Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Tender Branson]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

[SunSt0rm]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1

first choose year and province

[Tender Branson]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1

first choose year and province

Thx.

Will the results today also be published here, or is there another page ?

[mvd10]

FWIW:

The AD asked people in Heemskerk to also cast a ballot for them. The VVD currently is at 26% there. Heemskerk can be considered the bellwether of the Netherlands. But you can still vote until 21:00 so it probably isn't worth anything.

Final seat prediction:

VVD 29
PVV 21
CDA 21
D66 17
GL 16
SP 14
PvdA 12
CU 6
50PLUS 4
PvdD 4
SGP 3
DENK 2
FvD 1


I will do the other questions later today.

[SunSt0rm]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1

first choose year and province

Thx.

Will the results today also be published here, or is there another page ?

No, live results will be at nos.nl

[Dutch Conservative]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1

first choose year and province

I also like this one for 2012 results: http://www.verkiezingskaart.nl/

[Tender Branson]

Rotterdam turnout seems to be high so far ...

More than 103.000 people have voted so far (until noon), compared with 45.000 at the same time in the 2015 provincial election.

Final turnout was 35% back then.

Final 2012 turnout in Rotterdam was only 63%. Looks like 70%+ today ...

[Tender Branson]

About 25.000 people are currently voting in Rotterdam each hour.

The city has about the same real-time reporting website as Broward County, FL - for which I also did some calculations on election day.

Peak voting in Rotterdam seems to start after 4pm, when the workers are streaming to the polls.

[Tender Branson]

It remains to be seen if this is just a Rotterdam-phenomenon, or if turnout is also up significantly in other parts of Holland.

Rotterdam might be a special case because of the Turkish riots there, which could draw a lot of people to the polls.

[Tender Branson]

Den Haag confirms the turnout surge in Rotterdam ...

Noon turnout: 23.4% (was 19.3% in 2012)

https://www.denhaag.nl/home/bewoners/gemeente/to/Tussentijdse-opkomst-Tweede-Kamerverkiezingen.htm

[Beezer]

Is there a chance of the PVV coming in first in Rotterdam, considering this was Fortuyn's hometown?

[Tender Branson]

Is there a chance of the PVV coming in first in Rotterdam, considering this was Fortuyn's hometown?

The Rotterdam result today could be really fractured, with many parties around 15-20%.

[Dutch Conservative]

Is there a chance of the PVV coming in first in Rotterdam, considering this was Fortuyn's hometown?

The Rotterdam result today could be really fractured, with many parties around 15-20%.

I agree, although I do think there is a good chance the PVV will end up as largest party. Wich parties usually profit from a higher turnout? I know the christian parties profit from a lower turnout.

[DavidB.]

Is there a chance of the PVV coming in first in Rotterdam, considering this was Fortuyn's hometown?

That is probably going to happen, though more so because it has a large white working-class population than because of a Fortuyn effect.

Turnout in Rotterdam substantially higher than in 2012: they already passed 25% and are usually notorious for having low turnout. Being cautious here, but it could be a good sign for DENK: many Muslims who usually never vote may be voting now. However, at first glance, this map doesn't suggest Geert Wilders should be pulling a Netanyahu soon:

Turnout higher in (lower) middle class district Prins Alexander (good sign for VVD and PVV), affluent district Hillegersberg-Schiebroek, the city center, white working-class area Pernis (which will vote PVV) and the separate commuter towns of Rozenburg and Hoek van Holland; lower in largely non-white areas Delfshaven, Feijenoord. The usual patterns except for Prins Alexander and Pernis, I think.

[DavidB.]

The Hague: 23.4% at 12. 2012: 19.3%. If this is the pattern outside big cities too, this may be going into the high 70s.

I agree, although I do think there is a good chance the PVV will end up as largest party. Wich parties usually profit from a higher turnout? I know the christian parties profit from a lower turnout.

High turnout is usually good for PVV, SP and 50Plus, and it could be good for DENK too. However, no certainty here, of course.

[Tender Branson]

Rotterdam has almost 30% turnout already and is still having some 24.000 votes per hour, with peak voting only starting after 4pm.

I currently expect some 340-360.000 votes there, which would be 74-79% turnout, up from 62.5% in 2012.

Cool.

[SunSt0rm]

The Hague: 23.4% at 12. 2012: 19.3%. If this is the pattern outside big cities too, this may be going into the high 70s.

I agree, although I do think there is a good chance the PVV will end up as largest party. Wich parties usually profit from a higher turnout? I know the christian parties profit from a lower turnout.

High turnout is usually good for PVV, SP and 50Plus, and it could be good for DENK too. However, no certainty here, of course.

It could also benefit GL and to a lesser extent D66, who will attract the youth vote that dont vote very often. Higher turnout will disadvantageous CDa, CU and SGP

[Tender Branson]

I'm updating my turnout prediction for Holland to 77.3% (+2.7%)

[Dutch Conservative]

Rotterdam has almost 30% turnout already and is still having some 24.000 votes per hour, with peak voting only starting after 4pm.

I currently expect some 340-360.000 votes there, which would be 74-79% turnout, up from 62.5% in 2012.

Cool.

Excellent news!

[windjammer]

I don't think anyone can really make any prediction based on turnout. Remember High turnout in dem areas for the pres election?

[Tender Branson]

I don't think anyone can really make any prediction based on turnout. Remember High turnout in dem areas for the pres election?

Yeah, hard to tell ...

Higher turnout here in Austria often benefits different parties, like in the Vienna state election in 2015 (which saw a huge turnout increase). SPÖ and FPÖ were tied in the polls, but the high turnout led to the SPÖ defeating the FPÖ by about 8% in the end.

In the presidential election, Hofer and VdB did both really well in high-turnout areas. But in the 2nd runoff, VdB benefitted more from the higher turnout. Some Hofer-voters stayed home and this was especially obvious in Hofer-strongholds from the May runoff.

[DavidB.]

Rotterdam has almost 30% turnout already and is still having some 24.000 votes per hour, with peak voting only starting after 4pm.

I currently expect some 340-360.000 votes there, which would be 74-79% turnout, up from 62.5% in 2012.

Cool.

If that's the case turnout would be over 80% nationally.

[Tender Branson]

Rotterdam has almost 30% turnout already and is still having some 24.000 votes per hour, with peak voting only starting after 4pm.

I currently expect some 340-360.000 votes there, which would be 74-79% turnout, up from 62.5% in 2012.

Cool.

If that's the case turnout would be over 80% nationally.

Well, this could be Rotterdam-specific.

We need to wait if there's also a strong increase in more suburban or rural cities.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I mean if that's the pattern nationwide.

[Tender Branson]

Take a look at this chart here:

http://www.rotterdam.nl/Clusters/BSD/Documenten%202017/Tabelopkomstcijfers_eerdere%20verkiezingen.pdf

Voting picks up significanly after 4pm to around 8pm. We need to wait and see if peak voting remains strong today after 4pm.

I will keep monitoring the real-time Rotterdam and Utrecht numbers and make updated predictions.