Is Ohio for Republicans what Colorado is for Democrats? (user search)
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  Is Ohio for Republicans what Colorado is for Democrats? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is Ohio for Republicans what Colorado is for Democrats?  (Read 985 times)
Nyssus
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Posts: 490
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« on: February 09, 2018, 09:20:37 PM »

I think OH is probably no longer a perfect bellwether, since the Democrats can now afford to lose it narrowly (by less than 5% or so) while still winning nationally (remember that final 2016 pre-Election Day polls had Trump winning by 2-4% instead of 8-10%, so a significantly narrower Trump win in OH would likely have meant MI & PA staying D).

On the other hand, I don't think OH is a "lost cause" for the Democrats in the same way MO might be, since the counties which Trump flipped in 2016 (mostly in the north central & northeastern parts of the state) all had a Republican vote share of less than 60%, meaning that they (along with the state overall) can flip back to the Democrats if they win nationally by modest (Obama 2012-esque) margins or better.
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