, rural-east), they may not see the significant blow are expecting.

Also, some polls for some Northern Ontario ridings, still strong for the NDP.

http://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=726178

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I guess that makes Coyne an Ignatieff-Hudak-Mulcair voter. What an odd combination. Although he's voting NDP only to prevent a majority.

I don't know what's funny about the territories. I think the Liberals will sweep all three of them, that's what both my model and 308 is showing atm.

I've spoken with 2 people in my riding (Etobicoke-Lakeshore) who are far-left guys, who have both said they would be voting Conservative for this same reason.  People on all sides are trying to avoid a Liberal majority.