2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 129928 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1850 on: October 25, 2018, 04:34:52 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 25, 2018, 04:33:09 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 04:30:20 PM
Not to sound panicky again, but the 538 GCB average has been falling sharply in the past couple days. Even if it doesn't fall further, winning by 8 and winning by 8.5 are not equivalent.

Come on dude...that's negligible movement.

We'll see. A movement's importance is inversely proportional to how much time is left to election day.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #1851 on: October 25, 2018, 04:50:26 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 04:34:52 PM
We'll see. A movement's importance is inversely proportional to how much time is left to election day.

The GCB has gone down a tad (really about a fraction of a point) only because it is infected with a swarm of junk polls and all the higher quality pollsters are waiting to conduct their polls just before the election. Next week we will get a bunch more polls from everyone, and then the situation will be more clear.

At the moment, the most recent 10 GCB polls is a veritable who's-who of junk pollsters. The most recent GCB polls on 538 are:

YouGov
Suffolk
McLaughlin
Ipsos
Harris
USC
Morning Consult
Harris
Ipsos
Rasmussen

Of those, only a SINGLE ONE (Suffolk) is a high quality phone pollster, and their result was D+8, right in line with what the average has been pretty much forever. Why? Because nobody wants to poll 2 weeks before the election. Everyone wants to poll 1 week before the election. Except for the junk pollsters (generally online or robopoll) that are literally always polling (Reuters, Morning Consult, Rasmussen, Harris, Yougov etc).

Over the next week or so, we can expect to get a flood of better quality phone polls from pollsters like Quinnipiac, FOX, CNN, CBS, NBC-WSJ, Pew, Marist, etc.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1852 on: October 25, 2018, 04:55:16 PM »
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Probably Win 👁 on October 25, 2018, 04:50:26 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 04:34:52 PM
We'll see. A movement's importance is inversely proportional to how much time is left to election day.

The GCB has gone down a tad (really about a fraction of a point) only because it is infected with a swarm of junk polls and all the higher quality pollsters are waiting to conduct their polls just before the election. Next week we will get a bunch more polls from everyone, and then the situation will be more clear.

At the moment, the most recent 10 GCB polls is a veritable who's-who of junk pollsters. The most recent GCB polls on 538 are:

YouGov
Suffolk
McLaughlin
Ipsos
Harris
USC
Morning Consult
Harris
Ipsos
Rasmussen

Of those, only a SINGLE ONE (Suffolk) is a high quality phone pollster, and their result was D+8, right in line with what the average has been pretty much forever. Why? Because nobody wants to poll 2 weeks before the election. Everyone wants to poll 1 week before the election. Except for the junk pollsters (generally online or robopoll) that are literally always polling (Reuters, Morning Consult, Rasmussen, Harris, Yougov etc).

Over the next week or so, we can expect to get a flood of better quality phone polls from pollsters like Quinnipiac, FOX, CNN, CBS, NBC-WSJ, Pew, Marist, etc.

Ding ding ding.  We have a winner!
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #1853 on: October 25, 2018, 04:56:09 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 04:30:20 PM
Not to sound panicky again, but the 538 GCB average has been falling sharply in the past couple days. Even if it doesn't fall further, winning by 8 and winning by 8.5 are not equivalent.

And all of this has caused 538's median projection of House seats to plummet from D+39 to D+38.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1854 on: October 25, 2018, 05:34:43 PM »


*Waits for "RED WAVE IMMINENT" posts from certain quarters*
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1855 on: October 25, 2018, 05:52:48 PM »
Look, we'll see soon enough how things turn out, but don't blame me for being cautious after 2016.
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Xing
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« Reply #1856 on: October 25, 2018, 05:55:10 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 05:52:48 PM
Look, we'll see soon enough how things turn out, but don't blame me for being cautious after 2016.

A lot of us want to be cautious, but there's a fine line between being cautious and freaking out over any bit of data suggesting less than a Democratic tsunami.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1857 on: October 25, 2018, 06:07:59 PM »
Quote from: Xing on October 25, 2018, 05:55:10 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 05:52:48 PM
Look, we'll see soon enough how things turn out, but don't blame me for being cautious after 2016.

A lot of us want to be cautious, but there's a fine line between being cautious and freaking out over any bit of data suggesting less than a Democratic tsunami.

"Cautiously optimistic" is about where I am right now.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #1858 on: October 25, 2018, 06:19:08 PM »
SD-AL (Mason-Dixon):
Dusty Johnson (R) 54
Tim Bjorkman (D) 31

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/25/south-dakota-2018-election-us-house-representative-poll-dusty-johnson-tim-bjorkman/1749637002/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1859 on: October 25, 2018, 06:44:00 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 05:52:48 PM
Look, we'll see soon enough how things turn out, but don't blame me for being cautious after 2016.

There's a difference between being cautious and saying a 0.5 movement is "serious"
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1860 on: October 25, 2018, 07:13:17 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 05:52:48 PM
Look, we'll see soon enough how things turn out, but don't blame me for being cautious after 2016.

Same number of days between now and the election as there was in 2016 between the Comey Letter and electing Trump.
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Person Man
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« Reply #1861 on: October 25, 2018, 07:20:43 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 25, 2018, 07:13:17 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 05:52:48 PM
Look, we'll see soon enough how things turn out, but don't blame me for being cautious after 2016.

Same number of days between now and the election as there was in 2016 between the Comey Letter and electing Trump.

Lordy, just one more week!
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #1862 on: October 25, 2018, 08:10:55 PM »
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1863 on: October 25, 2018, 08:19:43 PM »
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Probably Win 👁 on October 25, 2018, 08:10:55 PM


Woah.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1864 on: October 25, 2018, 08:43:21 PM »
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Probably Win 👁 on October 25, 2018, 08:10:55 PM


This is definitely one of those races that could end up being one of the unforeseen Dem upsets Nate Cohn foretold.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1865 on: October 25, 2018, 09:00:00 PM »
Just a reminder that Change Research is garbage:
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1866 on: October 25, 2018, 09:08:22 PM »
That would be quite the swing against Fischer if that were the case.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #1867 on: October 25, 2018, 09:10:16 PM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 25, 2018, 09:00:00 PM
Just a reminder that Change Research is garbage:



Change research is pretty garbagey, but I don't see what is so crazy about 55-39 in NE-01. Trump only won it 57-36, and it voted considerably more for Obama in '12 and '08.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1868 on: October 25, 2018, 09:47:13 PM »
Change is a junk pollster, but I hope that Senate number is right. I made a "bold prediction" forever ago that Blackburn will win by more than Fischer, and it would be cool for that to be accurate.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1869 on: October 25, 2018, 09:48:33 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 25, 2018, 09:47:13 PM
Change is a junk pollster, but I hope that Senate number is right. I made a "bold prediction" forever ago that Blackburn will win by more than Fischer, and it would be cool for that to be accurate.

Really poor approvals for Trump in the Central Plains.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1870 on: October 25, 2018, 09:51:44 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 25, 2018, 09:48:33 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on October 25, 2018, 09:47:13 PM
Change is a junk pollster, but I hope that Senate number is right. I made a "bold prediction" forever ago that Blackburn will win by more than Fischer, and it would be cool for that to be accurate.

Really poor approvals for Trump in the Central Plains.

Lingering backlash from the tariffs? This may suggest that Trump's approvals haven't improved in Iowa ever since the NAFTA renegotiations.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1871 on: October 26, 2018, 06:26:48 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2018, 08:18:26 AM by Virginiá »
Thread locked. Please see Part 4


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New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=304960.0
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