The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Seriously?]

Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

Less than 50 K, but I'd still give the advantage to Obama. 

What's your final prediction? Mine is Obama +4.

Back of the envelope math using SUSA as a guide suggests about at 12,000 lead for Obama in the early vote. Romney would have to go somewhere between +4 and +5 with the remaining absentees and early votes to eke out a win there. Guess is Obama takes it, but more like by +2 or +3.

[Cliffy]

Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

Less than 50 K, but I'd still give the advantage to Obama. 

Better than I expected, however what's the number Obama was up last time on EV?  I figured it will be within 2, may get lucky but Nevada is the one place Republicans may be cannibalizing their early vote.

[J. J.]

Interesting, but unlikely to be true in reality.

Currently, with one day of Early voting left, and with over 50% of the vote in

46% of Registered African Americans
36% of Registered Whites
30% Others

Have voted. African American turnout % should be pretty close to the white one if not exceeding it.

Well the figures were hypothetical.  The percentage of the black electorate, while still strong, has dropped a bit from 2008.  That might play into modeling a bit. 

[J. J.]

Yep, those 2008 election day McCain voters are really getting out the early vote this year.

My guess is that these are not the McCain voters and that Obama will do worse in IA on election day than he did 2008. 

[J. J.]

Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

Less than 50 K, but I'd still give the advantage to Obama. 

Better than I expected, however what's the number Obama was up last time on EV?  I figured it will be within 2, may get lucky but Nevada is the one place Republicans may be cannibalizing their early vote.

I'd guess about 2.

[Lief 🗽]

@PeterHambyCNN: Dems in Ohio blowing up early vote today in blue counties like Cuyahoga, Lucas, Franklin. Some GOP anxiety about it.

[Yank2133]

@PeterHambyCNN: Dems in Ohio blowing up early vote today in blue counties like Cuyahoga, Lucas, Franklin. Some GOP anxiety about it.

Well.......

[Cliffy]

Not in Cuyahoga for in house early voting, lol.  They lost another 1000 compared to the same day in 08. 

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

GMU site shows overall Cuyahoga down 9% and Franklin down 16% since 08..

You guys know Hamilton is going GOP right, so don't get excited that it's going to hit it's 08 numbers or exceed

[Cliffy]

If true, the wave is coming I will say I've been in Chicago a lot the last month and I've been telling you guys I have seen virtually zero visible support for Obama.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/massive-decrease-early-and-absentee-voting-chicago_660299.html

[Dan the Roman]

Not in Cuyahoga for in house early voting, lol.  They lost another 1000 compared to the same day in 08. 

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

GMU site shows overall Cuyahoga down 9% and Franklin down 16% since 08..

You guys know Hamilton is going GOP right, so don't get excited that it's going to hit it's 08 numbers or exceed

Updating is terrible right now.

At the moment Cuyathoga is at 240K, not including early voting today. Assuming those numbers are complete, actual numbers are at 243K, 9K less than 2008, and 96% of the total for that year.

Franklin numbers are way above whats on the GMU site. Without today's inperson numbers, they are at 213K rather than the 176K reported on the GMU site.

If you are going to use the county sites, dont be a complete hack. Actually use the numbers on the county sites rather than picking and choosing numbers from different dates to try and spread bs.

[Cliffy]

Pardon me, I don't have Franklin counties link, I only have Cuyahoga and GMU so I'm not trying to be a hack.  If you've got it post it.  Cuyahoga isn't up today it's down.  Mccain counties are up big through EVing.  Maybe Franklin is up, it's going to be too little. 

[Cliffy]

Down 90k vs 08

Jamie Dupree ‏@jamiedupree
Final early vote tally in Miami-Dade County, Florida - 235,733; in 2008, the early vote there was 325,903

[Penelope]

If true, the wave is coming I will say I've been in Chicago a lot the last month and I've been telling you guys I have seen virtually zero visible support for Obama.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/massive-decrease-early-and-absentee-voting-chicago_660299.html

Why would people in Chicago visibly support Obama? Sure that's where he's from, but there's no reason for there to be visible Obama support in a state Obama is going to win with about 20%.

Are you seriously implying Romney has a chance in Illinois because there aren't huge banners with "OBAMA!" on them?

[Lief 🗽]

Down 90k vs 08

Jamie Dupree ‏@jamiedupree
Final early vote tally in Miami-Dade County, Florida - 235,733; in 2008, the early vote there was 325,903

Yeah, a lot of that has shifted to absentee. There's a reason the Republican absentee margin has been shrunk so much.

[Drew1830]

Down 90k vs 08

Jamie Dupree ‏@jamiedupree
Final early vote tally in Miami-Dade County, Florida - 235,733; in 2008, the early vote there was 325,903

You do realize that early voting hours were cut in half since 2008?

Cliffy makes heatmaster look rational and informed.

[Cliffy]

Didn't imply that at all, I've even stated before no way Romney wins IL.  Just noting support down massively.

If true, the wave is coming I will say I've been in Chicago a lot the last month and I've been telling you guys I have seen virtually zero visible support for Obama.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/massive-decrease-early-and-absentee-voting-chicago_660299.html

Why would people in Chicago visibly support Obama? Sure that's where he's from, but there's no reason for there to be visible Obama support in a state Obama is going to win with about 20%.

Are you seriously implying Romney has a chance in Illinois because there aren't huge banners with "OBAMA!" on them?

[Dan the Roman]

Pardon me, I don't have Franklin counties link, I only have Cuyahoga and GMU so I'm not trying to be a hack.  If you've got it post it.  Cuyahoga isn't up today it's down.  Mccain counties are up big through EVing.  Maybe Franklin is up, it's going to be too little. 

Sorry about that.

Cuyathoga - 240K
http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf

Franklin - 213K
http://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/absentee/absentee-district-counts.cfm

[Cliffy]

FYI,

the #s I ran earlier are correct on the overall down. I ran your #s vs the 08 #s and they came out the same.  Evidently GMU has his % of 2008 vote # updated correctly (if you calculate based on the 12' EV # he shows it's lower than the % he actually has listed)


Cuyahoga is down 9% and Franklin is down 16% vs 08.

[Dan the Roman]

FYI,

the #s I ran earlier are correct on the overall down. I ran your #s vs the 08 #s and they came out the same.  Evidently GMU has his % of 2008 vote # updated correctly (if you calculate based on the 12' EV # he shows it's lower than the % he actually has listed)


Cuyahoga is down 9% and Franklin is down 16% vs 08.

Sorry then, apparently he made the error.

[Non Swing Voter]

Pardon me, I don't have Franklin counties link, I only have Cuyahoga and GMU so I'm not trying to be a hack.  If you've got it post it.  Cuyahoga isn't up today it's down.  Mccain counties are up big through EVing.  Maybe Franklin is up, it's going to be too little. 

Sorry about that.

Cuyathoga - 240K


Franklin - 213K

I'm new here but don't those numbers only include mail ballots and not early in person votes, which mean the vote totals are actually higher for both counties?

[Dan the Roman]

Pardon me, I don't have Franklin counties link, I only have Cuyahoga and GMU so I'm not trying to be a hack.  If you've got it post it.  Cuyahoga isn't up today it's down.  Mccain counties are up big through EVing.  Maybe Franklin is up, it's going to be too little. 

Sorry about that.

Cuyathoga - 240K


Franklin - 213K

I'm new here but don't those numbers only include mail ballots and not early in person votes, which mean the vote totals are actually higher for both counties?

In Cuyathoga, its confirmed they include both. In Franklin its implied. The totals went up around 4000 today despite their being no mail. Given 2600 votes in Cuyathoga, that would seem like about the number of absentees dropped off+plus early votes.

The bigger issue is that the counties do weird things with counting absentees. Cuyathoga was at 200K on Thursday night. They seem to have used the half-day on saturday not just for the early voting, but to sort absentees that had arrived earlier. This means a lot of counties may have large backlogs of unsorted absentees.

I actually have a friend who is fairly hooked in with the Ohio GOP who says that a majority of the counties are borderline incompetent, there is no consistency of any sort, data from different periods is lumped together without any effort to keep it separate.

Take the Cuyathoga PDF. Those numbers were posted at Noon which means they don't include todays inperson numbers, but then updated after the inperson numbers, with a smaller net increase than the inperson votes cast today despite those numbers being publicly available.

All Ohio numbers should be treated as minimums, not maximums for turnout. Odds are its actually at least 5% higher than being shown online.

Also, only 55 counties are even reporting numbers to the SOS at all, which mean the State's own numbers are off.

Florida has the exact same problem.

[J. J.]

Since they have great demographics, I worked out the African American vote in NC.

In 2008, 51.6% of the black electorate had voted.

In 2012, 50.3% of the black electorate had voted.

Note that black registration has changed:

2008:  21.6%

2012:  22.4%

Note that black percentage of the electorate has increased by 0.7 points. 

[Minnesota Mike]

Iowa Early:

Total Returned: 640,248
Democrats: 270,796 (42.3%)
Republicans: 205,697 (32.1%)
Other: 163,755 (25.6%)

Democratic Margin of 65,099

33.1% of registered voters have already voted.
43.6% of registered Democrats have already voted
32.8% of registered Republicans have already voted.
23.8% of registered others have voted

Turnout is currently 41.5% of the total 2008 turnout.

I know Republicans turn out in greater numbers on election day but they have a pretty large hole to dig out of. Conventional wisdom was they had to hold Dems to under a 60,000 early vote lead and that's not happening. Advantage Democrats.

[Brittain33]

43.6% of registered Democrats have already voted
32.8% of registered Republicans have already voted.

!!!

What's the comparison to other years? That's pretty awful on the surface.

[Minnesota Mike]

Since they have great demographics, I worked out the African American vote in NC.

In 2008, 51.6% of the black electorate had voted.

In 2012, 50.3% of the black electorate had voted.

Note that black registration has changed:

2008:  21.6%

2012:  22.4%

To nitpick a bit the last update has the Black turnout up to 50.5%

http://ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

Total African American turnout is up 50,000 compared to the same time in 2008.