Does anybody know how Arizona & Texas is doing with early voting? I'd assume it has a good turnout for the GOP in both states.
In the 15 counties with the most registered voters, early voting turnout is down 4.7%.
Harris +3.2%
Dallas -12.9%
Tarrant -10.3%
Bexar -7.3%
Travis -21.2%
Collin +0.9%
El Paso -15.0%
Denton -2.3%
Fort Bend +3.1%
Hidalgo +17.7%
Montgomery +17.6%
Williamson -7.0%
Nueces -9.8%
Galveston +8.6%
Cameron +7.4%
Given population growth, it could be even more of a drop off. In 2008, There was an +8% Obama differential in early voting in Travis, +10% in Dallas, +9% in Harris.
There are a lot of differences between counties in the share of the vote that is early or not. In 2000, Harris was at 25%, while most counties were around 40%. By 2004, Harris was at 41%, but other counties were going past 50%. In 2008, Harris County hit 62%, but other counties were close to 70%. So while it was up slightly in Harris County, it was probably still catching up with other counties (early voting between 2004 and 2008 was up 65%, so a 3% increase from 2008 to 2012 was just consolidating the gain).
Total turnout in Galveston was down from 2004 to 2008 because of Ike, so the increase this year was related to total turnout. Many of the other counties with increases were under 70% early voting in 2008, so they were probably catching up. Around 75% may be saturation.
As more persons early vote, there are fewer voting on election day - and I suspect they aren't at the point where they are pulling workers and machines out of polling places. In my case, it is easier to get to the early voting location than my regular polling place, and I have the convenience of picking when I vote. But the next closest early voting locations are about 3 times as far - far enough to think of it like being a trip to the doctor or dentist, but not something you would do just because you were in the car. And early voting might not be convenient from work, or it might be not be an area the voter is familiar with. A person who is familiar with an area say 3 miles around their home, might not be so familiar around their work location. If they read of the early voting location near their home, they'd say, "Oh I know where that is, it's across the street from the grocery store". A location just as near work might draw a blank stare.
Early voting in Harris County was up 18.2% the first week, 8.9% on the weekend, and down -7.3% on the second week. First week (Monday through Friday) voting hours are 8-4:30; the weekend was 7-7 on Saturday and 1-6 on Sunday; and the second week 7-7.
In 2008, hourly voting rates were: 1st week 6120, weekend 6033, and 2nd week 5626.
In 2012, hourly voting rates were: 1st week 5178, weekend 5542, and 2nd week 6068.
So there was more balancing of voters, so some may have learned that the lines were shorter the first week. But it could also indicate a shift toward the Republicans, who are more likely to be able to vote during working hours. I found the votes cast per early voting location in 2012, but haven't been able to locate any 2008 numbers.
