Why should we??

[Vern]

Why should we trust the polls or this forum? This time in 2016 they had the Republican having a very bad night on election night. What makes this time different?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why should we trust the polls or this forum? This time in 2016 they had the Republican having a very bad night on election night. What makes this time different?

You're absolutely right.  We should shut down this forum immediately, and Congress should outlaw all political polling.

[Sorenroy]

Why should we trust the polls or this forum? This time in 2016 they had the Republican having a very bad night on election night. What makes this time different?

You're absolutely right.  We should shut down this forum immediately, and Congress should outlaw all political polling.

Personally, I just throw 100 numbered cards in the air and whatever number I catch is the percentage the Democrat will get in a given race. It's better than trusting the lyin' media and their fake news polls.

[Xing]

"Why should we trust the polls or the pundits? This time in 2012 they said the election would be 'extremely close.' What makes this time different?" Said the Democrats in 2014.

"The polls aren't showing what I want to see, so they must be wrong!" That may have worked well in 2016, but just about any other time one party has made that argument, the results have actually been worse than the polls for that party. Sure, polls could be underestimating Republicans this year, but I'd say it's just as likely, if not more likely, that polls will underestimate Democrats this year.

[MarkD]

You're right. Ultimately, the only polling that matters are the elections themselves. Polling makes mistakes and includes so many undecided voters that we can't depend on them.

[Crumpets]

Because our only other option at this point is divination?

[Devout Centrist]

Because our only other option at this point is divination?

Jimmie, come here!

[Adam Griffin]

Because our only other option at this point is divination?

Jimmie, come here!

Let's take Lake County and throw it in the air: if it lands on heads, Democrats win the House; tails, Republicans.

[jamestroll]

Because our only other option at this point is divination?

Jimmie, come here!

Let's take Lake County and throw it in the air: if it lands on heads, Democrats win the House; tails, Republicans.

Lake County is no longer a swing county! Even in 2014, Democrtas held their own there. Going forward it will be titantium Democratic and voting like the Cook County suburbs.

[TML]

We should take polls with a grain of salt, but we shouldn't discount them completely.

Remember that 538 calculates probabilities by running simulations based on polling data and other figures, and the probabilities are determined by how many of the simulations result in one candidate winning and how many result in the other candidate winning. From this viewpoint, we can say that any particular outcome could have been "picked" from a "grab bag" of possible outcomes.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Why should we trust the polls or this forum? This time in 2016 they had the Republican having a very bad night on election night. What makes this time different?

I believe the polls are biased for a couple of reasons.
1. Most trumpers won't admit to supporting the guy. They're either racist, believe we should bomb the hell out of most of the world or secret fascist.
2. most polls are ran by liberals. One always roots for ones team.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why should we trust the polls or this forum? This time in 2016 they had the Republican having a very bad night on election night. What makes this time different?

I believe the polls are bias for a couple of reasons.
1. Most trumpers won't admit to supporting the guy. They're either racist, believe we should bomb the hell out of most of the world or secret fascist.
2. most polls are ran by liberals. One always roots for ones team.

I won't argue against your points (although I don't agree with them), but just want to use this opportunity as a PSA:

Something is BIASED!  Not something is BIAS!   Bias is what the person has if they are biased!

Sorry, one of my pet language peeves.  You're not the only offender.  I feel better now.