What is the biggest threat to Trump winning in November?

[°Leprechaun]

This is a difficult question for me to answer.
Nothing seems to hurt him.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Himself

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The wait period between now and Nov, we have 6 months to listen to crazy polls

[ProgressiveModerate]

Himself is a good answer

Other than that, probably Demographic change - in basically every key swing state (except maybe Nevada) it's the Republican and Republican-shifting communities disproportionately losing population, Democratic and Democrat-shifting communities growing the fastest. All these states are becoming actively more diverse, and seeing urban metro areas becoming more dominant and have bigger spheres of cultural influence.

Trump already lost in 2020, but by default these demographic changes likely pad Biden's margins in key states like Georgia by another couple % - by default Trump has to be gaining with new voters all else being equal.

[President Johnson]

Other than himself, a strong economy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

J6 and insurrection

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Democrats continuing to do well in special elections despite Biden's approval ratings.

[SnowLabrador]

Democrats continuing to do well in special elections despite Biden's approval ratings.

Why is Biden uniquely toxic, though?

[Ferguson97]

The same thing that lost the Republicans the midterms: Dobbs and democracy.

[DaleCooper]

Dying before election day. Probably a 20% chance at least that this happens.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Dying before election day. Probably a 20% chance at least that this happens.

A 77 year old male has less than a 5% chance of dying in a year, according to the Social Security Administration.  And, that includes those who have a terminal diagnosis.  So, no, a slightly overweight 77 year old in otherwise generally decent health doesn't have anywhere near a 20% chance of dying in a 6 month period.

The chance is reasonably strong that both Trump and Biden are still alive four years from today.

To answer the original question, it's the legal stuff turning up something that's actually a game changer for swing voters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Himself

This.

[DaleCooper]

Dying before election day. Probably a 20% chance at least that this happens.

A 77 year old male has less than a 5% chance of dying in a year, according to the Social Security Administration.  And, that includes those who have a terminal diagnosis.  So, no, a slightly overweight 77 year old in otherwise generally decent health doesn't have anywhere near a 20% chance of dying in a 6 month period.

The chance is reasonably strong that both Trump and Biden are still alive four years from today.

To answer the original question, it's the legal stuff turning up something that's actually a game changer for swing voters.

He weighs 800 pounds.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs overconfident in polls, I see very well that there are still polling biases, that will last u til Eday. We thought that the polls was gonna subside in the Summer but there is still Trump bias

Rs don't think that J6 is gonna figure into us voting in Nov yes it will

[soundchaser]

Conviction and sentencing in the New York trial.