The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[krazen1211]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

Out of curiosity, why do you think the Democrats will build on their 62K? I recall it was 58K like a week ago; but that swing doesn't seem to me to be large enough to indicate some sort of sudden last-minute surge in Democratic EaV support. Or is it?

Ballots have to be postmarked by Monday.

[Lief 🗽]

Well Democrats have been steadily building on their support since early voting began. I assume the heaviest early voting is at the end, so the number of daily voters should increase in the final days.

[Ljube]

Democrats have 80000 requests more.

[Vosem]

Well Democrats have been steadily building on their support since early voting began. I assume the heaviest early voting is at the end, so the number of daily voters should increase in the final days.

Even if the swing from the last week is doubled over the next 4 days (or 5 if J.J. is wrong, doesn't really matter), you only hit 70K, which still, I think, translates to Romney being mildly favored. But most of my reading on Iowa EaV has been from rather right-wing sources, so I could be wrong.

60K, I think, is the Romney cutoff; if Obama's held below that, Romney's victory in IA is essentially certain.

[Dan the Roman]

Iowa early vote turnout has now surpassed 2008's early vote turnout.

What do you think of the change in Dem proportions in the state, then? The polls certainly seem to bode well for Obama, but the swing in finalg gap isn't wondrous. Enough to hold, do you suppose, considering that Obama won by 9 in '08?

He won the early vote by 18, so a lot of McCain's vote was on election day. 

Indeed, McCain won Iowa on E-Day, but Obama's EaV (EaV = early vote, as opposed to ElV = electoral vote) margin was strong enough to overwhelm McCain's E-Day voters.

Iowa early vote turnout has now surpassed 2008's early vote turnout.

What do you think of the change in Dem proportions in the state, then? The polls certainly seem to bode well for Obama, but the swing in finalg gap isn't wondrous. Enough to hold, do you suppose, considering that Obama won by 9 in '08?

Well in 2008 the Republican campaign didn't focus on early voting at all. It makes sense that now that they do, at least to an extent, some of their election day voters are moving to early vote and thus the Democratic margin is shrinking. But if Democrats can get their margin up to 70,000 by the end of early voting in Iowa (5 more days), then I think we're in a good position.

So far, the D numbers are dropping on a daily basis in IA.  

No, the D raw vote margin has been increasing basically every day. It's now at about +62,000.

Which seems to translate into a narrow victory for Romney (though I'll admit an Obama win isn't out of the question). Keith Backer says between 60K and 120K is a tossup; that's overly optimistic (certainly, if Obama's past 90K he's got this state in the bag, I think), but I'm pretty sure the cutoff is more like 80K, not 70K. Certainly, Lief, I think you can agree at 62K Romney's more likely to win IA than Obama.

Keith Backer fails Algebra 2.

Democrats won by 96K in 2008 with a turnout of 481K Early, meaning there was more of the vote to be won on election day, and Obama won in the end by 9. Democrats currently lead by 62,000 with a turnout of 557K, and with that increasing 30K a day. If Democrats lead by 67K with a turnout of 660K, Romney has to win on election day by much more than McCain because there is a much smaller slice of the electorate.

Let's  assume the election was tomorrow and that the electorate has grown by 5% since 2008(odd since it did not grow 2004 to 2008).

Obama wins 91/8/45 among early voters. This is quite good for Romney since evidence is indies voting early are being turnout out by the Obama campaign.

Obama gets a lead of

314K
243K

Or about 61,000 votes. Total turnout on election day would be 1063. Romney would have to win 53-47.

Now lets assume the final numbers are the requests which are 291K D, 208K R, 175K I.

We get

Obama 360K
Romney 275K

Problem is, election day turnout is now only 945K. Romney now needs to win by 8, 54-46, on election day to break even.

This whole thing assumes a ten point Romney win among independents who vote early. If we assume they even break even then we get

369K Obama
265K Romney

And Romney needs to win election day by close to 12, 56-44.

So even if the absolute margin stays the same, higher turnout raises the election-day threshold.

[Dan the Roman]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

Out of curiosity, why do you think the Democrats will build on their 62K? I recall it was 58K like a week ago; but that swing doesn't seem to me to be large enough to indicate some sort of sudden last-minute surge in Democratic EaV support. Or is it?

Ballots have to be postmarked by Monday.

Its been increasing from between 600 and 1200 every day for two weeks. Minimum is probably around 65K(for Tuesday, not counting late arriving absentees).

[Vosem]

Considering the heavy dissonance between EaV and E-Day in Iowa in 2008 (if I remember correctly, EaV was O+18, but E-Day was M+2) and that independents generally have been breaking to Romney, I'm not sure a high-single-digits Romney victory on E-Day is unlikely, though I'll admit your math illustrates it's likely to be necessary.

[J. J.]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

[Vosem]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

Ah, I'm sorry. What are your rules again (could you please provide me with a link)? I'd like to be able to refer to them over the next few days.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

20.6% of the state's population!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[J. J.]

20.6% of the state's population!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually, last time, it was 1,550,939 and was 59% of the electorate. 

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

20.6% of the state's population!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually, last time, it was 1,550,939 and was 59% of the electorate. 

Guess I didn't know that.  I guess it should be close to (or just under) that this time as well.

[Skill and Chance]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

The question, though, is how many of these additional early voters the R's are turning out were election day McCain voters in 2008?  It is well noted that the Romney campaign has emphasized early voting much more than McCain did.

[krazen1211]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

The question, though, is how many of these additional early voters the R's are turning out were election day McCain voters in 2008?  It is well noted that the Romney campaign has emphasized early voting much more than McCain did.

In Iowa both sides are cannibalizing their election day turnout. Turnout is very consistent in Iowa elections so we already know how many people are going to vote; it's just a matter of when.

[Skill and Chance]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

The question, though, is how many of these additional early voters the R's are turning out were election day McCain voters in 2008?  It is well noted that the Romney campaign has emphasized early voting much more than McCain did.

In Iowa both sides are cannibalizing their election day turnout. Turnout is very consistent in Iowa elections so we already know how many people are going to vote; it's just a matter of when.

Precisely my point.  That leaves fewer Republicans and more Democrats in the pool on election day than in 2008.

[krazen1211]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

The question, though, is how many of these additional early voters the R's are turning out were election day McCain voters in 2008?  It is well noted that the Romney campaign has emphasized early voting much more than McCain did.

In Iowa both sides are cannibalizing their election day turnout. Turnout is very consistent in Iowa elections so we already know how many people are going to vote; it's just a matter of when.

Precisely my point.  That leaves fewer Republicans and more Democrats in the pool on election day than in 2008.

Well, yes, but in 2008 Democrats  had an edge of over 100,000 voters. Thus, they build a 90k edge in early voting and still were nearly even on election day. In 2012 the Republicans have an edge of 10,000 voters.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia had approximately 300,000 people vote early between 11:30 yesterday - 11:30 today. This brings the total share of the vote to just under 1.5 million (1,478,546). While I haven't been recording the daily numbers, I believe this is the biggest one-day turnout so far - even bigger than last Saturday.

One and a half more days of this turnout and Georgia will be close to hitting its 2008 early voting total (2,020,839). What's even better is that this is being done with a much shorter voting period this year (45 days in 2008, 21 days in 2012).

[Skill and Chance]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

The question, though, is how many of these additional early voters the R's are turning out were election day McCain voters in 2008?  It is well noted that the Romney campaign has emphasized early voting much more than McCain did.

In Iowa both sides are cannibalizing their election day turnout. Turnout is very consistent in Iowa elections so we already know how many people are going to vote; it's just a matter of when.

Precisely my point.  That leaves fewer Republicans and more Democrats in the pool on election day than in 2008.

Well, yes, but in 2008 Democrats  had an edge of over 100,000 voters. Thus, they build a 90k edge in early voting and still were nearly even on election day. In 2012 the Republicans have an edge of 10,000 voters.

But where did the 100K go?  They were probably indies who wanted to caucus for Obama or Hillary in 2008.  Many of them would also want to caucus for Romney or Santorum this time around, knowing that Obama was unchallenged.

[J. J.]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

The question, though, is how many of these additional early voters the R's are turning out were election day McCain voters in 2008?  It is well noted that the Romney campaign has emphasized early voting much more than McCain did.

They have had an increase in R registration.  The polling is also showing it a lot closer. 

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/democrats-crushing-republicans-sporadic-fla-voters-early-voting#comments

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[J. J.]

You are one likes internal polls.  Because of the change in early voting more D's voted absentee in FL.  That's all that there is. 

[Lief 🗽]

What are you even talking about?

[J. J.]

What are you even talking about?

You, citing a D operative as evidence that Obama could carry FL. 

[Lief 🗽]

I'm just passing information, from the Tampa Bay Times, a non-partisan newspaper, along. Don't believe it if you don't want to.

[J. J.]

I'm just passing information, from the Tampa Bay Times, a non-partisan newspaper, along. Don't believe it if you don't want to.

Which is quoting a Democratic operative.

Tom Ridge said Romney will win PA too.