The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Seriously?]

Ohio Democrats who voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 530,813
Change from 2008: -181,275

Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 448,357
Change from 2008: +75,858

Republican swing from 2008: 257,133
Obama's 2008 margin of victory: 262,224

Come on dude, I explained this a few pages ago. Those numbers are meaningless.

I wouldn't call those numbers "meaningless," just not as meaningful as other states due to the primary system in Ohio.

With that said, the true comparison to measure enthusiasm in Ohio would be to compare counties. Right now, Cuyahoga (Cleveland) is lagging from '08. That's the D's main stronghold.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Just voted in CA.

Since nobody's vote in the presidential election matters in this state, here's what I did vote for re: the propositions:

Prop 30: Yes
Prop 31: No
Prop 32: No
Prop 33: No
Prop 34: Yes
Prop 35: Yes
Prop 36: Yes
Prop 37: Yes
Prop 38: No
Prop 39: Yes
Prop 40: Yes

[Lief 🗽]

I wish New York had cool propositions to vote on!

[Lief 🗽]

Dems up to a 55k lead in Clark County after today. With two days of early voting left, they should break 60k.

[Seriously?]

Dems up to a 55k lead in Clark County after today. With two days of early voting left, they should break 60k.

What's the magic number in your mind for Obama to pull off a victory in Nevada on Election Day?

[Ljube]

Clark County Day 12

D: 13083
R: 8924
I: 6017

Total: 28024

[Ljube]

Total in Nevada including all counties and all votes (early and absentee):

D: 235514
R: 200678
I: 96872

10/31/2012 data not included.

[Holmes]

Dems up to a 55k lead in Clark County after today. With two days of early voting left, they should break 60k.

What's the magic number in your mind for Obama to pull off a victory in Nevada on Election Day?

With this number and Reid's turnout machine coming out to play, I think Obama's got this state in the bag.

[Seriously?]

Dems up to a 55k lead in Clark County after today. With two days of early voting left, they should break 60k.

What's the magic number in your mind for Obama to pull off a victory in Nevada on Election Day?

With this number and Reid's turnout machine coming out to play, I think Obama's got this state in the bag.

My calculations have the Democrat margin somewhere between 25,000 and 35,000 votes through 10/30 (depending on how you apportion the independents). Is that an insurmountable number for the Republicans to overcome historically on Election Day?

[krazen1211]

These next few days are when the early vote for the under 40 crowd surged in 2008.


Pollsters of course claim that obama is winning the EV in 2012 by identical margins to 2008. Bull!

NC early vote still moves heavily old and Republican! Half the vote is in.


D: 996299 (48.3%)
R: 654125 (31.8%)
I: 407651 (19.8%)

W: 1389593 (67.4%)
B: 572984 (27.8%)
O: 99619 (4.8%)

Oct 29, 2008:

D: 1006355 (53.2%)
R: 551056 (29.1%)
I: 332506 (17.6%)

W: 1299945 (68.7%)
B: 515112 (27.2%)
O: 75940 (4.0%)





This must be this ground game big talk. Less Democrats are voting and Romney is creating more and more new Republican whites. People over 45 make up 70% of the vote. Huzzah!

[Cliffy]

Nevada is more in play than I expected, going to come down to independents.

Dems up to a 55k lead in Clark County after today. With two days of early voting left, they should break 60k.

What's the magic number in your mind for Obama to pull off a victory in Nevada on Election Day?

With this number and Reid's turnout machine coming out to play, I think Obama's got this state in the bag.

My calculations have the Democrat margin somewhere between 25,000 and 35,000 votes through 10/30 (depending on how you apportion the independents). Is that an insurmountable number for the Republicans to overcome historically on Election Day?

[J. J.]

Iowa yesterday: 

Dem    43.7%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.1%

Iowa today:

   
Dem    43.3%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.4%
   

The final gap in 2008 was 18 points.  It is now 11.1.


There is another factor, not reported.  They are permitting 100 people to gather together and request am early voting polling station.  This is expected to help Romney.  We don't know how much.

The gap has been shrinking so far. 

[Lief 🗽]

Iowa early vote turnout has now surpassed 2008's early vote turnout.

[Speed of Sound]

Iowa early vote turnout has now surpassed 2008's early vote turnout.

What do you think of the change in Dem proportions in the state, then? The polls certainly seem to bode well for Obama, but the swing in finalg gap isn't wondrous. Enough to hold, do you suppose, considering that Obama won by 9 in '08?

[J. J.]

Iowa early vote turnout has now surpassed 2008's early vote turnout.

What do you think of the change in Dem proportions in the state, then? The polls certainly seem to bode well for Obama, but the swing in finalg gap isn't wondrous. Enough to hold, do you suppose, considering that Obama won by 9 in '08?

He won the early vote by 18, so a lot of McCain's vote was on election day. 

[krazen1211]

looking good in FL



http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/democrats-face-early-vote-hurdle-fla

Still looking good.


D: 1296808 (42.5%)
R: 1238152 (40.6%)
I: 517000 (16.9%)

[Lief 🗽]

Iowa early vote turnout has now surpassed 2008's early vote turnout.

What do you think of the change in Dem proportions in the state, then? The polls certainly seem to bode well for Obama, but the swing in finalg gap isn't wondrous. Enough to hold, do you suppose, considering that Obama won by 9 in '08?

Well in 2008 the Republican campaign didn't focus on early voting at all. It makes sense that now that they do, at least to an extent, some of their election day voters are moving to early vote and thus the Democratic margin is shrinking. But if Democrats can get their margin up to 70,000 by the end of early voting in Iowa (5 more days), then I think we're in a good position.

[J. J.]

Iowa early vote turnout has now surpassed 2008's early vote turnout.

What do you think of the change in Dem proportions in the state, then? The polls certainly seem to bode well for Obama, but the swing in finalg gap isn't wondrous. Enough to hold, do you suppose, considering that Obama won by 9 in '08?

Well in 2008 the Republican campaign didn't focus on early voting at all. It makes sense that now that they do, at least to an extent, some of their election day voters are moving to early vote and thus the Democratic margin is shrinking. But if Democrats can get their margin up to 70,000 by the end of early voting in Iowa (5 more days), then I think we're in a good position.

So far, the D numbers are dropping on a daily basis in IA. 

[Lief 🗽]

Iowa early vote turnout has now surpassed 2008's early vote turnout.

What do you think of the change in Dem proportions in the state, then? The polls certainly seem to bode well for Obama, but the swing in finalg gap isn't wondrous. Enough to hold, do you suppose, considering that Obama won by 9 in '08?

Well in 2008 the Republican campaign didn't focus on early voting at all. It makes sense that now that they do, at least to an extent, some of their election day voters are moving to early vote and thus the Democratic margin is shrinking. But if Democrats can get their margin up to 70,000 by the end of early voting in Iowa (5 more days), then I think we're in a good position.

So far, the D numbers are dropping on a daily basis in IA. 

No, the D raw vote margin has been increasing basically every day. It's now at about +62,000.

[krazen1211]

R: 439269 (38.2%)
D: 404870 (35.2%)
I: 295112 (25.6%)

Colorado:

R: 493457 (37.8%)
D: 457337 (35.0%)
I: 341920 (26.2%)


Lovely.

[J. J.]

Iowa early vote turnout has now surpassed 2008's early vote turnout.

What do you think of the change in Dem proportions in the state, then? The polls certainly seem to bode well for Obama, but the swing in finalg gap isn't wondrous. Enough to hold, do you suppose, considering that Obama won by 9 in '08?

Well in 2008 the Republican campaign didn't focus on early voting at all. It makes sense that now that they do, at least to an extent, some of their election day voters are moving to early vote and thus the Democratic margin is shrinking. But if Democrats can get their margin up to 70,000 by the end of early voting in Iowa (5 more days), then I think we're in a good position.

So far, the D numbers are dropping on a daily basis in IA. 

No, the D raw vote margin has been increasing basically every day. It's now at about +62,000.

Iowa yesterday:

Dem    43.7%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.1%

Iowa today:

   
Dem    43.3%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.4%

I think it has been doing that all week. 

[Lief 🗽]

Are you not reading my posts or what?

[Vosem]

Iowa early vote turnout has now surpassed 2008's early vote turnout.

What do you think of the change in Dem proportions in the state, then? The polls certainly seem to bode well for Obama, but the swing in finalg gap isn't wondrous. Enough to hold, do you suppose, considering that Obama won by 9 in '08?

He won the early vote by 18, so a lot of McCain's vote was on election day. 

Indeed, McCain won Iowa on E-Day, but Obama's EaV (EaV = early vote, as opposed to ElV = electoral vote) margin was strong enough to overwhelm McCain's E-Day voters.

Iowa early vote turnout has now surpassed 2008's early vote turnout.

What do you think of the change in Dem proportions in the state, then? The polls certainly seem to bode well for Obama, but the swing in finalg gap isn't wondrous. Enough to hold, do you suppose, considering that Obama won by 9 in '08?

Well in 2008 the Republican campaign didn't focus on early voting at all. It makes sense that now that they do, at least to an extent, some of their election day voters are moving to early vote and thus the Democratic margin is shrinking. But if Democrats can get their margin up to 70,000 by the end of early voting in Iowa (5 more days), then I think we're in a good position.

So far, the D numbers are dropping on a daily basis in IA.  

No, the D raw vote margin has been increasing basically every day. It's now at about +62,000.

Which seems to translate into a narrow victory for Romney (though I'll admit an Obama win isn't out of the question). Keith Backer says between 60K and 120K is a tossup; that's overly optimistic (certainly, if Obama's past 90K he's got this state in the bag, I think), but I'm pretty sure the cutoff is more like 80K, not 70K. Certainly, Lief, I think you can agree at 62K Romney's more likely to win IA than Obama.

[Lief 🗽]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

[Vosem]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

Out of curiosity, why do you think the Democrats will build on their 62K? I recall it was 58K like a week ago; but that swing doesn't seem to me to be large enough to indicate some sort of sudden last-minute surge in Democratic EaV support. Or is it?