MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Presley has filed to run.

uhh.... wrong presley. and that's arkansas lol

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Strange would have beat Jones like 60-36

Jones was actually doing almost as well in polling vs Luther Strange. Also, why would there be such a small swing from 2016, when there's been a pretty massive special election swing since Trump is president? There obviously would be a big swung like we've seen in basically every election since 2016. You do realize dems are obviously favored to win the house, right? Polls don't mean anything - actual election results do (and they've been fantastic for dems across the board).

Luther Strange was seen as corrupt and unresponsive to Alabama's needs. Jones vs Strange would have been around +8 Strange.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

And there we go!

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/974028345527685121

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Please somebody run against this guy.

I hope Baria switches here

Either that or another Republican enter the race.

The governor is going to appoint a Republican into the seat, but there is a very good chance that McDaniels is able to beat whatever Republican is appointed in a primary.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Espy got a lot of white voters to vote for him back in the day (after he was already an incumbent), but he hasn't really been a notable figure in politics for about 20 years. Most people won't remember the great service he did for the agricultural community in Mississippi. The reactionary people will not give Espy much of a chance when they hear the corruption charges, even though he was acquitted.

Now, given how polarized Mississippi is, I'm not sure Espy can get much more than 15% of the white vote, even vs a controversial asshole like McDaniels. He's going to probably need at least 18% of the white vote even if there is a huge difference between black turnout and white.

He's definitely better than a generic D in Mississippi, but Jim Hood and Brandon Presley are stronger candidates. I'm not sure either could beat Espy in a primary, though.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Phil Bryant is going to appoint a former democrat?

Seems like an easy person to attack for McDaniels

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think the runoff will be Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel.

What? You do realize there's only one D and D's have a floor of 35% in Mississippi.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I like Espy but he doesn't seem to have done anything in the past month with his campaign.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Espy is getting 18% of white voters even vs CHS. Not bad, but he needs 22% minimum + huge black margins and turnout to even have a chance.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Interesting that the splits are so large. I expected Espy would be strong against CMD but not as strong as the poll suggests. The CHS poll is about where I'd expect.

Obama only lost MS by 11.5... I bet a black democrat in this 2018 environment only loses by 5-6 against CMD.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

An Espy vs McDaniel runoff is the only way Democrats win here.

It's the only way that Espy wins, but I'm not ready to say that Shelton can't beat McDaniel, nor that he can't beat CHS.

Espy is probably better than Shelton. Shelton is a literal "Who"?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

An Espy vs McDaniel runoff is the only way Democrats win here.

It's the only way that Espy wins, but I'm not ready to say that Shelton can't beat McDaniel, nor that he can't beat CHS.

Espy is probably better than Shelton. Shelton is a literal "Who"?

Shelton is the mayor of one of the largest and most important cities in the state. That's not even close to a "literal Who"

Additionally, Shelton's city (Tupelo) is the hub of the only part of the state (the Northeast) that has Republican voters who sometimes vote Democratic. Hood and Presley win because they get Republicans from that part of the state to cross over and vote for them.

As stated, there's no proof that Shelton will do as well as those two - he might be a total dud. But at least he fits the profile of someone who can win. He has a plausible path, while Espy would be in totally uncharted territory.

Tupelo has a whopping population of 40,000. Not insignificant, but mostly irrelevant.


Getting higher black turnout & margins is more important than getting dixiecrats who only vote for local democrats and not federal democrats.

Also, dems already tried this strategy. Travis Childers tried to out conservative Thad Cochran, and while he did do better in NE MS, he ended up doing terribly overall because of terrible black margins & turnout for a democrat. And Childers represented MS in congress.

He lost by almost 30% compared to Obama's 10% loss. In Georgia, dems only did 1% worse than Obama's 2012 result.


Espy also has a better resume than Tupelo. Southern democratic parties need to stop nominating conservative white men as their nominee. It doesn't work anymore.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Mike Espy is well known in the state and was exonernated from wrong doing. He already has a 35/20 favorability despite not campaigning much yet. Clearly people in MS know & respect him, even with his past controversies. He's already getting 16% of whites in MS when the usual dem only gets 10%. He's not a random by any means. He was one of the best congressman from Mississippi and did fantastic work for farmers. He has a great message and can unite the people of MS well.

I would support Jim Hood over him, but Espy is a fantastic person and I'm tired of Atlas pooping on him over and over again. He's not just "generic black man" -- he's an accomplished individual. Atlas is just so obsessed with nominating random white people and it's infuriating. Jim Hood is an Attorney General; Shelton is just a mayor of a small city. Jim Hood is much better than Shelton lol.

Black people feel as if the democratic party does not care about them. The dem party absolutely needs to bring up black turnout if they want to do well in the south. Mike Espy's strong resume of fighting for civil rights & religious convictions will be a strong driver in the rural black south.


Look at Espy's website and his mission statement. It is a fantastic message.

Edit: Here's the kind of stuff I'm talking about when I say he really understands farmer issues... http://msbusiness.com/2018/04/mike-espy-ag-tariffs-we-should-be-careful-what-we-ask-for/

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Espy is getting more white voters than Travis Childers anyways, and obviously far more black voters.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Espy is getting more white voters than Travis Childers anyways, and obviously far more black voters.

Childers ran [halfheartedly, but we'll ignore that] in a horrible Democratic year against a popular 6-term incumbent. Of course he lost big.

Yeah, but he got more white voters than Obama (and Obama lost by only 11%)

My point is, Espy can get AT LEAST the same % of white voters as Childers get, and get close to (but probably not exactly) Obama turnout/margin among black voters.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You know, I've really been disappointed in CHS' campaign and I don't like the idea of Gov. Bryant being able to "pick" our senator for what is probably the next 20-30 years.

So, I've decided that I will either be voting for Espy or McDaniel.  Espy is definitely closer to me ideologically and while I don't support McDaniel at all, a vote for him would be much more detrimental to CHS' chances of winning.

I'd encourage McDaniel primary and Espy runoff, personally.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I feel like Espy wasn't the best candidate here, this could've been a real race with Presley.

Black voters wouldn't have come out for him. Mississippi is unwinnable for federal office with its current electorate makeup.

Well black voters came out for Doug Jones and Smith's racism would bring black voters out anyways.

They really didn't. Jones got less votes than Hillary and turnout in black precincts was down a lot. It's just rural white precincts were down way more.