2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[junior chįmp]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

Dont worry....theyll be another BS narrative next week now that tax cut, North Korea, Kavanaugh bump has failed to materialize

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

Dont worry....theyll be another BS narrative next week now that tax cut, North Korea, Kavanaugh bump has failed to materialize

That's because something new happens every week. Did you predict the Comey Letter? Kavanaugh Backlash? The Macaca controversy?  Besides, we're literally in the month of the "October Surprise". Don't get too smug.

[Gass3268]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

It's one poll, from the same outfit that produced this gem:

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

That was five days before the Comey letter when the Access Hollywood tape was still in everyone's minds. Why is it so hard for people to realize that if the election was held in mid-October, Clinton would have won in a probable mega-landslide?

[Devout Centrist]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

It's one poll, from the same outfit that produced this gem:

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

That was an ABC poll

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[junior chįmp]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

Dont worry....theyll be another BS narrative next week now that tax cut, North Korea, Kavanaugh bump has failed to materialize

That's because something new happens every week. Did you predict the Comey Letter? Kavanaugh Backlash? The Macaca controversy?  Besides, we're literally in the month of the "October Surprise". Don't get too smug.

None of that stuff matters. Of course the media has a vested interest in creating bogus narratives out of thin air for ratings and to give the appearance that there's some kind of horse race going on. But there is no horse race....the GOP has been screwed since the day Trump was inaguarated.

[Xing]

Can we just combine this thread with the concern trolling megathread already?

[Gass3268]

Also looking at the poll and others, it looks like Democrats are doing really well with seniors. Looks like Trump might have pissed off grandma.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

It's one poll, from the same outfit that produced this gem:

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

That was five days before the Comey letter when the Access Hollywood tape was still in everyone's minds. Why is it so hard for people to realize that if the election was held in mid-October, Clinton would have won in a probable mega-landslide?

You're missing the point. Reversals happen and can come before anyone has a chance to breathe. Don't get too smug and complacent.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have to admit, I don't really buy a 35-point gender gap. I could buy 25 but this is just too much. This might be statistical noise, but there also might be something weird about this sample.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Elise_Jordan/status/1049694660682117120

Gender gap expanded in this poll post Kav, Men are R+5, Women are D+30.

[Gass3268]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

It's one poll, from the same outfit that produced this gem:

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

That was five days before the Comey letter when the Access Hollywood tape was still in everyone's minds. Why is it so hard for people to realize that if the election was held in mid-October, Clinton would have won in a probable mega-landslide?

You're missing the point. Reversals happen and can come before anyone has a chance to breathe. Don't get too smug and complacent.

Got it, lots of people make the same argument you made to say that polls are fake and what not.

[Yank2133]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

Dont worry....theyll be another BS narrative next week now that tax cut, North Korea, Kavanaugh bump has failed to materialize

That's because something new happens every week. Did you predict the Comey Letter? Kavanaugh Backlash? The Macaca controversy?  Besides, we're literally in the month of the "October Surprise". Don't get too smug.

We have been getting a lot of "surprises" all year and yet the generic ballot has been fairly stable. The thing about Clinton in 2016 that everyone ignores is how soft her support was in many polls, which caused a lot of volatility.

We haven't seen that with the generic ballot (it has been 7-9 for the majority of 2018). Now it doesn't mean Democrats can be complacent, but this isn't 2016.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dems in disarray

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

Dont worry....theyll be another BS narrative next week now that tax cut, North Korea, Kavanaugh bump has failed to materialize

That's because something new happens every week. Did you predict the Comey Letter? Kavanaugh Backlash? The Macaca controversy?  Besides, we're literally in the month of the "October Surprise". Don't get too smug.

 get over your Kavanaugh bump.

[Person Man]

Democrats gain 3 points in CNN's Generic Ballot vs September:

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1049691950704672769

Kavanaugh  Bump

What a nice poll.

DOMINATING

[Tender Branson]

Everything still pointing to a Dem landslide ...

[TheRocketRaccoon]

FL-16 Public Opinion Strategies (Buchanan internal): Buchanan (R-inc) 52, Shapiro (D) 42

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-5826-d5d9-ab67-de66ee9e0001

Trump won this R+7 seat 54-43 in 2016, Buchanan 60-40.

Perhaps of greater interest would be results for statewide races here - Senate is tied 48-48, while DeSantis leads for Governor 42-44. Both of these should imply that Nelson and Gillum lead statewide by at least low to mid single digits.

[Doimper]

Everything still pointing to a Dem landslide ...

but muh kavanaugh

muh americans being capable of remembering any major political event a month after it happened

[2016]

Everything still pointing to a Dem landslide ...

Potentially but only in the House if anything.

[President Johnson]

Great CNN poll, but in some swing district polls, it looks closer.

The gender gap in the CNN poll is pretty Yuuuuuuuuuuge

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html

Repeal men's sufferage!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/1049735242221854720

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/1049735242221854720

Prolly an "I'm in danger, send money." Poll than anything to gasp about.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/1049735242221854720

Great news for McGrath!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/1049735242221854720

Great news for McGrath!

This fits in well with McGrath's +7 internal poll.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/1049735242221854720

Great news for McGrath!