It won’t be this close, CA polling always underestimates Democrats. He’ll lose by even more than last time.
While I believe CA polling underestimates Dems, I'm no longer sure that CA will move left of 2016 in 2020. In Newsom vs. Cox 2018, Cox basically got all of the 2016 3rd party vote even as Newsom improved in absolute terms, so the Dem margin closed. And this happened with Cox > Clinton in L.A. county and most of the Bay Area, and at the same time other SW states moved hard left vs. 2016.
I could see a scenario with the Dem improving from 61.5% to 62-63%, but Trump also improves from 31.5% to 34-36% as the 3rd party vote drops.
This is also why I think it's entirely plausible Trump picks up MN while the Dem gets PA back.
