International COVID-19 Megathread

[Mike88]

Portugal update: The number of cases rose to 2,060, 460 than yesterday. The number of deaths rose to 23, but there are already 14 fully recovered.

Less than 10% are hospitalized, and just 47 in critical condition. However, there are reports of worrisome conditions in some nursing homes across the country.

The State of Emergency is in full application now, and, until now, 8 people have been fined for violating the law. And yesterday, the mayor of my city had to almost close down the city as many people were coming to the city to walk and enjoy the sunshine along the seashore. Police was called to close the seashore and were stopping people in the city's entrance.

[Mike88]

Some talk tonight of a potential proposal of a 'National Government' in the UK in the event of a prolonged or staggered crisis.

The same idea has also been talked about here in Portugal, a PS+PSD government, but it's still unlikely.

If Keir Starmer wins the Labour leadership, perhaps relations between Labour and the Tories could be easier.

[Mike88]

Update on Portugal: 3,544 cases so far, 60 deaths and 43 full recoveries. However, the numbers of people admitted to hospital fell to 191, from 276 yesterday, and 61 people are in the ICU.

[Mike88]

Possible explanation for diverging death rates: Number of ICUs per 100,000 inhabitants (graphic from Austrian Krone newspaper):



Italy and Spain are screwed, but so are possibly UK and Ireland.

The numbers differ a bit from the data in this article: https://www.politico.eu/article/charting-europes-capacity-to-deal-with-the-coronavirus-crisis/

In this data, Germany has the highest rate of ICU beds, 29.2, and Portugal has the lowest, 4.2. Spain has 9.7, Italy 12.5, UK 6.6, Ireland 6.5.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

6,408 cases as of today, 446 more than yesterday. The number of deaths also grew to 140. Nonetheless, it was one of the lowest increase in % on new infections till date, 7.5%.

[Mike88]

Update on Portugal:

8,251 cases as of today, and 187 deaths. But, the numbers are creating some controversy:

During this week, Health officials were thinking of creating a sanitary cord around the Great Porto Area, around 1,2 million inhabitants, as the number of infected seemed to have double in just 24 hours. But, the count was badly done and wrongly health officials multiplied the Porto numbers twice, giving a higher number than reality. Several hospitals are also criticizing the big bureaucracy of registering new cases. The number of recoveries is also under big controversy as it has stabilized on a total of 43 for almost a week. This is because patients who have no more symptoms are not being retested due to the lack of tests.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

The number of cases rose to 11,278 today, a 7.2% increase, with 295 deaths. It's the 4th consecutive day with cases growth bellow 10%.

https://twitter.com/VOSTPT/status/1246761726151987200

About the number of tests, interesting that despite the reports that the number of tests in Portugal were low, the country doesn't look bad compared to other countries. Next week, we may surpass the 100,000 tests mark.

[Mike88]

Austria and Portugal accused of stockpiling drugs, causing shortages of coronavirus drugs in EU:

https://twitter.com/ReutersBiz/status/1247308169900105729

BRUSSELS, April 6 (Reuters) - Hospitals in the European Union are facing shortages of critical drugs to treat COVID-19 patients because of trade restrictions and excessive stockpiling by EU governments, EU and industry officials said on Monday.

Despite several calls for solidarity, many of the 27 EU nations have resorted to protectionist measures during the coronavirus outbreak, restricting sales of essential products, such as medicines, face masks and medical devices.

“Some EU member states have indicated that they are starting to see shortages of certain medicines used for patients with COVID-19 or are expecting such shortages to occur very soon,” the European Medicines Agency said in a statement.

(...)

Austria and Portugal are among EU states that are excessively stockpiling, said Kasper Ernest, secretary general of Affordable Medicines Europe, the trade body for pharmaceutical wholesalers.
TRADE CURBS

Many countries have also restricted the export of drugs that are deemed essential during the epidemic. Under some of these curbs, only when national needs are fulfilled, medicines can be exported. The restrictions hit mostly distributors.

The European Commission, the EU executive arm, is probing the legality of measures adopted by France, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, a spokeswoman for the EU commission said on Monday, adding that trade restrictions also apply to medical gear and devices.

(...)

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

12,442 cases as of today (+6% compared with yesterday), 345 deaths (+34), and 184 fully recovered (+44).

Specialists are now considering that Portugal is being successful in flattening the curve:
https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1247477973323743232

The effect of social isolation: new cases of # covid_19 slow down in #Portugal. Three experts explain what comes next: http://bit.ly/2RiY1sh

Also, more than 121,000 tests have been done.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

699 new cases today, (+6%), elevating the total to 13,141 cases. The number of the deaths rose to 380, as well did the recovered to 196.

The good news is that the number of patients in ICU has dropped for the 1st time, from 271 yesterday to 245 today. We'll see how the trend goes in the next few days.

Also, almost 130,000 tests have been done unitil now.

The major concern now is the situation in nursing homes across the country. Mayors across the country are asking for more and more tests to test older people in these nursing homes.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

Worst day for new cases so far, 1,516 new cases, putting the total on 15,472 cases. However, the number of deaths had a lower increase than yesterday, and the recovered increased to 233. The number of patients on ICU also drooped again, while the number of hospitalized maintained steady.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

After a bad day yesterday, the number of new infected grew just 3% and ICU patients and hospitalized maintained steady:

Positive cases: 15,987 (+515)
Deaths: 470 (+35)
Recoveries: 266 (+33)
Patients in ICU: 233 (+7)
Patients hospitalized: 1,175 (-4)

161,475 tests conducted since March 1st.

[Mike88]

Ursula von der Leyen now urging Germans not yet book vacation for the summer months. I think this is dangerous. Southern European countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Croatia heavily depend on the tourism industry. These countries, are have been struggling already, can't afford to sit one summer out. It's just not possible by any means. With all due respect, we need to be careful that the "medicine" isn't more deadly than the virus itsself.

Tourism is a big share of GDP, but not dominating. It's somewhere between 5-20% for each country.

And while the low number of German tourists would hurt badly, this can be compensated by "patriotic" holiday making of domestic people. For example, the average Austrian should vacation in Austria this summer. And not only once, but twice or three times. That way, the losses would not be as tough, as experts have said.

According to data, tourism is 19% of Portugal's GDP while Greece, Croatia and Cyprus are above 20% of GDP. Spain and Italy are at 14% and 13% respectably. No doubt that the huge fall of tourism will hurt the economies, particularly Portugal as the economic surge we had in the last few years was mainly a result in a boom in tourism services, construction of hotels, and many people creating businesses based on tourists. I understand what Ursula von der Leyen is saying, but this will hurt deeply the economies, particularly of the more smaller countries which have less resources and more vulnerabilities.

And today, a survey done by UCP-CESOP for RTP and Público newspaper, shows a grim picture of the economic impact on the pandemic in Portugal:

Q: How is your working situation right now?

35.5% Working in my regular work place
23.2% Telework
20.4% No activity
13.4% Lay off
  4.0% Unemployed
  3.3% Assisting family members
  0.2% Studing

Q: Telework experience: Rate of productivity

34% The same
32% Less
17% More
14% Much less
  3% Much more

Q: Wages: How has your income being affected?

61% Same
36% Earning less
  1% Earning more
  3% Didn't respond

% of wage loss by monthly income:

43% Until 1,000 euros
36% Between 1,000 and 2,500 euros
23% More than 2,500 euros

Poll conducted between 6 and 9 April 2020. Polled 1,700 people. MoE of 2.4%.

[Mike88]

Portugal update: Lowest increase of new cases in a month, 0,96% increase.

Total cases: 19,022 (+181)
Deaths: 657 (+28)
Recoveries: 519 (+26)
Patients in ICU: 222 (-7)
Patients hospitalized: 1,284 (-18)

234,207 tests conducted since March 1st

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

Biggest increase in recoveries ever and hospitalized and ICU patients continue to drop slightly:

Total cases: 21,379 (+516)
Deaths: 762 (+27)
Recoveries: 917 (+307)
Patients in ICU: 213 (-2)
Patients hospitalized: 1,172 (-36)

271,962 tests conducted since March 1st

[Mike88]

Only 52 new cases here since yesterday (+0.3%), up to 14.925 in total ...

In hospitals: 700 (minus 600 since the peak)
In ICU: 176 (minus 100 since the peak)

Recoveries are up by 350 since yesterday to 11.328

Active cases: 3.087 (-324)

Deaths: 510 (+19)

How are recoveries being classified in Austria?

Here in Portugal you have to do 2 tests in the space of 48 hours to declared as recovered. That's one of the main reason the number of recoveries in Portugal is quite slow, plus the fact that 85%+ of infected are treated at home and, possibly, many don't even do the 2 final tests to be declared as recovered.

[Mike88]

Only 52 new cases here since yesterday (+0.3%), up to 14.925 in total ...

In hospitals: 700 (minus 600 since the peak)
In ICU: 176 (minus 100 since the peak)

Recoveries are up by 350 since yesterday to 11.328

Active cases: 3.087 (-324)

Deaths: 510 (+19)

How are recoveries being classified in Austria?

Here in Portugal you have to do 2 tests in the space of 48 hours to declared as recovered. That's one of the main reason the number of recoveries in Portugal is quite slow, plus the fact that 85%+ of infected are treated at home and, possibly, many don't even do the 2 final tests to be declared as recovered.

This.

You get tested 2 times after being in a authorities-mandated 2 week quarantine (Red Cross people coming to your house and take the test samples).

You then get the test results and the authorities submit into the EMS system how many are tested negative and therefore recovered ...

Ah, right. The Austrian red cross goes to people houses and do the tests. Here I don't think that's the case. At least of what I know. Perhaps, in reality, the "true" number of recovered in Portugal may be well above 5,000, or more. The big number of tests in Portugal are going to nursing homes across the country, which are the biggest concern for local and the national governments.

[Mike88]

As I was writting the post above, another big jump in recoveries was announced in Portugal:

Portugal update: (22 April)

Total cases: 21,982 (+603)
Deaths: 785 (+23)
Recoveries: 1,143 (+225)
Patients in ICU: 207 (-6)
Patients hospitalized: 1,146 (-26)

281,907 tests conducted since March 1st

[Mike88]

As I was writting the post above, another big jump in recoveries was announced in Portugal:

Portugal update: (22 April)

Total cases: 21,982 (+603)
Deaths: 785 (+23)
Recoveries: 1,143 (+225)
Patients in ICU: 207 (-6)
Patients hospitalized: 1,146 (-26)

281,907 tests conducted since March 1st

Looking at the curves, i would say you are missing 12,000 recoveries in Portugal.

They are simply being under-reported worldwide as the priority for medical staff is on new and critical patients.

Yeah, the "real" number may be around that, but like you said there isn't a lot of priority in tests for recovered patients as the focus is in finding and controlling new cases. In Austria, like Tender said, the Red Cross is going house to house to test people with no symptoms anymore, while here I don't think this is happening. The vast majority of tests is going to nursing homes, like I said above, and Portugal is almost approaching the 300,000 tests mark.

[Mike88]

Bottom line:

In the 4 weeks since the lockdown in Austria, March 16 - April 12, there were 836 deaths more compared to the 2016-19 average in those weeks.

The Health Ministry has only announced 365 official COVID-deaths in hospitals and nursing homes during these 4 weeks.

Draw your own conclusions what the cause of death was for the other 471 people ...

In Portugal the same situation occurred. Between 23 March and 20 April, the number of deaths was above the average of the last 10 years, reaching 421 deaths on a single day on April 4th. Since that day, the numbers have dropped, with occasional ups and downs, but it seems to be stabilizing in the average of the last 10 years. More info here: https://evm.min-saude.pt/#shiny-tab-dashboard

The number of deaths for the above 65 years old was well above average during this period, while the number of deaths of those bellow 65 years old reached an all time low:

https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1251804121671368705

[Mike88]

Portugal update: (26 April)

Total cases: 23,864 (+472)
Deaths: 903 (+23)
Recoveries: 1,329 (+57)
Patients in ICU: 182 (-4)
Patients hospitalized: 1,005 (-35)

330,512 tests conducted since March 1st.

The health minister also announced that people infected with the virus recovering at home will only need one test, rather than the actual two, to be declared as recovered.

[Mike88]

Portugal update: (1 May)

Total cases: 25,351 (+308)
Deaths: 1,007 (+18)
Recoveries: 1,647 (+128)
Patients in ICU: 154 (-18)
Patients hospitalized: 892 (-76)

More than 400,000 tests conducted since March 1st.

By Region, the North has the highest numbers, 15,321 infected and 578 deaths, while Madeira has the least, 86 infected and 0 deaths.

[Mike88]

Labour day union demonstration in Lisbon:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1256230818017574913

[Mike88]

Quite impressively done, really

Yeah, but the feedback isn't being very good. A lot of pundits on TV are criticizing the CGTP union, close to the PCP, of giving the wrong image to the country, and that they should have found new and innovated ideas to celebrate the date. And a poll, released today, also found that 82% of the electorate doesn't approve the Labour day demonstrations.

[Mike88]

EU Commission GDP forecast 2020:
Eurozone: -7,7%

Greece -9.7%
Italy -9.5%
Spain -9.4%
France -8.2%
Ireland -7.9%
Lithuania -7.9%
Cyprus-7.4%
Belgium -7.2%
Latvia -7%
Slovenia -7%
Estonia -6.9%
Portugal -6.8%
Netherlands -6.8%
Slovakia -6.7%
Germany -6.5%
Finland -6.3%
Malta -5.8%
Austria -5.5%
Luxembourg -5.4%

Non-Euro:
Croatia -9.1%
United Kingdom -8.3%
Bulgaria -7.2%
Hungary -7%
Sweden -6.1%
Romania -6%
Denmark -5.9%
Poland -4.3%

They also predict a fast recovery in 2021. Mostly in line with IMF forecast and expectations, except Germany (better than expected) and UK (worse than expected), which is likely because in those two Virus spread is being contained and Lockdowns are being lifted faster and slower than expected respectively. I would still be cautious about those two projections. Sad for Greece which handled the Virus better than most.

Did Germany actually report zero covid deaths yesterday?  That’s what worldometers is showing.

I think Worldometers is wrong. RKI (German CDC) reported 947 new infections and 165 deaths.

Portugal's numbers aren't as bad as expected, surprisingly. They're still bad, but still:

GDP 2020: -6.8%
GDP 2021: +5.8%
Debt 2020: 131.5%
Debt 2021: 124.4%
Unemployment 2020: 9.7%
Unemployment 2021: 7.4%
Deficit 2020: -6.5%
Deficit 2021: -1.8%

We'll see how these forecasts play out.