Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

Well, prepare for 4 months of Asscher in DWDD, Pauw, Nieuwsuur...

[Zinneke]

Its a superficial change they had to make.

[DavidB.]

"Would you like for him to get more or fewer votes in the Netherlands?"
"More, more, more!"
"Then we'll take care of that."

[DavidB.]

Not too much happened over the last two weeks, the most important issue being Rutte striking a deal with other EU leaders to add a legally binding declaration to the EU Association Agreement in which it is stated that EU member states do not have an obligation to pay more, that Ukraine will have to work on combatting corruption, that EU member states are not obliged to provide Ukraine with military assistance and that the Agreement does not necessarily constitute a first step toward the process of becoming an EU member state. A poll showed 76% of no voters do not think this was sufficient. 47% of all voters think the additional declaration is an improvement, 45% think it is not. 30% view Rutte's role in the entire referendum saga as positive, 47% as negative. 42% think that parliament should accept the Agreement in combination with the new declaration, 47% think it should not be accepted. However, the minority government already found a majority in parliament (because of D66 and GL) and will probably have one in the Senate too (because of D66, GL and CDA, but the CDA senators, who are needed, haven't confirmed their support yet).

The PVV has continued to skyrocket in the polls, while new PvdA leader Asscher hasn't gotten a "leadership bonus". Meanwhile, the VVD continues to engage in a quasi-Hillaryesque campaign ("five arguments that make your angry pro-Nexit uncle shut up!") that is absolutely foolish and may destroy the party's potential to win back VVD-PVV swing voters before March if they continue to do this. The "angry pro-Nexit uncle" probably voted VVD in the last election himself due to Rutte's populist campaign and his (broken) promises on Greece. If the VVD think they can do it without these people, they are wrong.

Meanwhile, several anonymous SP MPs gave an interview to the Algemeen Dagblad in which they criticized party leader Emile Roemer as someone who "cannot even lead his own party, let alone the country." They also said he would be "dead meat" after the election, in which the SP is poised to not gain any seats, and called that "pretty sad." Chairman Ron Meyer was also criticized for focusing the party's campaign solely on the proposed single-payer healthcare system Nationaal Zorgfonds ("which isn't even well thought-out", pretty damning criticism!) while not saying anything about immigration, integration and national security. Meyer and Roemer subsequently summoned all MPs to come by their office individually and have a meeting with them, which I imagine must have been pretty scary. It is now widely expected that Lilian Marijnissen, daughter of long-term party leader and chairman Jan Marijnissen, will become party leader after the election.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

"proposed single payer" - but Sanders fans assured me all of Europtopia had single payer! Next you'll be saying not all Europeans have free college!

[windjammer]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

[Zinneke]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

Still a long way to go. Last election SP was in a similar position around this time.

[Angel of Death]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

Where is he going to find 76 seats?

[Tender Branson]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

Where is he going to find 76 seats?

Also, where is he going to find the coalition partners that he needs for PM ?

[windjammer]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

Where is he going to find 76 seats?

his party + VVD might have 63 seats according to the polls lol.

[DavidB.]

It's still extremely unlikely that Wilders will truly become PM (and even that the PVV will be in government) but it is also true that he currently has his best shot ever.

In the event that the VVD manages to piss off the very demographic that voted them into office in 2012 -- lower middle class and middle class suburbanites -- even more with a tone-deaf campaign, many of those people could absolutely vote PVV. And if the PVV becomes the largest party by a big margin (say they win 39 and the VVD win 20; given current polling there's no reason to assume this is impossible) and the electoral landscape is incredibly divided, Wilders will have the initiative to form a government, and if, in that case, the VVD only wins about 20 seats it is very hard to see how Rutte can stay on. A Zijlstra-led VVD would perhaps make entirely different strategic choices and it is not as if the liberals care that much anyway (in 2010 they surely didn't), so they would probably be okay with a PVV-VVD government. Then the story becomes much more difficult, but other parties will realize it is either that or a terrible centrist coalition with 5+ parties which will leave them all less popular and will only make the PVV even stronger. 50Plus and the SGP could come around pretty easily, and then it's all about the CDA (which would "ensure" -- with tons of caveats -- a majority in the Senate too), which will be much more difficult. But these three parties do not have to be in government. They only have to ensure the government won't be brought down / would have to be willing to vote for the budget. It is still extremely unlikely, but it could happen if the VVD's campaign is bad. Of course, such a coalition would be able to change very little in terms of actual policy because of the influence of the CDA. Expect symbolism galore.

Still a long way to go. Last election SP was in a similar position around this time.

This is always a good thing to remember, yes.

[windjammer]

What is exactly the CDA?

[Zinneke]

What is exactly the CDA?

I'm tempted to say a standard Christian Democratic party in western Europe, but I think DavidB will tell you that they are an alliance of different confessional parties with a rich history in Dutch politics. I think right now though they are just popular in the South, especially rural Limburg, which like Flanders has this small town catholic culture that allows for clientalism. Their Flemish equivalent still has the largest trade union and mutualité (they have a pillar, a state within a state - https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilarisation) but politically are becoming less and less relevant as a lot of people no longer vote for parties out of loyalty. I imagine the same has happened to the CDA.

[freek]

What is exactly the CDA?

I'm tempted to say a standard Christian Democratic party in western Europe, but I think DavidB will tell you that they are an alliance of different confessional parties with a rich history in Dutch politics. I think right now though they are just popular in the South, especially rural Limburg, which like Flanders has this small town catholic culture that allows for clientalism. Their Flemish equivalent still has the largest trade union and mutualité (they have a pillar, a state within a state - https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilarisation) but politically are becoming less and less relevant as a lot of people no longer vote for parties out of loyalty. I imagine the same has happened to the CDA.

Secularisation is also not really helping for CDA.

Apart from that, it is very much a rural party, not just a party for the South or a Catholic party.
Areas with the highest CDA support are all rural. They either voted KVP in the past (i.e. were Catholic) or CHU (Dutch Reformed protestants, not very orthodox. Typically upper/middle class and/or from a rural area). The areas that most strongly supported CHU in the past are found in Friesland, Overijssel (west), Gelderland (east).

I guess most voters that would have voted ARP in the past have switched to either ChristenUnie or SGP (since these parties were formed by 3 waves of disillusioned ARP voters).

[DavidB.]

Happy New Year to you all!

The PVV has released its final list for the election. The list consists almost entirely of MPs, Senators, MEPs and members of the provincial councils, which unsurprisingly shows they still have a lot of trouble finding capable candidates for elected office.

The most "provocative" pick is Israeli-born Gidi Markuszower at #4, who was at #5 on the 2010 list but resigned before the election because of the fact that Dutch intelligence services thought he was too close to "certain" foreign intelligence services. Markuszower has said very un-PC things about left-wing anti-Israel Jews, a bit like my Atlas posts that tend to get deleted and then somewhat harsher, and was arrested for carrying a gun as a guard at a Jewish event while he was not allowed to do so. Markuszower reappeared in the world of politics as a Senator in 2015 and apparently Wilders doesn't care about his previous controversies anymore. I'm tempted to vote for Markuszower...

Another interesting pick is Rob de Jong at #31. Until this week, De Jong was the leader of the VVD in Haarlem. He has always been very outspoken about crime by Muslim youth, specifically hate crimes against LGBT people. De Jong quit the VVD and gave back his seat on the Haarlem city council when his "transfer" to the PVV was made public.

MP Fleur Agema and MEP Vicky Maeijer are #2 and #3 and were named "Geert's angels" by the Telegraaf, the biggest Dutch newspaper...

[DavidB.]

It's now officially election time, so political parties have started to try and please their base with little gifts. D66 MP Paul van Meenen, from Leiden, introduced a motion to allow students to use public transit for free all week; students now have to choose between travelling for free on weekdays or during the weekends. His motion was ridiculed by many, because "student party" D66, together with GL, had earlier voted along with the government to end student grants and make students dependent on loans. CDA and SP called Van Meenen "hypocritical." Meanwhile, Deputy Health Minister Martin van Rijn (PvdA) seeks to spend an additional 100 million euros on elderly care, though it is wholly unclear where that money is supposed to come from.

Meanwhile, VVD parliamentary group leader Zijlstra has stated that the PVV should have the initiative to form a government if they are to become the largest party. Guess who could become Prime Minister in that scenario...?

[DavidB.]

Some interesting developments. The PvdA campaign is focused on attacking Wilders. Given that Asscher can hardly attack the VVD while not looking like a hypocrite this is a logical choice, but it's also an absolutely horrendous one: the PvdA will convince no working-class voters with Asscher's talk on how Wilders is just as bad as rioters who burned cars and attacked the police on New Year's Eve because he would "burn the constitution" with his proposals, and urban middle-class voters, who nowadays form the party's core demographic, may go for GroenLinks or D66 anyway. An all-time low was ensured, but Asscher seems to have absolutely no idea what he's doing and may lead the party into the low teens.

Meanwhile, the SP has started its campaign, which is focused on the VVD. Train stations are riddled with posters full of angry-looking SP politicians claiming they are "ready to fight." On today's SP party conference, Roemer stated that the SP is not willing to govern with the VVD. The SP also does not want to engage in a left-wing vote surplus agreement with PvdA and GL like they did in 2012: the socialists seek to win over working-class PvdA-SP swing voters by showing them the SP is not going to accept "neoliberal" compromises like the PvdA has done in government. While Roemer is a weak leader, the campaign's angle should be more successful given the electorate's attitudes on VVD-led budget cuts on healthcare, and in the end I think they will end up with roughly the same number of seats as in 2012 (Roemer is fücked if they get fewer), perhaps making gains in Limburg and Groningen at the expense of the PvdA while losing to the PVV in the urban West.

[Beezer]

Rutte says "chances of cooperating with the PVV are zero."

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/01/15/rutte-kans-op-samenwerking-met-pvv-is-nul-a1541314

[Lord Halifax]

Rutte says "chances of cooperating with the PVV are zero."

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/01/15/rutte-kans-op-samenwerking-met-pvv-is-nul-a1541314

He would say that, wouldn't he

[Zinneke]

Rutte says "chances of cooperating with the PVV are zero."

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/01/15/rutte-kans-op-samenwerking-met-pvv-is-nul-a1541314

He would say that, wouldn't he

Again, look how well it worked with SP. Polling as high as 36 to gaining no seats.

But this is still a more surprising move IMO. The right wing of the VVD are definitely nit going to like a 5 party coalition to Rutte's left instead of a simple 3 party PVV-VVD-50+.

I would like this coalition to happen. It would kill 3 birds with one stone.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think wilders has by far the best shot but after proving he can't even support an existing center-right coalition.....how could anyone think, he is reponsible enough to lead an administration himself?

like all wilders-like politicans, he detests reponsibility and tries to dodge it as long as possible.

[mvd10]

Rutte says "chances of cooperating with the PVV are zero."

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/01/15/rutte-kans-op-samenwerking-met-pvv-is-nul-a1541314

He would say that, wouldn't he

Again, look how well it worked with SP. Polling as high as 36 to gaining no seats.

But this is still a more surprising move IMO. The right wing of the VVD are definitely nit going to like a 5 party coalition to Rutte's left instead of a simple 3 party PVV-VVD-50+.

I would like this coalition to happen. It would kill 3 birds with one stone.

But they only have 24 seats in the senate (26 if you also include SGP) and you need 38 seats for a majority in the senate. PVV-VVD-CDA-50PLUS-SGP has a majority in the senate but I can't see the CDA joining a coalition with the PVV.

VVD-CDA-D66 with support from CU and SGP (and maybe even 50PLUS) might get a majority, and I think the VVD would be fairly happy with that coalition. 50PLUS probably would support a ''neoliberal'' cabinet as long as pensions are raised. I'm not sure if D66 wants to be in a coalition with 50PLUS and 2 socially conservative parties though.

[SunSt0rm]

Rutte says "chances of cooperating with the PVV are zero."

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/01/15/rutte-kans-op-samenwerking-met-pvv-is-nul-a1541314

He would say that, wouldn't he

Again, look how well it worked with SP. Polling as high as 36 to gaining no seats.

But this is still a more surprising move IMO. The right wing of the VVD are definitely nit going to like a 5 party coalition to Rutte's left instead of a simple 3 party PVV-VVD-50+.

I would like this coalition to happen. It would kill 3 birds with one stone.

The reason the SP failed in 2012 was because Roemer underperformed in the debates.

Parliamentary VVD leader Zijlstra, who is on the right of the VVD, already says that the next coalition would not be ideal. He already distanced the VVD from the PVV in the past weeks saying that cooperation between these parties is not going to happen. And he tries to frame the PVV as economically left to the SP and socially unacceptable.

The tactic of the VVD for this election seems to attract VVD-PVV supporters by saying that a vote for PVV will be wasted anyway (similar in 2012) and by distancing itself from the PVV, it can attracts D66&CDA-VVD supporters who wants a centre right coalition but are afraid that the VVD will cooperate with the PVV.

Rutte says "chances of cooperating with the PVV are zero."

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/01/15/rutte-kans-op-samenwerking-met-pvv-is-nul-a1541314

He would say that, wouldn't he

Again, look how well it worked with SP. Polling as high as 36 to gaining no seats.

But this is still a more surprising move IMO. The right wing of the VVD are definitely nit going to like a 5 party coalition to Rutte's left instead of a simple 3 party PVV-VVD-50+.

I would like this coalition to happen. It would kill 3 birds with one stone.

But they only have 24 seats in the senate (26 if you also include SGP) and you need 38 seats for a majority in the senate. PVV-VVD-CDA-50PLUS-SGP has a majority in the senate but I can't see the CDA joining a coalition with the PVV.

VVD-CDA-D66 with support from CU and SGP (and maybe even 50PLUS) might get a majority, and I think the VVD would be fairly happy with that coalition. 50PLUS probably would support a ''neoliberal'' cabinet as long as pensions are raised. I'm not sure if D66 wants to be in a coalition with 50PLUS and 2 socially conservative parties though.

The base of D66 will definetly rebel against such a coalition with 50 plus, its base consists mainly of young people who are very against 50 plus. Moreover, the combination with social conservatives (in particular SGP) will expose d66 on the left wing.

[SunSt0rm]

The criteria to participate in the debates have been announced. The most important debate is the so-called 'Prime Minister Debate' of RTL consisting of the four main parties. These debates have changed the dynamics in the election of 2010 and 2012. In 2012, PVDA narrowingly made it to the debate (at a cost of D66) and Samsom performance give rise to the PVDA. Without that debate, the PVDA would likely not have scored that high. And in 2010, Rutte debate performances made him Prime Minister.

This year, the top 4 parties are chosen based on the average poll of begin february. With the current polls, the VVD and PVV are almost guaranteed to be invited. However, the third and fourth position are less clear. Five parties have have a shot to make it to that debate: D66, CDA, GL, PVDA and SP.

The average polls so far are:
D66 9.9%
GL 9.6%
CDA 9.4%
PVDA 8.2%
SP 7.8%

The reason it is important is that I expect that the left vote will consolidate to one left party in the end and the one that is invited to the debate will have much higher chance to be that one.

[DavidB.]

Rutte says "chances of cooperating with the PVV are zero."

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/01/15/rutte-kans-op-samenwerking-met-pvv-is-nul-a1541314

It's important to note that this doesn't actually mean he won't cooperate with the PVV (even if it's obvious that such cooperation is going to be tricky, but that has been obvious ever since the collapse of Rutte-I). It is just a tactical ploy to make sure the VVD wins as many seats as possible in the election, and what happens afterwards will be solved then. It's the way Rutte has always dealt with every problem or crisis. The reasoning for him to say this is as follows: he wants to max out the VVD vote in a two-horse race situation, which has worked wonders for him and the party in 2010 and 2012.

While there's no reason whatsoever for people to really be afraid of "PM Wilders" if the VVD does not want to cooperate with him (for who else would?), Rutte presents himself as the leader who has taken responsibility in difficult times, the optimist who has made unpopular decisions in the interest of the "hard-working Dutch" -- as opposed to Geert Wilders, who is portrayed as an extremist who says crazy things and does not want to take responsibility. In that way, he wants people to cast a tactical vote for him. If he doesn't exclude the possibility of cooperation with the PVV, VVD-D66 swing voters (and, to a smaller extent, VVD-CDA swing voters) are obviously not going to vote for the VVD.

It is a gamble that could very well turn out to be successful (never underestimate the VVD machine), but I am skeptical about this strategy. It would be erroneous to assume non-right-wing voters are going to flock to the VVD. There are VVD-D66 swing voters and VVD-CDA swing voters who will vote for Rutte if a two-horse race between him and Wilders will actually happen (which, in itself, is doubtful for several reasons), but those will not amount to more than, say, five seats; meanwhile, there are still quite some seats to lose on Rutte's right. It's important to realize the VVD can lose quite some more seats to the PVV than is now the case, and from the tone of the party's campaign I sense that they underestimate this. Rutte has gone quite "hard right" in 2010 and even more in 2012, which has led to the party's big margins in Western suburbia and exurbia and its unprecedented gains in the South. Those margins and gains were absolutely necessary for the party's election wins, and these are exactly the voters the VVD could lose if the party doesn't understand right-wing talk is needed to win the election. Rutte is playing with fire if he thinks the VVD has lost their "deplorables" anyway and generic right-wing talk on the economy will do the job. The mood in the country is quite different. But no one should underestimate Rutte and I'd still bet my money on him staying on as PM after the election (my gut feeling still says the PVV is going to bomb and the VVD is going to be the largest party, but then again I thought Hillary would become president so...).

The reason it is important is that I expect that the left vote will consolidate to one left party in the end and the one that is invited to the debate will have much higher chance to be that one.

I don't expect the left-wing vote to consolidate behind one progressive party, at least not the way it did in 2010 and 2012. This could only happen with the PvdA, and they are simply too weak for that to ever happen right now. D66 are too far to the right economically for a lot of self-identifying leftists, and while GL could make life horrible for Alexander Pechtold, they are not really going to get more than 23 seats or so.

However, I agree with your conclusion that it is extremely important for all those leaders to be invited to the debate. The most visible left-wing/progressive leader can win voters over from other progressive parties. By February 26 there will still be tons of late deciders, people who have no idea whom they will vote for. If Pechtold isn't invited, his tenure as D66 leader will basically go down as disappointing: the man who was always going to win the next election yet never actually managed to do so. If Klaver isn't invited, which is unlikely given that the GL polling average currently trends strongly upward, the entire story about Klaver as the single progressive alternative to the neoliberals/"economism" may be over immediately. If Asscher isn't invited, which is actually pretty likely, that would obviously be an unmitigated disaster for the PvdA (who's going to be the next leader?). If Roemer isn't invited, which almost seems sure at this point, the SP will face its third disappointing general election result in a row, which is bizarre especially given the fact that the PvdA have been in a very unpopular, austere government for over four years. The only one who could deal with not being at the debate is Buma.

The polling average is decided on the basis of the Peilingwijzer.

As for 50Plus... 37% of their voters would prefer Wilders as PM over Asscher and Rutte. This tells me once again that a substantial part of 50Plus' current virtual electorate are actually going to vote for the PVV. They just don't know it yet, or aren't ready to admit it.

(Also lol @ 11% of PvdA voters preferring Rutte over Asscher)