The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[J. J.]

ME is now showing gains of R percentages over 2008:

2008

Dem
   41.1%
Rep
   27.7%
No/Oth
   31.2%

2012

Party Reg    
Dem    40.2%
Rep    29.1%
Green    2.7%
None    28.0%

This is noteworthy only because it one of the few states where this wasn't happening. 

[J. J.]

IA 2008 final:

Party 
Dem 46.9%
Rep 28.9%
No/Oth 24.2%

IA Today:

Dem 42.3%
Rep 32.1%
None/Oth 25.6%

I think D's might have dropped 0.1 points.

There was speculation about a massive D surge at the end, but, so far, there have been slight gains or holds by the R's.

It does not include satellite sites, from what I can tell.   

[Cliffy]

Believe Bush was down 7% in 04 EV and lost independents.  It would appear Romney will win independents, feel real good about this one.

IA 2008 final:

Party 
Dem 46.9%
Rep 28.9%
No/Oth 24.2%

IA Today:

Dem 42.3%
Rep 32.1%
None/Oth 25.6%

I think D's might have dropped 0.1 points.

There was speculation about a massive D surge at the end, but, so far, there have been slight gains or holds by the R's.

It does not include satellite sites, from what I can tell.   

[krazen1211]

Final NC EV numbers:

2012

D: 1305875 (47.7%)
R: 861132 (31.4%)
I: 565836 (20.7%)

W: 1844103 (67.3%)
B: 751344 (27.4%)
O: 143500 (5.2%)

Average age: 52


2008

D: 1355390 (51.4%)
R: 795456 (30.1%)
I: 486256 (18.4%)

W: 1823420 (69.1%)
B: 701896 (26.7%)
O: 113599 (4.3%)

Average age: 50




Not too bad for Mr. Romney. Thankfully, hellish places like Chapel Hill are casting less votes this time!

[Brittain33]

Final NC EV numbers:

2012

W: 1844103 (67.3%)
B: 751344 (27.4%)
O: 143500 (5.2%)

2008

W: 1823420 (69.1%)
B: 701896 (26.7%)
O: 113599 (4.3%)

It's interesting that whites are up about 20,000, black + other is up 80,000. I don't expect Obama to win but I am really interested to see by what number he loses.

[krazen1211]

Colorado:

About 70% of the vote is in.


R: 624788 (36.6%)
D: 590417 (34.6%)
I: 474437 (27.8%)




Good numbers for Mr. Romney. On top of that, there is a large reservoir of registered Republican voters in Douglas and El Paso Counties ready to soar to the polls tomorrow.

[Lief 🗽]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Holmes]

Just R+2 in Colorado? Not bad. Guess the Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in Denver, Boulder, Adams, Arapahoe and Jefferson counties will soar to the polls and assure Obama a glorious victory!

[Lief 🗽]

Isn't +2 worse than the Republicans did in the 2010 early vote? A year in which they lost the governor and senate races?

[Skill and Chance]

Isn't +2 worse than the Republicans did in the 2010 early vote? A year in which they lost the governor and senate races?

Yes.  2010 was R+6 in the early vote.  Republicans did pick up some statewide offices and flip a chamber of the state legislature, though.  So from the data we have, D+6 early vote = 9-10 point D win statewide, R+6 early vote = effective tie statewide.  If this was the only information we had, I would go with Obama +3-4 statewide with an R+2 early vote.  Johnson is probably taking some Obama votes here, though.

[Speed of Sound]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Assuring news from a state that would make a good back-up to a bad surprise somewhere.

[Dan the Roman]

Near final Cuyathoga numbers.

2012: 249,403
2008(on Tuesday, not total processed): 252,629

Franklin Numbers

2012: 222,068
2008:207,243

[Skill and Chance]

Near final Cuyathoga numbers.

2012: 249,403
2008(on Tuesday, not total processed): 252,629

Franklin Numbers

2012: 222,068
2008:207,243

Interesting.  So EV turnout is statistically equal to 2008 after all.

[J. J.]

It's interesting that whites are up about 20,000, black + other is up 80,000. I don't expect Obama to win but I am really interested to see by what number he loses.

I posted it earlier:

In 2008, 51.6% of the black electorate had voted.

In 2012, 50.3% of the black electorate had voted.

Note that black registration has changed:

2008:  21.6%

2012:  22.4%

Note that black percentage of the electorate has increased by 0.7 points. 

[Badger]

It's interesting that whites are up about 20,000, black + other is up 80,000. I don't expect Obama to win but I am really interested to see by what number he loses.

I posted it earlier:

In 2008, 51.6% of the black electorate had voted.

In 2012, 50.3% of the black electorate had voted.

Note that black registration has changed:

2008:  21.6%

2012:  22.4%

Note that black percentage of the electorate has increased by 0.7 points. 

That is an utterly meaningless statistic, JJ. In terms of both % of early voters and raw numbers of EV, non-white voter share is up.

[J. J.]

That is an utterly meaningless statistic, JJ. In terms of both % of early voters and raw numbers of EV, non-white voter share is up.

As I, and others, have noted repeatedly on this thread.  I did want to note, however, that this was do to increased registration, and that the % of Black turnout has dropped. 

[Badger]

That is an utterly meaningless statistic, JJ. In terms of both % of early voters and raw numbers of EV, non-white voter share is up.

As I, and others, have noted repeatedly on this thread.  I did want to note, however, that this was do to increased registration, and that the % of Black turnout has dropped. 

Your posting an utterly meaningless statistic is duly noted.

The non-white share of EV is up from 2008. Probably not enough for Obama to carry NC, but that is still the relevent statistic here.

[J. J.]

That is an utterly meaningless statistic, JJ. In terms of both % of early voters and raw numbers of EV, non-white voter share is up.

As I, and others, have noted repeatedly on this thread.  I did want to note, however, that this was do to increased registration, and that the % of Black turnout has dropped. 

Your posting an utterly meaningless statistic is duly noted.

The non-white share of EV is up from 2008. Probably not enough for Obama to carry NC, but that is still the relevent statistic here.

Not really.  Registration increased; turnout increased at a lower rate. 

[J. J.]

McDonald made a very good point here:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/democrats-leaving-mail-ba_b_2069037.html

McDonald had talked about the returned ballots and expected a D increase at the end.  I think he makes a valid point:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That is the point I have been making about IA. 

[jimrtex]

Does anybody know how Arizona & Texas is doing with early voting?  I'd assume it has a good turnout for the GOP in both states.

In the 15 counties with the most registered voters, early voting turnout is down 4.7%.

Harris +3.2%
Dallas -12.9%
Tarrant -10.3%
Bexar -7.3%
Travis -21.2%
Collin +0.9%
El Paso -15.0%
Denton -2.3%
Fort Bend +3.1%
Hidalgo +17.7%
Montgomery +17.6%
Williamson -7.0%
Nueces -9.8%
Galveston +8.6%
Cameron +7.4%

Given population growth, it could be even more of a drop off.  In 2008, There was an +8% Obama differential in early voting in Travis, +10% in Dallas, +9% in Harris.  

There are a lot of differences between counties in the share of the vote that is early or not.  In 2000, Harris was at 25%, while most counties were around 40%.  By 2004, Harris was at 41%, but other counties were going past 50%.  In 2008, Harris County hit 62%, but other counties were close to 70%.  So while it was up slightly in Harris County, it was probably still catching up with other counties (early voting between 2004 and 2008 was up 65%, so a 3% increase from 2008 to 2012 was just consolidating the gain).

Total turnout in Galveston was down from 2004 to 2008 because of Ike, so the increase this year was related to total turnout.  Many of the other counties with increases were under 70% early voting in 2008, so they were probably catching up.   Around 75% may be saturation.

As more persons early vote, there are fewer voting on election day - and I suspect they aren't at the point where they are pulling workers and machines out of polling places.   In my case, it is easier to get to the early voting location than my regular polling place, and I have the convenience of picking when I vote.  But the next closest early voting locations are about 3 times as far - far enough to think of it like being a trip to the doctor or dentist, but not something you would do just because you were in the car.  And early voting might not be convenient from work, or it might be not be an area the voter is familiar with.  A person who is familiar with an area say 3 miles around their home, might not be so familiar around their work location.  If they read of the early voting location near their home, they'd say, "Oh I know where that is, it's across the street from the grocery store".  A location just as near work might draw a blank stare.

Early voting in Harris County was up 18.2% the first week, 8.9% on the weekend, and down -7.3% on the second week.  First week (Monday through Friday) voting hours are 8-4:30; the weekend was 7-7 on Saturday and 1-6 on Sunday; and the second week 7-7.

In 2008, hourly voting rates were: 1st week 6120, weekend 6033, and 2nd week 5626.
In 2012, hourly voting rates were: 1st week 5178, weekend 5542, and 2nd week 6068.

So there was more balancing of voters, so some may have learned that the lines were shorter the first week.  But it could also indicate a shift toward the Republicans, who are more likely to be able to vote during working hours.  I found the votes cast per early voting location in 2012, but haven't been able to locate any 2008 numbers.

[Brittain33]

Sorry for the confusion J.J., I meant by what number he loses the state in the real election. These data don't really show anything for that.

It's interesting that whites are up about 20,000, black + other is up 80,000. I don't expect Obama to win but I am really interested to see by what number he loses.

I posted it earlier:

In 2008, 51.6% of the black electorate had voted.

In 2012, 50.3% of the black electorate had voted.

Note that black registration has changed:

2008:  21.6%

2012:  22.4%

Note that black percentage of the electorate has increased by 0.7 points. 

[J. J.]

Sorry for the confusion J.J., I meant by what number he loses the state in the real election. These data don't really show anything for that.

I think it does tell us something.  The group that is sitting out this election is primarily white Democrats, at least in NC. 

[Adam Griffin]

[quote]Early voting in Georgia concluded on Friday. The most surprising number: Without an overt campaign in this state on behalf of President Barack Obama, African-American turnout for early voting matched the 2008 rate, at 34 percent of all advanced ballots cast./quote]

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/11/05/black-voters-cast-more-than-one-third-of-1-9-million-early-georgia-ballots/

2008 Early Vote:

White: 60.4%
Black: 34.9%
Other: 4.7%

2012 Early Vote:

White: 59.0%
Black: 33.7%
Other: 7.3%

[Minnesota Mike]

Nearly Final Iowa Early Votes.

Total: 673,124

Dem: 281,966 (41.9%)
Rep: 215,439 (32.0%)
Other: 175,719(26.1%)

I believe more absentees could come in today. Good numbers for the president IMHO. Of course the margins will narrow but it will be tough for republicans to make up a 66,000+ vote deficit.

[J. J.]

Nearly Final Iowa Early Votes.

Total: 673,124

Dem: 281,966 (41.9%)
Rep: 215,439 (32.0%)
Other: 175,719(26.1%)

I believe more absentees could come in today. Good numbers for the president IMHO. Of course the margins will narrow but it will be tough for republicans to make up a 66,000+ vote deficit.

Really bad numbers for Obama.  His early voting numbers have been cut by 8.1 points from 2008, and the trend is continuing to show a drop.  The Democrats were expected to surge.  They have not.