I think you make a good point. Republicans spend a lot of time thinking about "independents" when "moderates" go Democrat by double digits. But what more can Republicans do? They've ignored social issues since 2004, possibly alienating the conservadems. The obsessive socially liberal left has shown unwillingness in federal races to support non-Democratic candidates. Yes, it's true, in your state for example, that Bruce Rauner had a lot more support in the collar counties-maybe it has something to do with being pro-abortion but maybe it also has something to do with being a better campaigner and fundraiser.
We're losing moderates, there's no doubt about it. But we're running moderate candidates, by most measures. Candidates who likely won't seek to overturn Roe or overturn SSM. What more do social liberals want?
Let's look at Mitt Romney, the 2012 nominee
Did he ignore social issues? No. While he was careful to not bring up SSM on the campaign trail, his website stated his opposition to it, and the party platform supported a constitutional amendment banning it. As far as Abortion goes, Romney not only advocated overturning Roe vs. Wade on the campaign trail, he also advocated ending planned parenthood.
Let's look at John McCain, the 2008 nominee
Did he ignore social issues? Not sure about SSM, but he was definitely very vocal on his pro-life position on Abortion on the campaign trail, culminating in a moment during one of the debates where he supported banning abortion under all circumstances, even when it is done to save the Mother's Life.
So, yeah, so much for republicans ignoring social issues.
But they do. Romney pretty much had the same view as Obama did on SSM other than personal opinion. Neither proposed federal legalization. I'm saying that relentlessly avoiding these issues cost them conservative voters.
The truth is that these social activists would not even vote for a socially liberal Republican. They're going after a demographic they think are swing voters but aren't.
They DID NOT ignore social issues. I am willing to concede that SSM was mainly ignored, but read my post again and notice the heavy republican focus on Abortion in 2008/2012.
They hadn't much choice. What else would they say? Boast about their commitment to austerity and banks? Celebrate the Iraq war?