NJ Elections : Poll - Dems have edge going into election --- More on Elections

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.politicsnj.com/eagleton-poll-coming-tomorrow-13179

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http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/24/nyregion/24jersey.html?ref=nyregion
"South Jersey Democrats Poised to Shake Things Up "

Since the poll crosses the entire state, it's what I'd expect.  What really matters is how well Republicans are doing in about five or six state legislative districts across the state, almost all of which have a natural preference for the GOP: LD 1, 2, 8, 12, 14, and 39.

Sadly, the poll is useless.  I'd have much rather seen something like FDU did in 2003—polls of individual districts.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think Dems have a great chance to pick up seats in D1, 2, and 8. I think Baroni will win in 14 and that Karcher's seat is too close to call.

I agree on 1, 2, 12, and 14.  I think Democrats will ultimately fall short in District 8, but may have a shot at some Burlco Freeholder seats.

I am betting that Van Drew, Whelan, and Karcher will win. I have doubts of Bodine. Baroni will win in what ought to be a landslide.

I think Dems will increase in Senate for sure and that they will probably either break even or add to the assembly.

Dems gaining seats in the Senate is a no brainer, but I'm not sure the math is there to favor Democrats picking up seats in the Assembly.  Right off the bat, Republicans are strongly favored to pick up the Bodine seat in LD8 even if Bodine does win on top of the ballot, so that's R+1 to start.

Democrats are playing pure defense in LD1, and again, without Van Drew on the Assembly ticket (Albano who?), Republicans have a decent shot at picking up one or two seats there—especially the open Van Drew seat.  (I think Albano is narrowly favored for re-election.)

In LD2, Amodeo looks like a strong bet to hold the Blee (open) seat—he's definitely running far ahead of his competition.  I don't know if Republicans can pick up the open Whelan seat (the government shutdown puts a big question mark on the way this district will react to boosting a Democratic majority).  And if Amodeo runs huge numbers, Democrats are going to have problems with the 2nd seat simply because coattails are HUGE factors in two-seat Assembly races.

LD7 is a underfunded longshot (Diane Allen usually has coattails, so who knows).  I don't think the GOP will seriously pick up either Assembly seat, but since both are held by Democrats, the GOP has a free shot here.

The real action in LD8 is for Senate.  It's only in play because of Bodine's name and connections.  Democrats seem unlikely to win an Assembly seat here.

In LD12, Declan O'Scanlon seems to be the most likely replacement for Jen Beck—after all, he lost to Panter within the margin of error in 2005.  I don't think Panter will go down, but that's not needed for the GOP to boost their majority.  If Democrats are going to pad their Assembly numbers, they NEED to pick up a seat here.  It's just not going to happen in LD2.

The Clean Elections law totally screws the Democrats over in LD14—they can't follow the usual path to victory, which is to spend Republicans into the ground.  Baroni is a clear winner—like, 60+% of the vote winner—and this seems likely to keep his Assembly seat in Republican hands.  I don't think Greenstein will be a victim in all of this...she's weak in Trenton but strong at the ballot box.  My guess is that Goodwin takes a very narrow 2nd behind Greenstein based on his strength in Hamilton, with Bushman just out of contention in third.  (Further, I'd say Republicans come very close to knocking off Gilmore.)

In LD39, Bergen Dems are pretty strongly playing, but I think they'll come up short.  It's still a pretty Republican chunk of the county.

So, to sum things up, Republicans are way better than 50-50 to pick up the Bodine seat, and at least slightly better than 50-50 to hold all their open seats.  Or, at least, to replace lost seats with a picked up seat in LD1 or 2.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm very hesitant to share news from the subscription-only Politifax, but the stuff in here is already floating around New Jersey's political circles, so...

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And, what else is going on?

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And one more.

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There's a lot more good stuff in there............but if you want to know what, fork over some cash and subscribe.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PoliticsNJ is reporting that Dick Codey is pulling out of the 39th Senate race, essentially ceding the district to the incumbent Republicans.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm very hesitant to share news from the subscription-only Politifax, but the stuff in here is already floating around New Jersey's political circles, so...

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And, what else is going on?

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And one more.

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There's a lot more good stuff in there............but if you want to know what, fork over some cash and subscribe.

This is what sucks about not being home in NJ! I don't get to read the very over charged Politifax!

Well, I guess the reason why Nick has to overcharge is because bastards like me spread around the news for free.  Seriously though, if you've got a job in the political field, its well worth its price.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Actually, according to PoliticsNJ today, Jen Beck is solidly in the lead.

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I'm moving this out of my own personal "toss-up" category to "lean Republican."  Probably means Panter is sweating a bit, too.

I anticipate Republicans will be going in to the next session with a 23-17 deficit in the State Senate, and a 48-32 deficit in the State Assembly.  This election cycle so far has not been going as well for Democrats as I expected—especially considering how poorly Republicans did in the recruiting game.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If the voters of New Jersey are stupid enough to increase the Democratic legislative majority, they will pay a very serious price; both monetary and in their quality of life.

New Jersey had a decade of all-Republican government and is only mid-way through a comparable amount of time with the Democrats. Property taxes went up under both administrations, and I defy anyone to explain how a Republican Trenton is going to improve quality of life in New Jersey, which seems driven by traffic, high housing costs, and continued development in a state that is already the most densely populated in the country. They can't, because these problems don't have easy solutions.

Perhaps in another few years Republicans can count on a "throw the bums out" election that gives them a chance to feed at the trough without resolving any of these problems and piling up more debt than usual because of tax cuts without any changes in spending, but in the Bush era, New Jersey seems comfortable with the Democratic bums.

Trust me, New Jersey is not "comfortable with the Democratic bums."  New Jersey is very unhappy with its government (look at the numbers).  Problem for Republicans is that New Jersey is even less comfortable with Republicans.  (Fortunately for Republicans this cycle, all the battlegrounds are on GOP turf.)

Personally, I'd just like to see enough New Jersey Republicans in either house to put at least some kind of check on an all-Democratic government.  The State Senate is the logical place, where the GOP would have a say on judges and contracts.

The only thing I worry about is that Republicans and Democrats might actually work together as a team, and instead of 22 Senators working as a team to pass sweetheart contracts, we'd have 40 Senators working as a team.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

For those interested, PoliticsNJ updated their Prall Report a couple days back.

http://www.politicsnj.com/files/prall102507.pdf

They're calling the Senate at 22D, 17R, 1 toss-up (currently 22D, 18R).  In the State Assembly, it's 45D, 29R, with 6 toss-ups (currently 50D, 30R).

They're calling for three takeovers so far: In the State Senate, Sen. Ellen Karcher (D-12) and Sen. Nick Asselta (R-01) are in undeniable trouble; Republicans are favored to pick up the open seat in Assembly 08 vacated by party-switcher Fran Bodine (R-turned-D).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

Ellen Karcher's campaign has nothing to do with the quality of Beck's. I never said Karcher was running a good, bad, or bland campaign. We all know how she first won the seat, too. It was a great coup.  If Beck wins, it's because of a piss-poor campaign by Karcher in an already GOP district in what should have been an anti-Dem mood statewide.

I'm somewhat curious: What about Jen Beck's campaign seems to strike you as "poor"?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Some more polling bits and pieces today, from assorted sources:

Why Codey pulling his financial backing out of District 39:

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In the District 2 Assembly races, Republicans are slightly favored to win both seats.  The district is currently split 1D, 1R; both are open seats.

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[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

Ellen Karcher's campaign has nothing to do with the quality of Beck's. I never said Karcher was running a good, bad, or bland campaign. We all know how she first won the seat, too. It was a great coup.  If Beck wins, it's because of a piss-poor campaign by Karcher in an already GOP district in what should have been an anti-Dem mood statewide.

I'm somewhat curious: What about Jen Beck's campaign seems to strike you as "poor"?

What makes you say Beck's conducting a good campaign? You seem to think that because Karcher's is bad, that must make Beck's good. All Beck does is complain about Karcher and her money and how she will be smeared. She's a whiner.

Well, part of running a good campaign is capitalizing on your opponent's mistakes.  Beck is clearly getting mileage out of Karcher's "farm" deduction and oversight in reporting her Christmas tree income.  It may be small potatoes, but any potatoes are big potatoes when you consider the entire 2003 campaign was waged solely on the issue of ethics.

Polling on both sides show that Karcher's numbers took a marked hit after Beck launched the attack.  It's moved the race out of the toss-up category, and made Karcher an underdog.  Not a sign of a weak campaign, especially considering Beck's very limited media budget.

I also need to hand it to Beck for taking a page from the Baroni book and actually waging a real, significant door-to-door campaign.  Beck has reportedly knocked on 10k doors district-wide thus far.

It's also a very Republican district, and I think bringing up the specter of Camden County Democrats is something that will resonate among the swing voters who went for Bennett in 2001, for Karcher in 2003, and for Beck in 2005.  Karcher needs to argue that she's an independent voice for Monmouth County.  Beck needs to show that she's ultimately beholden to the party bosses.  (I've seen other GOP campaigns pull some very stunning upsets by playing the Norcross card—Rau-Hatton's big '06 win immediately comes to mind.)

I guess you view that all as "whining."  Still, the most logical way for a challenger to defeat an incumbent is to point out the incumbent's shortcomings.  Beck's doing that with very little money, and honestly, running one of the best campaigns in the state right now.

False. That's a historical fact; it's over and done with. I was referring to the current political mood which one can't get by a poll, which isn't publicly released either, while living hundreds of miles away.

It's true, all I have to go on is a deep, inside knowledge of the political machinations of the Garden State, lots of insider reports, and an extensive rolodex of contacts on both sides of the aisle from my days as a reporter.  I know nothing compared to someone who physically lives in New Jersey. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Also, lest I forget—the Beck campaign was able to arrange a last-minute campaign stop by Rudy Giuliani.  That's a huge "get," especially for a State Senate challenger.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Some campaign spending numbers for targeted districts in New Jersey.  Keep in mind that Senate and Assembly candidates oft have combined accounts, so the totals here are district-wide (one Senate seat, two Assembly seats).

http://www.politicsnj.com/money-race-13479

Most eye-opening number:

DISTRICT 12
All Democrats
Received: 4.270 million
Spent: 4.046 million
On hand: 223,589.40

All Republicans
Received: 658,695.10
Spent: 563,245.30
On hand: 107,055.20

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

There can also be as much as 800K to 1M dollars thrown into D1 and D2 races in this last week.

From Dick Codey alone.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

There can also be as much as 800K to 1M dollars thrown into D1 and D2 races in this last week.

From Dick Codey alone.

Correct, from Dick Codey but through the Senate Majority PAC.

I'd also count on another $1M to D2 (possibly to D1 as well) from Norcross.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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http://www.politicsnj.com/poll-whelan-leads-mccullough-asselta-race-dead-heat-13701

Interesting results.  With the GOP set to gain a seat in Assy 01 and Assy 02 (combined with the supposed easy pickup in Assy 08), it is getting all but impossible for Democrats to hold their 50–30 Assembly advantage.  I'm revising my prediction to a GOP gain of 3 in the Assembly.

And if Van Drew really is ahead of Asselta by a mere 3, Democrats may not be guaranteed a net pick-up in the Senate.  Still, I think we're looking at 23D–17R.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I am in denial over Karcher's seat. She's a good legislator who's being brought down by her own party's leadership with their half assed ethics reform.
I am going to say dems net -1 to -3 in the Assembly and net 2 still in the senate. I am going to go against the odds and say Karcher will win even though I am in some state of denial over it.

I'd be more upset to see Panter lose than to see Karcher lose.  Karcher brought her loss upon herself by not living up to her own ethical standards, and I think Jen Beck will be a strong replacement.

I don't like the fact that the next State Legislative session will be without either Asselta or Van Drew—both are terrific legislators.  Greenstein is an inherently weak legislator, and I think the Democratic party (and the district) would honestly be better off if she lost out to her running mate this Tuesday.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I am in denial over Karcher's seat. She's a good legislator who's being brought down by her own party's leadership with their half assed ethics reform.
I am going to say dems net -1 to -3 in the Assembly and net 2 still in the senate. I am going to go against the odds and say Karcher will win even though I am in some state of denial over it.

I'd be more upset to see Panter lose than to see Karcher lose.  Karcher brought her loss upon herself by not living up to her own ethical standards, and I think Jen Beck will be a strong replacement.

I don't like the fact that the next State Legislative session will be without either Asselta or Van Drew—both are terrific legislators.  Greenstein is an inherently weak legislator, and I think the Democratic party (and the district) would honestly be better off if she lost out to her running mate this Tuesday.

I'd have to agree with everything you said but I don't think Beck will be any good.

Let me add this too: Republican Phil Haines makes a better Democrat than Democrat Fran Bodine does in District 8.  I can't think of a reason why any Democrat in the world should want to vote for the more conservative (and not-so-squeaky-clean) Bodine in that race—he's literally a DINO.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My mother lives in the 12th and just asked me whom to vote for. She just wants her taxes lowered and has met both women at an event at her community, a 55+ active adults development that sprung up after 2003 and is full of Democratic voters.

I told her first that neither senator was going to lower her taxes. Then I gave her arguments for and against Karcher and Beck that I gleaned from politicsnj.com. Although I'm a Democrat, I don't give a damn for N.J. politics and respect both sides there. I said Karcher will never do what she ran to do in '03, because the leadership won't let it happen, but Beck hasn't done anything in the Assembly and wasn't going to accomplish anything as a senator, although competition in the Senate would be good. I finished up by saying that at least Karcher will have to be responsive to constituents in her district, being as Republican as it is, while if Beck wins she'll never have to campaign for reelection again unless/until she gets caught with her hand in the cookie jar.

I'm curious to hear which way she votes.

Panter/O'Scanlon/etc. never came up and I would have punted completely.

Beck will likely have to campaign again in four years, especially if Panter lasts through 2007 and 2009.

I've honestly never met Beck, but I've talked with Panter a number of times.  He's a great guy, and assumedly a better candidate for office than Karcher.

My mother and I had a similar conversation, but instead of District 12, she wants to know how to vote in District 23.  She's voting against Lance because she didn't like how he was dressed when he showed up to a Memorial Day 1997 event; voting against Karrow because I told her about her assault problems; and voting against Doherty because he's a 'Mountain Man' loon.

I think it's going to be largely Democrats and write-in votes.  She's been on an anti-incumbent tear since voting third party in the Ferguson/Stender race.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Mr. Moderate, will the NJN Election Coverage be available to watch online as well? I hate not being home on Election Day!

I assume so.  It was streaming online in 2005.

The coverage is terrific, but the raw numbers at the bottom of the screen are too small and pixelated to read.  I don't know how crucial all that is, though, since PoliticsNJ had the results down to the penny in 2003 only a short time after the polls closed.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My calls.

SENATE (pickups in bold)
01 - Van Drew by 4.1%.
02 - Whelan by 10.2%.
07 - Allen by 22.3%.
08 - Haines by 5.1%.
11 - S. Kean by 17.3%.
12 - Beck by 0.8%.
14 - Baroni by 19.5%.
39 - Cardinale by 13.8%.

NET: 1 Dem pickup (01, 02, 12).

ASSEMBLY (pickups in bold)
01 - Albano (1), Donahue (2), Clark (3), Milam (4)
02 - Polistina (1), Amodeo (2), Wilkins (3), Spellman (4)
08 - Rudder (1), Addiego (2), Riley (3), Fifis (4)
11 - Rible (1), Angelini (2), Napolitani (3), Pirnat (4)
12 - Panter (1), O'Scanlon (2), Casagrande (3), Mallet (4)
14 - Greenstein (1), Goodwin (2), Bushman (3), D'Angelo (4)
36 - Scalera (1), Schaer (2), Pio Costa (3), Diorio (4)
39 - Vandervalk (1), Rooney (2), Manna (3), Fletcher (4)

NET: 3 GOP pickups (01, 02, 08).

I anticipate Assembly 8 and 39 to be much closer than I had previously thought.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

New Jersey Election Results live: http://www.njn.net/television/webcast/livestreaming.html

Coverage has already started; polls close at 8 PM.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Assembly:
Milam looks to probably be home safe in the 1st district. With Cape May County mostly in, Milam leads Donohue by a little over 1,000 votes, and Cape May County is the most Republican of the three counties in the district.

Ironically, though, Van Drew was expected to run strongest in Cape May County, having to run up a significant enough lead there to overcome Asselta's lead from his home base around Vineland.