Is it safe to assume there will be a majority in the national assembly after the June elections that will in fact elect a prime minister of Hollande's choosing?
The Left has a solid and consistent lead in the polls, so that's a fairly safe assumption. They need to screw things up big time to loose.
Sarkozy is more(?!?) popular than his party?
He didn't lose by that much... His party could lose by more.
Exactly my point.
I would put it another way. Sarkozy is an excellent campaigner, that has always been his main strength. Its not so much a question of popularity
per se, but more of raw ability to destroy the other guy (he didn't do it this time because the odds where too much against him, but he came close).