The most important swing county in each state

[tpfkaw]

Massachusetts:  Barnstable (national bellweather, though a case could be made for Norfolk or Essex given Romney's home state advantage), Hampden (decides state)

[tpfkaw]

Massachusetts:  Barnstable (national bellweather, though a case could be made for Norfolk or Essex given Romney's home state advantage), Hampden (decides state)

Plymouth is more of a bellweather than any of these I think.

No, Plymouth has been heavily trending Republican (Obama won it by the same margin as nationally last time, compared to Kerry who did 11% better than nationwide, and Gore who did 15% better).

[tpfkaw]

Massachusetts:  Barnstable (national bellweather, though a case could be made for Norfolk or Essex given Romney's home state advantage), Hampden (decides state)

Plymouth is more of a bellweather than any of these I think.

No, Plymouth has been heavily trending Republican (Obama won it by the same margin as nationally last time, compared to Kerry who did 11% better than nationwide, and Gore who did 15% better).

But yet it's still the most GOP county in MA. That has potential for a swing county, I think if Romney campaigns well and if the economy collapses again, that county will be a Romney County.

That's my point...  Plymouth is almost certainly going to be more Republican than the country this year, and so is not a bellweather county.